NCAAF Odds & Picks for Colorado State vs Middle Tennessee: Bet the Blue Raiders

After a double-overtime thriller last week, Colorado State plays Middle Tennessee on the road Saturday night as it looks for its first win.

The Rams took the Deion Sanders-led Colorado Buffaloes to the wire in Week 3. How quickly will they be able to respond to that dramatic loss in a big rivalry game?

Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders defeated Murray State after losses to a pair of SEC schools to open the campaign.

Sometimes, a situational spot is too much to overcome, and I believe everything favors the home team in this contest.

Colorado State took advantage of the early bye week by almost knocking off the nationally-ranked Buffaloes on the road.

One key to the strong performance was coach Jay Norvell’s decision to switch to Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at quarterback. In only his second career start, the redshirt freshman threw for over 350 yards and three touchdowns.

As a whole, the offense generated 499 yards in a spirited showing.

However, the game still shows up in the loss column, no matter how close it was.

It's hard to gauge how good this CSU team will be after games against Pac-12 opponents. Regardless, the previous loss does give the fanbase something to look forward to in year two under Norvell.

We can discuss the demanding non-conference schedule for the Rams, but MTSU hasn't had it easy either. The Blue Raiders opened at Alabama before facing a Missouri team that just knocked off a ranked Kansas State squad.

Like CSU, the Blue Raiders battled the Tigers until the final play, losing 23-19 in Week 2. It would've been a signature win for longtime head coach Rick Stockstill.

The veteran is the fourth longest-tenured head coach in the FBS, coaching in his 18th season in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. He's guided the program to 10 bowls and conference championships in both the Sun Belt Conference and Conference USA.

Stockstill will need his quarterback — Nicholas Vattiato — to continue to improve as a starter. He does lead C-USA in completion percentage (69.6), but the defense has carried the weight this year.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:

Colorado State Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	125	106
Line Yards	132	110
Pass Success	45	101
Havoc	93	96
Finishing Drives	122	130
Quality Drives	127	98

Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Colorado State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	121	97
Line Yards	116	32
Pass Success	86	100
Havoc	114	77
Finishing Drives	48	94
Quality Drives	121	119

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	84	78
PFF Coverage	122	127
Special Teams SP+	75	67
Middle 8	120	131
Seconds per Play	22.7 (9)	26.8 (68)
Rush Rate	39.1% (128)	43.6% (112)

You have to throw the numbers out when certain games come at an awful time for a team, which is how I feel about Colorado State in this one.

The Rams played their biggest game of the season in the Rocky Mountain Showdown at their rival's house last week. They even held an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter of that contest.

Norvell’s team let the lead slip away before eventually falling in double overtime. CSU now has to turn around this week and leave the state of Colorado for the first time to play Middle Tennessee.

I expect motivation and attention to drop after that thriller a week ago. So, my best bet is to take Middle Tennessee at -3.

There are two key areas where the Blue Raiders can exploit the Rams.

The first is in Finishing Drives, where CSU ranks in the bottom-10 among non-Power Five teams.

The Rams have also struggled to get any push up front offensively, with Marshall being the only squad in the country to be rated lower.

Meanwhile, MTSU has been very successful at scoring points when it reaches the opponent’s 40-yard-line, averaging 4.3 Points per Opportunity.

With Colorado State in a hangover spot and has struggling numbers on defense, I think the Blue Raiders are in a prime situation to pick up a solid victory and cover.