The Florida Gators take on the Miami Hurricanes in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -305. Florida, meanwhile, is a +7.5 underdog and comes in at +245 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Miami prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Florida vs Miami Prediction
- Florida vs. Miami Pick: Malachi Toney Over Receiving 76.5 Yards · Malachi Toney Anytime TD +200
My Miami vs. Florida best bet is on Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney to go over his receiving prop and score a touchdown. Find the best lines available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida vs Miami Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 50.5 -118o / -102u | +245 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 50.5 -118o / -102u | -305 |
- Florida vs Miami Spread: Miami -7.5, Florida +7.5
- Florida vs Miami Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Florida vs Miami Moneyline: Florida +245, Miami -305
Florida vs Miami College Football Betting Preview
Florida Gators Betting Preview: Lagway's Struggles Are Key
The Florida schedule doesn't get any easier after consecutive losses to USF and LSU. The Gators are now tasked with taking an undisciplined offense to Hard Rock Stadium against a Miami defense that ranks top-25 in Defensive Havoc.
Make no mistake on the primary issue of the Gators offense — it's their ranking of 128th in Havoc allowed.
Florida has allowed 23 tackles for loss this season, one of the 10 worst marks in the nation. On top of the offensive line issues, quarterback DJ Lagway posted six turnover-worthy plays and five interceptions against LSU.
Lagway has already met his entire season total of turnover-worthy plays from his freshman year.
Even more head-scratching is the pressure rate, as Lagway was pressured on 33% of dropbacks in 2024 compared to just 23% on 114 passing plays this season.
All six interceptions for the sophomore signal-caller have come against defenses that didn't blitz. In the face of these numbers, PFF ranks Florida as the fourth-best pass-blocking offensive line.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Ron Roberts has fielded a quality 3-3-5 unit that boasts a top-10 rank in Defensive Rush Efficiency and Line Yards. Florida has also faced the offenses of LSU and South Florida while maintaining a top-30 rank in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
With a special teams rank inside the top 15, the primary issue for the Gators completely revolved around the quarterback position.
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Stellar Defensive Squad
The transformation of the Hurricanes defense under coordinator Corey Hetherman has produced results.
Edge Rueben Bain Jr. has produced 12 pressures and 11 tackles this season, leading a defense that sits top-25 in Havoc.
Miami has been stingy and excellent against the run after games against talented offenses like Notre Dame and South Florida. The Hurricanes rank top-10 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, dominating nearly every run concept that has attempted to piece together a quality drive.
If there has been a weakness to this point, the Hurricanes have allowed explosive plays through the air. Notre Dame and USF combined for 10 passes over 15 yards.
Those gaps in coverage created scoring opportunities, where the Hurricanes are a modest 72nd in Finishing Drives allowed.
Florida vs Miami Pick, Betting Analysis
Florida head coach Billy Napier confirmed Lagway will still be the starter for the Gators heading into another hostile environment.
Backing the Florida offense all rides on its quarterback resolving footwork and decision-making issues.
It's notable that Lagway's worst outing in 2024 came against LSU, where he committed nearly half of his season-long turnover-worthy plays in a single game.
Action Network's betting power ratings indicate this game should sit at Florida +3.5, but considering the Gators were outgained in yards per play against USF and LSU, there may be a better angle in this game.
The Florida defense struggled against LSU and South Florida's passing offenses, generating the 99th-graded pass rush, per PFF. The Gators are bottom-15 in giving up explosives while in passing downs, an area where quarterback Carson Beck has multiple high-octane weapons.
USF's biggest target share went to slot receivers Christian Neptune and Mudia Reuben. LSU used a similar methodology, targeting the slot combo of Aaron Anderson and Bauer Sharp on 15 passing attempts.
Based on Florida's previous struggles against offensive coordinators using the slot, Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney should be in line for a super-sized game.
Pick: Malachi Toney Over 76.5 Yards or Better · Malachi Toney Anytime TD +200
