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Buffalo vs. Bowling Green Odds & Weather Report: Cold, Windy Forecast Provides Betting Edge (Tuesday, Nov. 17)


Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Bowling Green Falcons standout Chris Oliver.

  • Less than 35-degree temps + double-digit wind speeds have delivered a solid 63% hit rate on the under since 2005.
  • Danny Donahue recommends you check the forecast before playing Tuesday's game between Buffalo and Bowling Green in MAC football action.

College Football Odds: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green

Buffalo Odds -31
Bowling Green Odds +31
Over/Under 58
Time 7 p.m. ET
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A pair of mid-November MAC matchups provides a solid chance of weather making at least a slight impact on scoring tonight.

And while neither Akron vs. Kent State nor Buffalo vs. Bowling Green is forecasting conditions necessary to fit one of our PRO betting systems, the latter is taking a more indirect route to weather-based profits — at least historically speaking.

Note: Odds, forecast as of 10 a.m. ET.

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College Football Weather: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green

A 10-12 mph wind is expected throughout tonight’s game in Bowling Green, making the low-30s temperature all the more unpleasant.

And while, as mentioned, that wind speed isn’t quite enough for our Windy Unders PRO System on its own, the cold-wind combo has also been one that’s slowed down offenses in the past.

Here’s how unders have fared in games since 2005 with double-digit wind speeds at various temperatures:

  • 50 degrees or more: 932-826-23 (53.0%)
  • Less than 50: 296-227-10 (56.6%)
  • Less than 40: 101-75-4 (57.4%)
  • Less than 35: 59-34-4 (63.4%)

The theory makes sense, too. As these games tend to increase passing difficulty, big plays become less common. And with the ball remaining on the ground more often as a result, the clock runs more continuously, reducing the overall number of drives, and therefore, scores.

The weather’s impact isn’t lost on oddsmakers, either. Over the past couple days, this total has fallen from 61 to 58.

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