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This season's midweek CUSAction continues on Tuesday with two games.
Our college football experts, Road to CFB and Joshua Nunn, came through with two picks for Western Kentucky vs. Delaware and Missouri State vs. Sam Houston on Tuesday.
Let's dive into their Tuesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for October 27.
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Tuesday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Western Kentucky vs. Delaware Pick
By RoadToCFB
Western Kentucky opened this game up as a +2.5 underdog at home, a line that’s moved to now favoring the Toppers slightly. A total that opened at 57.5 was bet up quickly in the early week to 59.5 and, later in the week, back down to 56.5 points.
Action PRO logs six sharp moves to the under, but that number has moved through two important totals of 59 and 58.
The market is still catching up on these teams. Last week, WKU closed as a -1.5 favorite at Sam Houston and, the week before that, a +2.5 home ‘dog to Missouri State.
Now, WKU is laying 1.5 points at home against Delaware, a much higher-quality opponent whose market rating jumped at least a field goal with the return of quarterback Nick Minicucci.
We have an opportunity to bet against a Delaware offense that just throttled a terrible defense and scored 61 points on 482 yards of offense.
This year, trying to back road teams on these Weeknight CUSA games has been a disaster; since Week 5, road teams are 3-10-1 ATS on CUSA games played between Tuesday and Thursday (although they went 2-2 last week).
Instead, I’m going to continue fading Western Kentucky's Bodie Reeder as an offensive coordinator and WKU’s inability to score points even against forgiving defenses like Sam Houston.
Conversely, we’re able to sell high on a historic Delaware showcase that required four fields of 45 or fewer yards in the second half and three takeaways.
WKU’s secondary should hold up better against Minicucci and the Blue Hens.
It’s not the best this number has been, but it’s good above 55.
Pick: Under 56.5 (Play to 55.5)
| |
Missouri State vs. Sam Houston Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with Missouri State listed as a 6.5-point favorite, and Sam Houston has had a little action early in the week. The total comes in at 50.5.
I like Sam Houston to compete and take this one to the wire, so I'm willing to take the points at +5.5.
Missouri State has such an unreliable defense that it can't pressure opposing quarterbacks or hold up in pass coverage.
The Bearkats have an explosive passing attack, and the receivers will have opportunities to win one-on-one battles down the field against Missouri State’s poor coverage unit.
Missouri State has been terrible defensively in early downs, ranking 137th nationally in early down Success Rate.
Sam Houston has to find success in first- and second-down situations, and I think the Bearkats can actually run the football a little bit to open up the pass.
Quarterback Landyn Locke has thrown the ball well, and without much pressure, he should look sharp here.
SHSU has a decent pass coverage unit, so Missouri State won't find explosives in the passing game.
The Bearkats have done a great job taking away their opponents' No. 1 receiver in conference play, and I think we see that play out here. Isaiah Myers has shredded each of the last two opponents he has faced, and his play has really carried an otherwise stagnant offense.
If SHSU effectively takes him out of the game plan, as it did against TK King, Makai Jackson, Jonathan Stafford Jr. and Cameron Flowers, this Missouri State offense will struggle.
The Bears will have to run the ball more with running back Connor Lair in this game, and quarterback Henry Belin IV should struggle to get into a passing rhythm here.
I trust the SHSU defense to limit the pass explosives and force Missouri State into red-zone field-goal attempts or fourth-down decisions. The offense will move the ball, and this game should be tight throughout.
Pick: Sam Houston +5.5
