Ohio State vs. Indiana Betting Preview: Odds Show Value on Buckeyes (Saturday, Oct. 23)

Ohio State vs. Indiana Betting Preview: Odds Show Value on Buckeyes (Saturday, Oct. 23) article feature image
Credit:

Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: C.J. Stroud.

Ohio State vs. Indiana Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
7:30 p.m. ET
ABC
Ohio State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-21.5
-109
59
-109o / -112u
-2000
Indiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+21.5
-120
59
-109o / -112u
+900
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

It’s not too often that Indiana gets the spotlight of hosting a prime-time game in front of a national audience.

The Hoosiers welcome the Ohio State Buckeyes to town, though the circumstances are a lot different from last year when both teams were undefeated and ranked in the top 10.

The Buckeyes come into this year’s matchup at 5-1 and still No. 5 and are in the range of 21-point favorites once again. The Buckeyes are once again chasing a Big Ten Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff.

However, Indiana has regressed to 2-4. Last year, the Hoosiers covered as 21-point underdogs at the Horseshoe.

But they may not have enough offense to keep up this year.


Ohio State Buckeyes

After a slow start to the year, the Buckeyes started to get on a roll offensively heading into the bye week. The Buckeyes lead the FBS in scoring at 48.5 PPG, but that number has jumped to 59 PPG in the last three games.

Playing against Akron, Maryland, and Rutgers helps that number, but so has the emergence of true freshman running back Treyveon Henderson.

Henderson burst onto the scene after his 277-yard performance against Tulsa. He leads the team with 612 yards rushing and nine touchdowns.

First-year starting quarterback C.J. Stroud has looked much more settled in the pocket in the last few games as well. He is completing 66% of his passes and has an 18:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba make up the best trio of receivers in the country, but they will be tested by a solid Indiana secondary.

Ohio State also made significant strides on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes have allowed 12 PPG in their last three games compared to 26 PPG in the first three. They’re also starting to get healthier on defense as they are expected to get back cornerback Cameron Brown and possibly defensive end Tyreke Smith.

Even without Smith for the last three games, the Buckeyes have been able to create disruption. The Buckeyes are 21st in Havoc, 18th in Pass Rush, 16th in Rush Success Rate and 14th in Line Yards.

However, the Buckeyes are 103rd in passing yards allowed per game and 83rd in Pass Success Rate.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana has struggled to do much of anything offensively this season.

Starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was ineffective before he went down with a shoulder injury, and he is out again this week as backup Jack Tuttle starts.

Tuttle tossed two interceptions against Michigan State, and now head coach Tom Allen is planning to get true freshman Donaven McCulley more incorporated in over the next few weeks.

The Hoosiers are 121st in Pass Success Rate, but they haven’t had much success on the ground either.

After the transfers by Sampson James and Tim Baldwin and the season-ending injury for David Ellis, Indiana is now without 88% of its running back production from last season. Beyond starter Stephen Carr, the Hoosiers are now down to walk-ons.

The Hoosiers rank 95th in Rush Success Rate and 100th in Line Yards. In three games against Big Ten opponents this season, Indiana is averaging seven points per game.

Indiana’s defense has been solid this season and is coming off its best performance of the season against Michigan State. Indiana held the Spartans to 241 yards of total offense and forced two turnovers.

For the season, the Hoosiers are 36th in total defense and 30th in yards per play allowed.

Going against this Ohio State offense, however, Indiana will be at a significant disadvantage in most areas. Indiana is 79th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and now will have to contend with Ohio State’s big offensive line and trio of running backs led by Henderson.

The Hoosiers are 104th in pass-rush grade, 71st in Havoc, and 85th in Finishing Drives.


Ohio State vs. Indiana Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Indiana match up statistically:

Ohio State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 17 79
Line Yards 3 37
Pass Success 6 61
Pass Blocking** 25 104
Big Play 2 87
Havoc 3 71
Finishing Drives 6 85
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Indiana Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 95 16
Line Yards 100 14
Pass Success 121 83
Pass Blocking** 73 18
Big Play 113 77
Havoc 44 21
Finishing Drives 89 27
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 75 11
Coverage 47 36
Middle 8 16 102
SP+ Special Teams 1 83
Plays per Minute 25 59
Rush Rate 51.4% (84) 48.3% (109)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Ohio State vs. Indiana Betting Pick

Indiana’s defense is going to compete and make things difficult on Ohio State’s offense early on. However, the Buckeyes have too many weapons for Indiana to contain over the course of the full game.

The Buckeyes rank second in big-play rate and are capable to striking at any time. Ohio State also ranks sixth in Finishing Drives. It’s going to move the ball against this Indiana defense, and when it crosses the Hoosiers’ 40, it’s going to capitalize.

However, Indiana is going to struggle to keep up with Ohio State offensively. Indiana doesn’t create many explosive plays and doesn’t finish its drives at a high rate.

I see Ohio State opening up a lead and running away in the second half.  It’s a big line, but I’m comfortable backing the Buckeyes here.

Pick: Ohio State -21

How would you rate this article?