Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Picks, Prediction: The Big 12 Bet to Make
Christopher Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: West Virginia’s Garrett Greene.
Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
The Oklahoma State Cowboys and West Virginia Mountaineers meet in a Big 12 battle Saturday afternoon.
If they offered betting odds on the first coach to be fired entering the season, West Virginia’s Neal Brown surely would have been an overwhelming favorite. Instead, he quickly cooled his seat and has the Mountaineers off to a 4-2 start.
A win on Saturday will cash the West Virginia season win total over a week before Halloween.
Oklahoma State enters this game at 4-2 this season off of back-to-back victories over Kansas State and Kansas. Everybody expects Texas and Oklahoma to meet again in the Big 12 title game, but both of these teams have just one conference loss and are right in the race to play in the championship game.
This game likely won’t garner many headlines, but it's a sneaky good game in the Big 12.
After playing music chairs at quarterback for the first three weeks, it seems the Cowboys have finally settled on veteran Alan Bowman. They rotated quarterbacks early in the season, but Bowman has taken all the snaps over the last three weeks.
Bowman is in his sixth season in college football after three years at Texas Tech, two years at Michigan and 32 games under his belt.
Experience might be his best asset, though. Bowman is completing just 56.8% of his passes this year with four touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Cowboys rank 93rd in the country in Passing Success Rate, but they do rank 45th in Rushing Success.
Last year’s backup, Ollie Gordon II, has stepped up as the lead back and is averaging more than six yards per carry. Oklahoma State has really made him the focal point of the offense, as he has rushed for over 120 yards in each of the last three games. He's the key for this unit.
And stopping the run will be the key for defense. That has been a strength for this team from a Success Rate standpoint, as it ranks 35th nationally against the run. The only problem is it ranks 127th at defending explosiveness.
Oklahoma State has been burned by a ton of big plays both on the ground and through the air. We saw Kansas State and Kansas each post seven explosive plays against the Pokes over the last two weeks.
Turnovers really saved the Cowboys, as they forced five interceptions in the last two weeks. That's helped them overcome allowing 5.2 yards per play to Kansas State and 7.9 yards per play to Kansas without its starting quarterback.
Similar to Oklahoma State, the Mountaineers' strength has been running the ball. West Virginia ranks fifth in the country in rushing rate, leaning on a strong ground game. CJ Donaldson has been the lead back, averaging 69 yards per game with five scores.
He's joined in the backfield by true freshman Jahiem White and sophomore Jaylen Anderson. White has provided the explosive spark this offense needs, averaging 7.4 yards per carry with six runs of at least 10 yards on just 25 carries.
Quarterback Garrett Greene is also dangerous with his legs, adding 46.2 yards per game on the ground with five rushing scores. He's coming off his best game of the season in that heartbreaking loss to Houston, throwing for 391 yards and two touchdowns while adding two rushing scores as well.
The biggest surprise is how good this West Virginia defense has been. This unit ranks 23rd in the country in Success Rate. The Mountaineers have been solid in both areas but are especially dominant against the pass, ranking fourth in the nation.
Cornerback Beanie Bishop has been their best defender this year, ranking second on the team in tackles while serving as a lockdown cornerback. He has two interceptions and leads the Big 12 with nine passes defended.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and West Virginia match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 54 | |
| Pass Success | 94 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 75 | |
| Quality Drives | 57 | 51 |
West Virginia Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 66 | 114 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 115 | |
| Quality Drives | 74 | 55 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 77 | 72 |
| PFF Coverage | 92 | 118 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 36 | 39 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 37 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.6 (23) | 28.7 (99) |
| Rush Rate | 44.6% (117) | 64.1% (5) |
Oklahoma State vs West Virginia
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game is between two similar teams that run the ball well and play strong defense. West Virginia just does both of them better than Oklahoma State does.
Greene and Donaldson have been terrific running the RPO this season, and this backfield should be able to break off chunk plays against an Oklahoma State defense that ranks 92nd in the country in tackling and gives up a ton of big plays.
6️⃣💨 pic.twitter.com/Q3gEGTwVXV
— West Virginia Football (@WVUfootball) October 1, 2023
The one area West Virginia has struggled in is preventing explosiveness through the air, but that's not an area Oklahoma State can attack. The Pokes rank 109th nationally in passing explosiveness and lack weapons on the outside.
Plus, Bowman has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws this season and has really struggled.
West Virginia is sixth in the country in creating Havoc and should put pressure on Bowman and slow down the Cowboys' rushing attack.
Oklahoma State struggles to prevent Finishing Drives as well, and I expect the Mountaineers to bounce back from that tough loss and pull away from the Pokes here.
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