College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Texas Tech vs. Baylor: Bears Looking to Keep Big 12 Title Hopes Alive
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Smith.
- In order to reach the Big 12 title game, Baylor needs to beat Texas Tech and hope for Oklahoma State to defeat Oklahoma.
- The Bears would then reach the conference's championship game for the second time in three seasons.
- Keg has this matchup covered beyond just the winner, as he provides his best bet.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -115 | 52 +100o / -120u | +435 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -105 | 52 +100o / -120u | -600 |
The Baylor Bears, who are a perfect 6-0 at home, will welcome the Texas Tech Red Raiders to Waco on Saturday.
The home team has won the last two meetings in this series since this game moved back to a home-and-home. Tech is 11-17 in Waco but leads the all-time series, 38-36-1.
After Tech's loss to Kansas State, Texas Tech fired head coach Matt Wells. Oddly enough, Joey McGuire, an assistant at Baylor and a Texas high school football coaching legend with amazing recruiting experience, was hired.
McGuire left Baylor upon his hire and won't coach Texas Tech until next year, but he is part of the program while working on the first recruiting class. We don't know if Tech will benefit from any information he brings from Baylor, but the possibility can't be ignored.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Two weeks ago against Iowa State, quarterback Donovan Smith turned heads as he completed 25-of-32 passes for 322 yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception. He also tacked on 50 rushing yards as the Red Raiders upset the Cyclones, 41-38.
However, in his first career start this past Saturday, Smith looked like an inexperienced freshman against Oklahoma State's elite defense as the Cowboys shut out the Red Raiders, 23-0. Texas Tech managed just 83 yards passing and 25 yards rushing while surrendering 427 yards in the loss.
Smith completed just nine of his 29 attempts and rushed for -15 yards, as he was sacked five times.
He may have had a challenging game against the Cowboys but still gives Texas Tech its best chance against Baylor. In the win over Iowa State, he found nine different receivers and efficiently worked through progressions.
Texas Tech's rushing defense has also made giant leaps from earlier in the season. Last week, the Red Raiders held Oklahoma State to just 3.9 yards per carry after holding the Cyclones to just 3.6 yards a tote before that.
Baylor Bears
Baylor moved to 9-2 on the season after beating Kansas State, 20-10, last Saturday. If the Bears beat the Red Raiders, they will need an Oklahoma State win over Oklahoma to reach the Big 12 Championship.
Quarterback Gerry Bohanon threw for just 76 yards and a touchdown before he went down with a leg injury against Kansas State. Even with a backup during the second half, the Bears looked great in the win in the Little Apple.
Blake Shapen stepped up for the Bears, completing 16-of-21 passes for 137 yards and no interceptions while adding 44 yards on the ground.
If Bohanon can play, I expect him to get back on the field with a Big 12 Championship berth on the line, but it's still unclear if he'll be available. Shapen played well against Kansas State, but things will be more difficult against Tech now that they've seen him play.
However, an inexperienced quarterback's best friend is an efficient running game. Whether Bohanon is back or Shapen gets the start, Baylor's running game needs to work better than it did against K-State, when it was limited to 174 rushing yards.
Baylor's defense is arguably the second-best in the league and coming off two of its best performances of the season in wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State. The Bears allowed an average of 12 points and 261.5 yards of total offense per game in that span.
The Baylor rush defense is ranked 20th in the country, limiting opponents to just 119 yards per game on average and ranks 17th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Baylor match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 50 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 119 | 67 | |
| Big Play | 72 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 32 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Baylor Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 65 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 111 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 3 | 94 | |
| Big Play | 39 | 84 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 81 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 128 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 112 | 79 |
| Coverage | 103 | 55 |
| Middle 8 | 83 | 62 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 4 | 37 |
| Plays per Minute | 73 | 104 |
| Rush Rate | 52.% (87) | 61.% (21) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor Betting Pick
I don't think anyone can stop Baylor right now, and it will be a shame if it doesn't play in the Big 12 Championship game. However, I'm not a fan of this spread sliding above two scores.
And because of that, I'll take the Red Raiders at anything above 14 here. I will also be looking to lay an additional unit if Bohanan doesn't start.
Pick: Texas Tech +14.5 or better
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