Power Ratings vs. Spreads: Biggest Betting Values for College Football Week 10

Power Ratings vs. Spreads: Biggest Betting Values for College Football Week 10 article feature image

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ian Book

  • We're comparing our college football power ratings to Week 10 point spreads posted by oddsmakers to find betting value.
  • Georgia and Notre Dame are among the teams the market might be underpricing this week.

Now that the opening lines for college football’s Week 10 are out, let’s take a look at some of the biggest differences between my projected point spreads and what the books actually posted.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts for all my plays as the college football market continually moves.

Week 10 College Football Point Spread Projections

The Action Network spread reflects our numbers from Sunday morning, before the books posted their lines.

Ball State at Toledo

  • Action Network spread: Toledo -10
  • Posted spread: Toledo -14

Quarterback Riley Neal left Ball State’s game against Ohio in the second quarter with a knee injury, and Toledo has health issues of its own at the quarterback spot. Rockets quarterback Mitchell Guadagni left the game against Western Michigan with a throwing shoulder injury.

Toledo backup quarterback Eli Peters had his best effort of the year in relief, but no word on the Rockets’ health for this game has been released.

Michigan State at Maryland

  • Action Network spread: Maryland +5
  • Posted spread: Maryland +3

This is a lookahead spot for Michigan State, as it hosts Ohio State in Week 11. The Spartans have serious injury concerns on the offensive line after playing Week 9 without their starting center, left guard and right guard last week. Right tackle Jordan Reid left the Purdue game with a right leg injury.

Maryland also has an extreme advantage with its rush explosiveness, which ranks top 10. Michigan State is just inside the top 100 in the same category defensively.

Georgia at Kentucky

  • Action Network spread: Kentucky +16
  • Posted spread: Kentucky +10

This point spread for Kentucky is a curious one. The Wildcats did nothing to improve their power rating after going 60 minutes without an offensive touchdown against Missouri.

The Wildcats did steal the game from Missouri with a punt return touchdown and an untimed play in the end zone.

Notre Dame at Northwestern

  • Action Network spread: Northwestern +14
  • Posted spread: Northwestern +8

The first offshore opening number for this game was 10.5 before plenty of money came in to knock this number as far as Northwestern +7 at some shops.

The Wildcats have an excellent defense on passing downs, which should help against the Irish aerial attack. Notre Dame does have the ability to play to down to its competition, getting wins by eight points or fewer against Ball State, Vanderbilt and Pitt.

South Alabama at Arkansas State

  • Action Network spread: Arkansas State -13
  • Posted spread: Arkansas State -17

This spread opened at -14 before Arkansas State took most of the bets to move it to -17.

South Alabama had a standalone game in Tuesday’s loss to Troy. We saw the Jaguars do everything they could to lose that game.

Arkansas State hasn’t been the Sun Belt powerhouse it’s been in recent years. The Red Wolves quietly lost their third conference game of the season to Louisiana Lafayette. Arkansas State ranks in the bottom 10 against rush and pass explosiveness.