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Oregon vs Washington State Odds & Picks: The Bet to Make on Saturday’s Total

Oregon vs Washington State Odds & Picks: The Bet to Make on Saturday’s Total article feature image

Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: Bo Nix (Oregon)

Oregon vs Washington State Odds

Saturday, Sept 24
4 p.m. ET
Oregon Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-114o / -106u
Washington State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-114o / -106u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Bo Nix experience is one of the crazier rides in college football. His game logs over three-and-a-half seasons have been a roller coaster, with a lot of highs, lows and virtually no in-between.

And through three games with his new team, the Oregon Ducks are the perfect embodiment of the Nix experience.

One week they look like the most overrated team in college football, and another they’re beating a top-15 team by three touchdowns.

So which Ducks team is the real version in 2022?

Saturday’s matchup with a 3-0 Washington State team will go a long way in revealing which form of Oregon is closer to the real thing. The Cougars have one of the better defenses in the nation and will likely be a trendy upset pick to drop the Ducks to 2-2.

Should we believe that Nix and Oregon are now rolling on all cylinders, or can Washington State play spoiler and show it’s a Pac-12 North contender?

Oregon Ducks

The Ducks and Nix looked like the fringe College Football Playoff team that some anticipated in their 41-20 dominating victory over BYU in Eugene.

After being held to only three points in Week 1 against Georgia, the Ducks’ first-team offense scored a touchdown on 13 straight possessions against Eastern Washington and BYU.

Nix, who threw a pair of interceptions against the Bulldogs, has not turned it over since Week 1 and has accounted for 10 touchdowns in the last two weeks, while completing over 80% of his passes.

That’s the type of performance he’ll need in Pullman, something that’s proven difficult over the course of his career due to drastic home/road splits.

At home, Nix hits 65% of his passes and has a 30:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On the road, he only completes 55% of his passes with a 12:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Washington State does well creating Havoc and producing pressure, so Nix will need to prove he can eliminate the turnovers that cost the Ducks in Week 1.

Defense has surprisingly been an issue in Year 1 under Dan Lanning. Oregon ranks 114th in passing defense — allowing 277.0 yards per game — and finds itself 121st and 127th in Pass Success and Pass Blocking, respectively, on defense.

Washington State Cougars

The Cougars already bagged a win over a top-25 team in Week 2 with their 17-14 win over Wisconsin. Their new coach, new quarterback and a strong defense has Washington State knocking on the door of the top 25 itself.

After a slow start to the season, Incarnate Word transfer Cameron Ward provided the spark on offense last week against Colorado State, completing 26-of-36 passes for 292 yards and four touchdowns.

It was his first performance worthy of the hype that surrounded his transfer as one of the FCS’s most dynamic playmakers.

The Cougars’ offense has yet to look like the ones Mike Leach and Nick Rolovich continually rolled out, but that was to be expected with defensive-minded Jake Dickert taking over.

Washington State has shined brightest on defense, having yet to surrender a rushing touchdown, and ranking 28th with 90.7 rushing yards allowed per game.

The Cougars have only given up four passing touchdowns and rank fourth in Pass Success on defense. They’ve created some of the most Havoc at the line of scrimmage and have the second-most sacks in the country with 14.

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Oregon vs. Washington State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Washington State match up statistically:

Oregon Offense vs. Washington State Defense
Rush Success 9 6
Line Yards 31 16
Pass Success 55 4
Pass Blocking** 1 64
Havoc 40 8
Finishing Drives 14 5
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Washington State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Rush Success 75 30
Line Yards 8 78
Pass Success 91 121
Pass Blocking** 113 127
Havoc 97 115
Finishing Drives 50 123
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 89 33
PFF Coverage 100 6
SP+ Special Teams 59 69
Seconds per Play 27.3 (84) 24.4 (30)
Rush Rate 55.7% (57) 41.9% (120)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Oregon vs Washington State Pick

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

That seems to be where we are with Bo Nix on the road.

Nix will likely be under constant duress from the Washington State pass rush, and he has a tendency to get a little reckless when he has to leave the pocket. A tiger cannot change its stripes, and I don’t think on the road at the Palouse is where we see the former Tiger change his.

That said, this Washington State offense leaves a lot to be desired. It only scored 24 points against an FCS team, and the 38 points came against one of the worst FBS teams in Colorado State.

Ward hasn’t shown he can be a consistent playmaker yet at the FBS level.

This game will be close, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Washington State win this outright with a brilliant defensive performance, but the best play here is to expect both offenses to struggle and fail to score more than 57.5 points.

Pick: Under 57.5 (Play to 56.5)

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