Oklahoma State vs. Baylor College Football Odds & Picks: Big 12 Betting Value Lies With Cowboys
Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Sanders (3) and Tylan Wallace (2).
- After getting knocked out of Big 12 title contention, the Oklahoma State Cowboys will travel to Waco to take on the Baylor Bears on Saturday.
- The Pokes now have to shift their attention from a potential Big 12 Championship berth to making a quality bowl game.
- Pat McMahon breaks down whether or not the Cowboys can bounce back below.
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Odds
|Oklahoma State Odds||-4.5 [BET NOW]|
|Baylor Odds||+4.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-215/+172 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||49.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 7 p.m. ET|
The Oklahoma State Cowboys head to Waco, Texas, on Saturday to take on the Baylor Bears in the final game of the regular season for both teams.
The Cowboys were officially eliminated from the Big 12 Championship race last weekend after losing to TCU on the road.
With that goal out of reach, head coach Mike Gundy still gets another valuable chance to evaluate his talented young quarterback and new breakout star running back while also trying to earn a bid to a quality bowl game.
Baylor’s 2020 season has been filled with disappointment, and the Bears enter Saturday’s finale with a 2-6 record. Dave Aranda still has his team playing hard, and the Bears would love to send off senior quarterback Charlier Brewer with an upset win at home in his final collegiate game.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys offense entered this season with very high expectations. The offense is filled with talent but has been hit hard by the injury bug. Running back Chuba Hubbard and wide receiver Tylan Wallace are two of the most talented players in the country at their positions, but both have dealt with injuries recently.
Many expected sophomore quarterback Spencer Sanders to make a huge leap in his sophomore campaign, but he was hurt in the season opener and has dealt with other minor injuries throughout the season.
Hubbard has missed the last two games and is questionable against Baylor, but the running game hasn’t missed a beat in his absence. JUCO transfer Dezmon Jackson has been phenomenal over the past two games, posting 353 yards and four touchdowns.
No matter who is in the backfield, the running game has been the strength of the offense all season. The Cowboys have the 44th-best rushing offense in the nation, averaging 187 yards per game on the ground.
The passing game is a different story, as Sanders hasn’t established any sort of consistency. The injury issues haven’t helped, but even when healthy, Sanders just hasn’t been able to get in a rhythm. Sanders is throwing for only 169 yards per game and has just seven touchdowns and six interceptions.
In last week’s loss to TCU, Sanders threw a costly interception in the end zone with four minutes left and the Cowboys trailing by seven. That was essentially the nail in the coffin in a very frustrating performance from the Oklahoma State offense.
The Cowboys returned 10 starters from last year’s defense, and the experience has done wonders for this unit. The defense has played at a high level most of the season and is the clear strength of the team.
The Cowboys have excelled at defending the pass in a pass-happy league, allowing just 218 yards per game through the air. They’ve been less successful defending the run, surrendering over 170 yards per game on the ground and 4.2 yards per carry.
Luckily for the Cowboys defense, Baylor has one of the worst running games in college football and won’t be able to exploit its front seven.
It’s been a forgettable season for the Baylor offense in Year 1 of the Dave Aranda era. The Bears are averaging just 25.9 points per game and rank 109th in the nation in total offense.
Despite having a pair of talented senior running backs, Baylor has struggled mightily to establish the run. The Bears rank 122nd in rushing offense with just 93 yards per game and 2.78 yards per carry.
Trestan Ebner has been awesome in the return game but is struggling as a runner, posting just 2.1 yards per carry. No other Bears running back has established himself as the go-to-guy, and the offensive line play has been poor as well.
The Bears’ passing game has been better but lacks consistency. Brewer is completing 63% of his passes and has 14 touchdowns and eight picks on the year.
He had his best game of the season two weeks ago in Baylor’s victory over Kansas State when he threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. Last week against Oklahoma, however, he struggled when tasked to throw the ball 56 times in an attempt to bring the Bears back from behind.
That’s pretty much been the story all season, as Baylor has found success moving the ball in close games or when playing with the lead but has struggled when playing from behind and becoming one-dimensional.
The Bears quietly have one of the best defenses in the Big 12. They rank 33rd in the nation in total defense and are allowing only 5.2 yards per play.
Despite returning only one full-time starter from last season, the Baylor secondary has been outstanding. The Bears are limiting opponents to only 185 yards per game through the air, and they have 10 interceptions while allowing only nine passing touchdowns. They face a really tough Cowboys receiving corps, but their performance to date indicates they’ll be up for the challenge.
Baylor hasn’t been as strong against the run, which could be a concern against Jackson and a strong Oklahoma State running game. However, the Bears are coming off a great defensive performance against Oklahoma last week, limiting the Sooners to only 2.5 yards per carry.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With a pair of the Big 12’s best defenses taking the field, this game will likely come down to which offense can generate more big plays.
Sanders and Brewer have both been mediocre this year, but Sanders has more talented weapons surrounding him and a much stronger running game to lean on. Wallace did leave the TCU game with an injury in the fourth quarter, and his status is something to monitor prior to kickoff. As long as Wallace is good to go, I expect Sanders to have a big bounce-back game.
The Cowboys have a significant edge in talent, and as long as they can limit mistakes, they should be able to control things on both sides of the ball. I like Oklahoma State to pull out the win in Waco by a touchdown or more.
Pick: Oklahoma State -5 (up to -7).