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The Sam Houston Bearkats take on the Missouri State Bears in Springfield, Missouri, on Tuesday, Oct. 27. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Missouri State is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Sam Houston, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +168 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Sam Houston vs. Missouri State prediction and college football pick for Tuesday, October 27.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Prediction
- Sam Houston vs. Missouri State Pick: Sam Houston +5.5
My Missouri State vs. Sam Houston best bet is on the Bearkats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -114 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +168 |
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -106 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -205 |
- Sam Houston vs Missouri State point spread: Missouri State -5.5 (-106), Sam Houston +5.5 (-114)
- Sam Houston vs Missouri State over/under: 50.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Sam Houston vs Missouri State moneyline: Sam Houston +168, Missouri State -205
Sam Houston vs Missouri State College Football Preview
Sam Houston State Bearkats Betting Preview: Need to Stay Disciplined
Sam Houston has endured plenty of problems this season. At 1-6, head coach Phil Longo is seeing another season slip away from him with minimal progress made.
The offense has been as inconsistent as any in Conference USA, and inefficient play on third down and in the red zone has caused far too many possessions to end in punts.
SHSU has the worst rushing offense in the country, as the Bearkats are averaging just 83 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry this season.
The play of the offensive line has been poor all season, allowing Havoc at a rate that ranks 135th nationally.
Quarterback Landyn Locke has completed 63% of his passes while throwing for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.
He's helped by an explosive receiver group led by Tim Burns Jr. and Chris Reed, who are averaging a combined 19 yards per reception with six touchdown catches this season.
Drops have been an issue on key downs, causing drives to stall, and the offense has started very slowly, not scoring an offensive touchdown in the first half all season.
The defense has played well against the pass this year, and there's some talent at linebacker and in the secondary. The pass rush has been pretty good as well, as SHSU ranks 22nd nationally in Havoc.
Penalties and undisciplined play have caused this defense to unravel each of the last three weeks, but on a down-to-down basis, this is one of the better defensive units in CUSA.
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: Getting In Their Own Way
Missouri State comes in at 2-5, and most of its winnable games in CUSA play have already taken place.
The offense has started to come to life after Henry Belin IV took over at quarterback, as the Duke transfer has back-to-back games throwing for 300 yards or more.
Isaiah Myers has shredded the opposition all season, posting four 100-yard efforts while registering six touchdown catches over his last four games.
The offensive line play has been poor, as Missouri State is allowing a lot of activity behind the line of scrimmage.
The ground game isn't great, but there have been more consistent rushing plays since Connor Lair has taken over the bulk of the carries at running back.
This offense has looked good the last two weeks, and it needs to be sharp again in this one if the Bears want to keep bowl eligibility in play.
Missouri State's defense has been one of the worst in the country this season, as the Bears are allowing 470 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against FBS competition.
The lack of a competent pass rush has caused the secondary to suffer. The coverage unit can't hold up, and opposing quarterbacks are dissecting Missouri State through the air.
The Bears have allowed 231 passing yards or more in every conference game and are allowing opponents to complete 67% of passes defended. This unit is the biggest liability on the field between these two teams.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Missouri State listed as a 6.5-point favorite, and Sam Houston has had a little action early in the week. The total comes in at 50.5.
I like Sam Houston to compete and take this one to the wire, so I'm willing to take the points at +5.5.
Missouri State has such an unreliable defense that can't pressure opposing quarterbacks or hold up in pass coverage.
The Bearkats have an explosive passing attack, and the receivers will have opportunities to win one-on-one battles down the field against Missouri State’s poor coverage unit.
Missouri State has been terrible defensively in early downs, ranking 137th nationally in early down Success Rate.
Sam Houston has to find success in first- and second-down situations, and I think the Bearkats can actually run the football a little bit to open up the pass. Locke has thrown the ball well, and without much pressure, he should look sharp here.
SHSU has a decent pass coverage unit, so Missouri State won't find explosives in the passing game.
The Bearkats have done a great job taking away their opponents' No. 1 receiver in conference play, and I think we see that play out here. Myers has shredded each of the last two opponents he has faced, and his play has really carried an otherwise stagnant offense.
If SHSU effectively takes him out of the game plan, as it did against TK King, Makai Jackson, Jonathan Stafford Jr. and Cameron Flowers, this Missouri State offense will struggle.
The Bears will have to run the ball more with Lair in this game, and Belin should struggle to get into a passing rhythm here.
I trust the SHSU defense to limit the pass explosives and force Missouri State into red-zone field-goal attempts or fourth-down decisions. The offense will move the ball, and this game should be tight throughout.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Betting Trends
