The East Tennessee State Buccaneers take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill on Saturday, Sept. 12. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
UNC is favored by -35.5 points on the spread. ETSU, meanwhile, enters as a +35.5 underdog and is +4000 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here’s my ETSU vs. UNC prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12.
ETSU vs UNC Prediction
- ETSU vs. UNC Pick: Over 54.5
My UNC vs. ETSU best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis.
ETSU vs UNC Odds
| East Tenn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+35.5 -118 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +4000 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-35.5 -104 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
- ETSU vs UNC point spread: UNC -35.5 (-104), ETSU +35.5 (-118)
- ETSU vs UNC over/under: 54.5
- ETSU vs UNC moneyline: ETSU +4000
ETSU vs UNC College Football Preview
East Tennessee State Buccaneers Betting Preview: Points Are Coming
East Tennessee State has been one of the more explosive FCS offenses through two weeks, averaging 42.5 points and 506 yards per game.
Freshman quarterback Mason Mims has been excellent, completing 74.2% of his passes for 615 yards, five touchdowns and one interception.
The Bucs are averaging 7.7 yards per play with a 50.4% Success Rate and 0.38 PPA per play. This offense has some dudes.
Running back TJ Peyton has rushed for 201 yards and three touchdowns on just 26 carries, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. Wide receiver Suderian Harrison has provided the explosive element through the air.
Obviously, North Carolina represents a massive jump in competition, but I'm not asking ETSU to score 30 points here.
The bigger concern is on the other side of the ball.
Campbell hung 49 points and 514 yards on ETSU in the opener, averaging 7.0 yards per play. The Camels threw for 343 yards and rushed for another 171.
ETSU also failed to record a sack and generated only one tackle for loss.
That sounds like a problem against North Carolina offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, especially with the extra time to prepare.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: Offensive Playmakers
North Carolina's 15-10 win over TCU in Dublin wasn't exactly an offensive masterpiece, but I wouldn't overreact to the final score.
Billy Edwards Jr. completed 16-of-28 passes for 232 yards and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt. Tight end Jelani Thurman caught four passes for 94 yards, while Jordan Shipp added 71 yards on five receptions.
The Heels moved the football but couldn't consistently finish drives.
This matchup should provide a much softer landing.
UNC also had an extra week to recover from the trip back from Ireland, giving Petrino two weeks to clean up the offense before facing an FCS defense that just surrendered 49 points to Campbell.
The matchup in the trenches sticks out.
If ETSU couldn't create pressure against Campbell, I'm not sure how it's going to consistently push Edwards off schedule. Give him a clean pocket, and there should be explosive plays available against this secondary.
UNC is averaging only 15 points per game, but that number comes from one game against TCU. This is a completely different defensive animal.
ETSU vs UNC Pick, Betting Analysis
This handicap starts with UNC's offense, but it doesn't end there.
The Tar Heels should have a massive advantage offensively, and Petrino has had two weeks to prepare for an ETSU defense that allowed seven yards per play against Campbell.
But I also don't hate what the Bucs bring to the table offensively.
Mims is completing over 74% of his passes, ETSU owns a 50.4% Success Rate, and the Bucs are converting 56.5% of their third downs.
Garbage time is our friend here.
UNC is favored by 34.5 points, so there's a strong possibility Mims spends most of the second half throwing against a defense protecting a massive lead.
The market has already reacted, with the total climbing from 51.5 to 54.5.
Normally, I hate showing up three points late to a total, but I'm willing to make an exception here.
UNC should be able to name its number offensively, while ETSU has enough explosiveness to contribute a couple of touchdowns and get this thing across the finish line.
Give me tons of points in Chapel Hill.
Pick: Over 54.5
ETSU vs UNC Betting Trends
