The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Boise State is favored by 17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -900. Fresno State, meanwhile, enters as a +17.5 underdog and is +600 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Fresno State vs. Boise State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction
- Fresno State vs. Boise State Pick: PICK
My Boise State vs. Fresno State best bet is on PICK. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Fresno State vs Boise State Odds
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
- Fresno State vs Boise State Spread: Boise State -17.5, Fresno State +17.5
- Fresno State vs Boise State Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Fresno State vs Boise State Moneyline: Fresno State +600, Boise State -900
Fresno State vs Boise State College Football Betting Preview
I’m taking Boise State at home, laying the 17.5 here.
Fresno State just got absolutely smoked last week by San Diego State, getting shut out at home. On top of that, quarterback EJ Warner got benched for Carson Conklin, who threw 42 times against the Aztecs, tossed two picks and averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt.
Fresno State feels like a team without a clear identity right now. Over the last two weeks, it has rushed for just 165 yards combined, averaging a disappointing 2.5 yards per carry.
This team normally wants to line up in 12 or 13 personnel, get the tight ends heavily involved in run blocking and just pound the ball. But it's completely abandoned that approach.
Defensively, Fresno is a mess, too, ranking as the third-worst defense in the Mountain West, per PFF. It's in the bottom half in pass coverage, pass rush and tackling.
I don’t see how it's going to slow down Boise State’s offense. Fresno’s defense ranks 120th in Success Rate allowed and 116th in Finishing Drives allowed. Their defense on early downs is also pathetic, coming in at 118th.
That spells big trouble against Boise’s run-first approach.
It's going to keep pounding the ball on first and second down and then open things up with play action, especially targeting tight ends with Maddux Madsen leading the charge in the passing game.
Fresno’s loss of identity and departure from what used to be a stronger team approach means I just don’t see it keeping pace.
Boise State’s defense is solid, ranking ninth in Passing Success Rate allowed and 16th overall. Fresno has been a disaster lately, going 9-of-30 on third downs and in the red zone over the last two weeks.
Everything points to Boise State dominating this matchup, so I’m laying the 17.5 with the Broncos at home. Fresno has no answers right now.
Pick: Boise State -17.5
Fresno State vs Boise State Betting Trends
