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Oregon vs BYU Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under

Oregon vs BYU Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under article feature image
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Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon QB Bo Nix

Oregon vs BYU Odds

Saturday, Sept. 17
3:30 p.m. ET
FOX
Oregon Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3.5
-110
58.5
-105o / -115u
-164
BYU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3.5
-110
58.5
-105o / -115u
+136
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Kalani Sitake entered his weekly press conference and labeled Oregon “a great challenge.” The seventh-year coach could say that just about every week on BYU’s schedule, which includes games against Notre Dame, Arkansas and Stanford.

Considering they already faced (and defeated) Baylor last week, BYU has one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

After beating the Bears at home, the question for Sitake is whether the Cougars can bring the same energy when they hit the road for the second time.

Oregon recovered after its Week 1 blowout loss to Georgia. Head coach Dan Lanning is still looking for the offense to peak in explosive plays, specifically in blocking downfield. Against Eastern Washington, the defense gave up two touchdown drives that equaled 19 total plays.

The Ducks are a work in progress with their new coach and quarterback, but a victory at home over a soaring Cougars squad would signify the Ducks are ready for Pac-12 play.


Oregon Ducks

The Ducks posted a 70-spot against an Eastern Washington team that annually makes an appearance in the FCS playoffs.

The win is tough to gauge in translation to the remaining Power Five schedule, though, as the Eagles lost their offensive coordinator and previously beat Tennessee State by just a score.

A five-touchdown performance from Bo Nix is a surefire way to have the former Auburn quarterback riding high heading into BYU.

📺 The Bo Nix Show 📺 @oregonfootball | @sproutsfm pic.twitter.com/7E1ewwDUUg

— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) September 11, 2022

Nix did not log a single Big Time Throw against Eastern Washington, allowing Troy Franklin and Dont’e Thornton to generate a high number of yards after catch.

The offense generated 33 missed tackles through the air and ground, with a handful of running backs generating an average greater than 3.6 yards after contact.

The offensive line has been excellent in pass and run blocking, but the inability of Nix to make the explosive play in passing downs is a concern.

Lanning specializes in defense after serving as the coordinator at Georgia for a handful of seasons. The overall statistics cannot be trusted after two contrasting games against the Bulldogs and an FCS offense breaking in a new coordinator, though.

The biggest area of concern is the missed tackles from the linebacker unit. Jackson LaDuke, Jeffrey Bassa and Justin Flowe all lead the team in missed tackles. While there has been good play out of the corners, defending Roberts or possibly the returning Nacua will be of the utmost importance.

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BYU Cougars

Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick has put together two impressive showings without the services of the Cougars’ top two targets: Wide receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney. Nacua suffered a high ankle sprain that limited the NFL prospect to just one target against South Florida.

If the two star receivers are unable to play, Chase Roberts and his 3.26 yards per route run are still available:

Jaren Hall wow

Chase Roberts wower pic.twitter.com/i8cv1se6TX

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 11, 2022

Quarterback Jaren Hall has done just enough to lead BYU despite an average depth of target drop to 7.6 and the highest Turnover Worthy Play percentage in his career. The return of Nacua and Romney is sure to improve Hall’s numbers, as the defense will be a key part of victory in Eugene.

The Cougars are top-25 in Defensive Success Rate, ranking 11th in Passing Success Rate defense. BYU was excellent in getting Baylor and South Florida into passing downs, but issues persist in creating Havoc: BYU has forced just eight tackles for loss and has yet to create a forced fumble.

South Florida and Baylor struggled to get offensive drives into scoring position, but when they did, BYU’s defense could stop them — the Cougars are allowing a high 5.8 points to opponents that cross the 40-yard line.


Oregon vs BYU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and BYU match up statistically:

BYU Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 48 64
Line Yards 108 125
Pass Success 54 125
Pass Blocking** 2 79
Havoc 55 110
Finishing Drives 73 131
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oregon Offense vs. BYU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 33 28
Line Yards 24 101
Pass Success 59 11
Pass Blocking** 6 99
Havoc 29 112
Finishing Drives 37 127
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 15 123
PFF Coverage 59 128
SP+ Special Teams 124 56
Seconds per Play 25.5 (55) 25.7 (58)
Rush Rate 49.3% (81) 50.3% (73)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Oregon vs BYU Betting Pick

Oregon is dead-last nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives — a calculation of drives that extend past the 40-yard line and end in points.

Missed tackles persisted against Eastern Washington — primarily from a players who logged second-half snaps — but all signals point to BYU’s offense continuing with its explosive plays against Oregon. The Cougars are 10th in Standard Downs Explosiveness — an area the Ducks have struggled on defense so far.

Graded as the second-best team in pass blocking, BYU is sure to have more tricks in the bag.

DOUBLE PASS 🚨

Jaren Hall takes it in for SIX as a receiver! @BYUfootball

pic.twitter.com/w9MoAnohTe

— 247Sports (@247Sports) September 11, 2022

 

No Oregon defender has logged a forced incompletion, while safety Bennett Williams is one of the lowest-graded players of any at his position with more than 50 pass-coverage snaps.

The question is whether Nix will have the same success against the BYU defense. The Cougars are 99th in pass rush with one of the lowest Havoc rankings nationally.

Although BYU is undefeated, Sitake’s defense is near dead-last in defending the explosive play on passing downs.

There’s reason to think Nix will have success against a defense that is currently 127th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

Expect Hall to attack the Oregon linebacker unit with one of the poorest tackling grades in the nation. Nix will have similar success against the BYU safeties who have been targeted through two games.

Both of these defenses combine for 17 opponent red zone trips, allowing 13 of them to end in a touchdown.

Our projections dictate Oregon should be favored by 2.5 — just below the current market (see real-time college football odds here). Considering these defenses have consistent issues tackling and allowing offenses to steam roll the end zone, the over is the play.

Pick: Over 57.5 or Better

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