Week 2 College Football Player Props, Including Best Bets On Brock Purdy And Josh Downs
John E. Moore III / Getty Images. Pictured: Brock Purdy
Let’s get more specific and dial into player props.
I will not accept a single loss this Saturday. These are the best plays on the board, courtesy of Prize Picks.
Iowa State QB Brock Purdy Over/Under 1.5 TD Passes
Purdy’s a trendy Heisman pick, playing on a legitimate threat in the second tier of contenders. But don’t overthink this pick against a stingy Iowa secondary.
It was only one game, but the Hawkeyes’ defense picked up right where it left off in Week 1 against Indiana, intercepting three passes and finishing 10th in the country in EPA/pass allowed.
Over the last seven games dating back to last season, Iowa’s given up just five total touchdown passes; not a single quarterback has thrown for more than two across that span.
Enter Purdy, who’s logged one or zero TD passes in four of his last five despite playing a trio of Big 12 defenses and Northern Iowa.
The market’s only expecting roughly three touchdowns from Iowa State. Expecting Purdy to account for two of those through the air is asking too much.
Pick: Under 1.5
UNC WR Josh Downs Over/Under 5.5 Receptions
If you were wondering who’d pick up the slack in the Tar Heels’ offense with Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome onto the pros, you got your answer Friday against Virginia Tech.
Wide receiver Josh Downs accounted for more than half (9) of quarterback Sam Howell’s completions (17) against the Hokies, including a 37-yard tunnel screen he took to the crib.
— Greg Brandt (@devywarehouse) September 4, 2021
Downs posted the best Weighted Dominator Rating of any receiver in the opener (39.27) and a 1.60 RYPTAOE (Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt Over Expectation), tops of any receiver out of the 2023 class.
Howell’s bound to complete a bunch more passes this week against a Sun Belt defense. Georgia State’s offense, meanwhile, prefers to play a track meet, especially after drawing Army last week. This is the perfect game script for passing volume.
Downs might have six snags — by half.
Pick: Over 5.5
Washington TE Cade Otton Over/Under 67.5 Receiving Yards
We’re getting an extremely soft number on a tight end who will see a ton of volume in the passing attack versus Michigan.
Otton’s usage rate was through the roof in the opener against Montana. He brought down eight passes for 82 yards, eating up 36.3% of Washington’s passing yards share.
The 6-5 senior has racked up an average of 6.3 catches and 84 yards per game over his last four dating back to 2020. He’ll be a matchup nightmare against a Wolverines defense that was hardly tested versus Western Michigan last Saturday.
Pick: Over 67.5