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The Oregon Ducks take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, Illinois, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
Oregon is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -385. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Illinois prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
Oregon vs Illinois Prediction
- Oregon vs. Illinois Pick: Oregon Team Total Under 30.5 Points (-113)
My Illinois vs. Oregon best bet is on the Ducks to score under 30.5 points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Oregon vs Illinois Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -385 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
- Oregon vs Illinois point spread: Oregon -9.5 (-110), Illinois +9.5 (-110)
- Oregon vs Illinois over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Oregon vs Illinois moneyline: Oregon -385, Illinois +300
Oregon vs Illinois College Football Preview
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Lost Spark
Oregon comes in as a mess right now offensively, and the Ducks aren't fully equipped with the full complement of starters expected to lead this group back to the CFP.
Quarterback Dante Moore, who entered this season as a Heisman Trophy front-runner, is out with an injury, and the offense has sputtered under the command of both Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas.
Scoring 15 points in a home loss to UCLA was bad enough, but following that up with the performance we saw last week against Nebraska gives major reason for concern.
The offense is just not the same without Moore and wide receiver Evan Stewart in the fold. Oregon was shut out in the first half and managed just three field goals in the first 59 minutes of the game, quite literally needing a last-second touchdown to save its season while squeaking by the feisty Huskers.
The passing game was putrid, as Oregon threw for just 113 yards and averaged three yards per passing attempt. The Ducks ran 58 offensive plays, and just one was registered as an explosive.
This performance followed up the UCLA loss, where only three of Oregon’s 62 offensive plays were deemed explosive.
The punch of this offense is gone, and there is little reason to believe we see the firepower we've seen from the Ducks historically.
Frankly, this is an average Big Ten offense right now, and until the key contributors get healthy, it'll remain as such.
The Ducks' defense has been good, not great, and has kept Oregon in games when the offense has sputtered. Early down success has been crucial, and Oregon has forced opponents off the field on third down at an alarmingly high rate.
The opposition has not been able to regularly move the ball on this defense on the ground, as Oregon is giving up just 111 rushing yards per game.
Oregon is in unfamiliar territory of having to lean on this defense to get the job done, and I would figure that to be the case on the road in this one.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Fresh Start
Illinois comes into this one at 3-3 after surviving a near disaster a couple of weeks ago on the road at Michigan State.
The Fighting Illini lost quarterback Katin Houser to a broken hand, which will sideline him for 4-6 weeks, and now they'll turn to true freshman quarterback Michael Clayton II against Oregon.
The game plan certainly figures to change without Houser behind center, although Clayton threw the ball well in relief of Houser last week.
Clayton completed six of eight passes for 88 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and now, having two weeks to prepare off the bye week, Illinois should throw its best stuff at Oregon in this matchup.
We should see a heavy dose of Aidan Laughery and Ca’Lil Valentine in this matchup, as Illinois is going to have to win the war on early downs. The ground attack has found moderate success this season, as Illinois is running for 150 yards per game and ranks 35th nationally in rush play success rate.
The Illini want to throw the ball, but I would expect heavier run splits this week in an effort to truncate this game down and keep Oregon’s offense off the field.
The Illinois defense isn't a strong unit, and it's been one that struggles to create drive-stopping havoc and hold up in pass coverage. Illinois has been torched this year while giving up 67% pass completions and allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt.
The front has just five sacks registered, and the defense doesn't do well on third down in getting its opponents off the field.
Illinois is fortunate to be facing Oregon in its current state of affairs because a fully equipped Ducks offense would roast this defense badly.
This is a tough task this week for Illinois, but the unit is fresh off a bye with two weeks to scheme it up.
Oregon vs Illinois Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Oregon listed as a 12.5-point favorite with a total set at 51.5. Illinois has taken money this week and is now catching just 9.5 points, and the total is down to 50.5.
I like for Oregon to stay under its posted team total, which is 30.5.
This Oregon offense isn't efficient without its star quarterback, and the team has racked up just 514 yards combined over its last two games against UCLA and Nebraska, both played at home.
Oregon has averaged just 3.7 yards per play during that stretch, and the first-half performances have been concerning. Oregon has started slowly each of the last two weeks, with 12 of its 16 first-half possessions ending with punts, three resulting in turnovers and one being a scoring drive.
Looking at Oregon’s drive chart over the last two weeks, through three quarters, the team had the ball 22 times. One of those drives was executed with Oregon running more than five plays. One!
The Ducks have not been able to put successful plays together, and success on early downs has been non-existent. The tempo has been slow and the play calling is conservative.
We should see that here, as Oregon will try to establish the ground attack and the Ducks could have moderate success, but Illinois hasn't played too badly against the run this season.
The Illinois defensive weakness is in its secondary, and I'm not sure Oregon is going to be able to exploit that. The passing offense has been inefficient and non-explosive.
Illinois is likely to grind this game to a snail's pace as well, as it's breaking in a true freshman quarterback to line up against a strong Oregon defense. This will be a tough assignment.
Expect Illinois to run the ball significantly more than we're used to seeing in an effort to out-possess Oregon in this game. Both coaches should be comfortable with a slow-burning grind and a game that ends up being a field position battle.
The Ducks will grind this game out and win, but exceeding 30 points isn't a likely event to occur.
Pick: Oregon Team Total Under 30.5 Points
Oregon vs Illinois Betting Trends
