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The Oklahoma Sooners take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, Mississippi, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Oklahoma is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -235. Mississippi State, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +190 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here’s my Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Prediction
- Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Pick: Mississippi State +5.5 (-105)
My Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -235 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
- Oklahoma vs Mississippi State point spread: Oklahoma -5.5 (-115), Mississippi State +5.5 (-105)
- Oklahoma vs Mississippi State over/under: 44.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Oklahoma vs Mississippi State moneyline: Oklahoma -235, Mississippi State +190
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State College Football Preview
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview: Missing Half
Oklahoma enters this game in Starkville at 3-3 following another frustrating offensive performance in a 21-13 home loss to Kentucky.
While head coach Brent Venables has built one of the better defenses in the SEC, I'm having a difficult time laying more than a field goal with a team that has struggled to move the football this badly.
Quarterback John Mateer threw three interceptions against the Wildcats, bringing his season total to seven, while the Sooners have fallen to -8 in turnover differential, ranking 134th nationally.
That's not exactly the offensive profile I'm interested in backing as a road favorite, especially given the current state of this offense. Oklahoma is averaging just 311.5 yards per game, ranking 126th nationally, including 92.5 rushing YPG, which ranks 136th.
The Sooners are also generating only 21.3 points per game despite having one of the nation's most productive defensive units. If the offense was just a tad better, the Sooners could be looking at a 5-1 record right now.
Running back Lloyd Avant has rushed for 267 yards on 60 carries, averaging 4.5 YPC, while wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III leads the receiving corps with 33 receptions for 414 yards.
Neither number is particularly encouraging when you're asking an offense to win comfortably on the road. The defensive numbers are considerably more impressive.
Oklahoma ranks fifth nationally in total defense, allowing 260.7 YPG, while opponents are converting just 25.6% of their third-down opportunities, the second-best mark in the FBS.
That defensive efficiency creates a legitimate challenge for Mississippi State, particularly if the Bulldogs are forced to operate without star starting quarterback Kamario Taylor.
However, Oklahoma's inability to consistently finish possessions has prevented the Sooners from taking advantage of favorable field position, and that becomes a major concern when laying 4.5 points.
No way on God’s Green Earth should the Sooners be laying 4.5 points on the road.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Deserving Another Look
Mississippi State is coming off an embarrassing 31-0 loss to LSU, but I'm not particularly interested in treating that performance as an accurate representation of Jeff Lebby's offense.
The Bulldogs were without Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell, arguably their two most important offensive players.
Taylor has been dealing with a foot injury and remains day-to-day, making his availability the single most important development surrounding this matchup.
Before suffering the injury, Taylor completed 66.2% of his passes for 1,450 yards, 17 touchdowns and four picks while adding another 159 rushing yards. Those numbers are considerably more impressive than anything Oklahoma has generated offensively.
Without Taylor, Mississippi State turned to QB Parker Puckett, who completed 16-of-26 passes for 121 yards and an interception against LSU.
That's a substantial downgrade in explosiveness, but even as someone who laid the points with the Tigers last weekend, the Bulldogs were consistently driving into opponent territory.
Bothwell's status is equally important after he missed last week's contest with an ankle injury.
He has rushed for 403 yards on 74 attempts, averaging 5.4 YPC. He gives Mississippi State the balance necessary to prevent Oklahoma from consistently attacking obvious passing situations.
Wide receiver Anthony Evans III has also been outstanding, recording 47 receptions for 614 yards and five touchdowns. If Taylor returns, Evans becomes a particularly important matchup against an Oklahoma secondary allowing just 151.3 passing YPG.
The Bulldogs have been far more productive offensively than the Sooners throughout the season, averaging 454.3 YPG and 32.5 PPG. However, Taylor's availability is absolutely critical to whether or not those season-long numbers accurately reflect Saturday's offensive ceiling.
I'm going to assume we get either Bothwell or Taylor back, but regardless, I think this number is outrageous given how bad the Oklahoma offense has been. Give me the Bulldogs at home to cover the spread.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Pick, Betting Analysis
This number opened around Oklahoma -2.5 before moving toward -4.5, and I'm willing to take the points with Mississippi State rather than lay more than a field goal with an Oklahoma offense that has been this inconsistent.
The Sooners rank 126th in total offense, 136th in rushing offense and 134th in turnover differential.
That's a pretty ugly combination for a road favorite.
Mississippi State's defense has struggled against the pass, allowing 264.8 YPG, but Oklahoma hasn't demonstrated the offensive consistency necessary to fully exploit that weakness.
The Bulldogs are also allowing only 114.7 rushing YPG, ranking 36th nationally, which could force Mateer into another pass-heavy game.
That's exactly where his turnover issues become problematic. Oklahoma's Defensive Havoc and third-down efficiency are legitimate concerns for Miss State, but its offensive limitations leave very little margin for error.
If Taylor and Bothwell return reasonably healthy, Mississippi State has enough offensive firepower to win outright.
Even if the Bulldogs struggle to sustain drives, I'm not convinced Oklahoma has the offense to consistently create a two-score margin.
I'll grab the points in Starkville, although Taylor's status needs to be monitored closely before kickoff.
Pick: Mississippi State +5.5 (-105)
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Betting Trends
