LSU vs. Auburn Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Bayou Bengals
Photo by John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaray Jenkins (LSU)
LSU vs. Auburn Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -320 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +255 |
Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama is the site of this matchup between two SEC teams with very different outlooks for the rest of their seasons.
Recently in this matchup, the home team is 18-4 SU with a 14-7-1 ATS record. 12 of the last 18 games have been decided by seven points or less.
LSU looks to keep its positive 3-1 record against the spread alive on the road, while Auburn looks for its first cover of the season.
LSU Tigers
First-year head coach Brian Kelly is a blocked extra point away from being undefeated in his LSU tenure.
Since its loss to Florida State, LSU has rattled off three consecutive wins, including a 3-0 record ATS.
LSU has looked impressive so far this year, ranking 15th in Offensive Success Rate and 21st in Defensive Success Rate.
On the offensive side of the ball, much of LSU’s success can be attributed to the play of quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Daniels leads LSU in both rushing and receiving so far in 2022. He has thrown for 835 yards through the air with a completion percentage of 73%. Daniels has achieved these numbers without throwing an interception.
Where Daniels is really threatening to opposing offenses is on the ground. Daniels is averaging six yards per rush attempt to lead the team with 262 total rushing yards.
Jayden Daniels scrambles free for a huge gain for the Tigers 😤 pic.twitter.com/S455p4aymy
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 4, 2022
Daniels' potent ground attack is catalyzed by a talent running back room. LSU’s duo of Armoni Goodwin and Noah Cain have contributed heavily to LSU averaging 3.8 Line Yards per rush.
This balanced offensive attack has resulted in an overall Success Rate of 52%, which climbs to 59% on Standard Downs.
LSU’s ability to keep teams guessing has resulted in an average of 39.3 points per game and a 1.31 Explosiveness ranking.
Defensively, LSU has been just as impressive, allowing teams just 14.25 points per contest.
This defensive success can be attributed to the talent LSU has in its front seven. So far this year, LSU’s front has produced a 14% Havoc ranking and a 0.93 Explosiveness ranking against the rush.
The success the front seven has had so far this year has forced teams into many third- and fourth-down situations. LSU also excels in that area, as the Tigers rank 33rd nationally in third- and fourth-down Success Rate at 35.56%.
Auburn Tigers
Although the Tigers have a 3-1 record, their 0-4 record against the spread and advanced metrics tell the true story surrounding this program.
Much of Auburn’s struggles can be tied to its quarterback play. Through the first four weeks of the season, sophomore T.J Finley was less than impressive, throwing for a single touchdown while accounting for four interceptions.
Finley missed last week’s matchup vs. Missouri after suffering a Grade 2 AC sprain in his right shoulder.
His replacement, redshirt freshman Robby Ashford, was just as unsuccessful, completing just 12 passes for 127 yards and no touchdowns.
At the time of writing, it appears that Finley will miss his second straight game, making way for Ashford to start against LSU.
So far this season, it appears that neither quarterback has had any substantial success.
This abysmal quarterback play has forced Auburn to resort to a heavy rushing attack behind star running back Tank Bigsby. Unfortunately for Auburn, this rushing attack has seen a similar level of ineffectiveness.
Defensively, Auburn has yet to be tested outside of its 41-12 defeat to Penn State at home in Week 3.
When facing competent offenses who produce scoring opportunities for their team, Auburn is giving up 4.5 points per opportunity.
In addition, Auburn is allowing an Explosiveness of 1.48 against the pass, which matches up poorly against an explosive LSU passing attack.
LSU vs. Auburn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Auburn match up statistically:
LSU Offense vs. Auburn Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 86 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 38 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 107 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Auburn Offense vs. LSU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 84 | 17 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 79 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 21 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 60 | 34 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 29 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 125 | 25 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.3 (61) | 26.7 (70) |
| Rush Rate | 50.0% (88) | 60.8% (25) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
LSU vs. Auburn Betting Pick
In conclusion, I do not expect Auburn’s struggling offense to be able to keep up with the potent attack that LSU has produced so far this season.
Daniels will be able to have a level of success — both on the ground and through the air — that Auburn's offense, particularly Ashford, will not be able to keep up with.
Look for LSU to do enough in the trenches to allow its offense to run away with this one against an Auburn team that may be looking for a new head coach come Monday.
Pick: LSU -7.5 (Play to -9.5)
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