Texas A&M vs. Auburn Odds & Picks: Bet the Aggies to Cover the Spread as Road Favorites
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas A&M standouts Isaiah Spiller and Kellen Mond.
- Texas A&M hopes to add to its College Football Playoff resume with a win on the road against Auburn.
- Kellen Mond and Isaiah Spiller lead the favored Aggies against a Tigers team that could be without two starting offensive linemen.
- Reed Wallach explains why he’s backing A&M to win big on the road.
Texas A&M vs. Auburn Odds
|Texas A&M Odds||-5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Auburn Odds||+5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-215 / +175 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||48.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 12 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today.|
Texas A&M has kept pace with the pack in the College Football Playoff. The Aggies sit in the No. 5 spot for the second consecutive week, though their path is a bit murky with Alabama standing in the way for a berth in the SEC Championship Game.
A road win over Auburn might not have an immediate impact, but racking up some style points against a conference foe could help down the road.
Texas A&M travels to Auburn as a 7-point favorite, with the expectation being the Aggies hand Bo Nix and his teammates another loss in what has been a frustrating 5-3 campaign for the Tigers.
Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies do not make it pretty, but have put together a successful season behind a top-of-the-line defense. The unit ranks 13th in havoc generated this season and really thrives at stopping the run. Jimbo Fisher’s defense has 46 tackles for loss this season, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. The Aggies have just allowed one team to rack up more than 110 yards on the ground.
The secondary has done its part, too. Texas A&M ranks inside the top 30 in passes defended and interceptions. Nix has been plagued by turnovers in his career, so there should be ample chances to add to those tallies.
The question is: Will Aggies quarterback Kellen Mond be able to take advantage of these opportunities?
The senior has not taken the leap many expected of him to heading into his final season, but it hasn’t been all that bad. Mond has only thrown two picks through seven games, as the Aggies have taken a more run-heavy approach.
Overall, this is not an explosive offense, but an efficient one. Texas A&M moves at a prodding pace, averaging 30 seconds per play, but it works for the team. The Aggies have converted 53% of their third downs, putting them inside the top 5 nationally.
While Mond has grown into more of a pocket passer, the team has leaned on sophomore running back Isaiah Spiller, who is averaging six yards per carry, to put games away.
This has been a troubling year for the Tigers. Injuries have plagued much of the roster and Nix’s regression after an encouraging freshman campaign has limited their ceiling.
For starters, Auburn is down starting left tackle Alec Jackson with a hand injury and possibly will be without another starter on the line in Brodarious Hamm. That won’t help Nix, who has already thrown more interceptions in 2020 than he did in 2019.
On top of that, the team’s most promising young offensive player — freshman running back Tank Bigsby — is clearly hobbled with a hip injury. This Texas A&M front seven is likely going to continue its dominance against that patchwork offensive line.
Auburn’s defense should be able to keep Spiller in front of it, but only for so long. Auburn is one of the best teams in the country at defending the explosive rush, but the defense has allowed five different rushers to break the 80-yard mark this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Auburn is a team on “quit watch” in my opinion.
Even though head coach Gus Malzahn has thrived as a home underdog, going 9-3 Against the Spread according to Bet Labs, the injuries across his roster might be too much to overcome against physically imposing Texas A&M.
Texas A&M’s low-scoring win over LSU last weekend could be keeping this price down, but there was some poor weather in that game. If not for a last-minute touchdown by Tigers, the Aggies would have pitched a shutout in its first game back after two cancellations due to COVID-19 restrictions.
In what should be a clear, late fall day, Texas A&M should be able to establish the run and get this out over two possessions.
I grabbed Texas A&M at minus-6.5 when it opened, but have the Aggies favored by at least nine in this spot. Lay the points with the road favorite to make a deliver result ahead of the third edition of the CFP Rankings.
Pick: Texas A&M -6.5 (play to -7.5).