The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Hawaii Warriors in Honolulu, Hawaii. Kickoff is set for 11:59 p.m. ET on Spectrum Sports.
Fresno State is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 47 points.
Here’s my Fresno State vs. Hawaii prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
Fresno State vs Hawaii Prediction
- Fresno State vs. Hawaii Pick: Under 47.5
My Hawaii vs. Fresno State best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Fresno State vs Hawaii Odds
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +135 |
- Fresno State vs Hawaii point spread: Fresno State -3
- Fresno State vs Hawaii over/under: 47 points
- Fresno State vs Hawaii moneyline: Fresno State -160, Hawaii +135
Fresno State vs Hawaii Preview
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Team On a Run
Fresno State has rebounded very well from its Week 0 loss at Kansas, as the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight wins and have covered the number in each game.
Last week, Fresno State defeated HBCU Southern University 56-7 behind an efficient ground attack and quarterback E.J. Warner, who threw four touchdown passes.
This offense has really clicked the last several weeks after a disjointed, jerky performance on national TV against Kansas.
On defense, Fresno State really was able to lock in against Southern while allowing just 142 total yards on 45 plays last week. The pass defense played really well against Georgia Southern, but it also struggled against Oregon State on the road two weeks ago.
This will be a test for Fresno State, and I'll be interested to see how the Bulldogs' front seven can create pressure and get Micah Alejado on the move in this one.
Hawai'i Warriors Betting Preview: Banged up Bows Set for Test
Hawaii is already on its fifth game of the regular season, as it played in Week 0 and has yet to have a bye week. This will be its fourth home game of the season, and it's an important one, as rival Fresno State comes in for the final scheduled “Battle of the Golden Screw Driver."
The Rainbow Warriors are undoubtedly excited about the return of quarterback Alejado, who's missed the last two games while dealing with an ankle injury.
Hawaii is still banged up at receiver with Nick Cenacle being doubtful. Also, the Bows have a couple of offensive line injuries they're dealing with.
The offense looked really solid against Sam Houston a couple of weeks back, but the performance against Portland State was very puzzling.
It's stunning that Hawaii still can't figure out the run game, as the Bows have really struggled, while averaging just two yards per carry on 120 total rushing yards in the last two weeks.
I have very little confidence that this team can convert situationally, as the offensive line has shown zero propensity to open up holes or get a push in key spots.
Defensively, the Rainbow Warriors continue to perform well, having allowed just 275 total yards per game and 3.6 yards per rush on the season.
Hawaii has performed well defensively on third down, allowing just 32%, and its red zone performance has stood tall, as its opponents have scored just five touchdowns in 15 total red zone trips.
The power rushing attack of Fresno State will provide an excellent test of how competitive Hawaii’s defense will remain when it hits the crux of conference play.
Fresno State vs Hawaii Pick, Betting Analysis
I fully expect this game to be a slow-paced, slow-burning grinder. I'm going to take the under in this one.
We should see minimal overall pace of play in this one, as Fresno State is running nearly a full 30 seconds between plays this year and Hawaii is running at 26 seconds per play.
Hawaii rushing attack has been so disjointed this season, and it ranks just 132nd nationally in Offensive EPA Per Rush and just 128th in Rush Play Explosiveness.
Hawaii is throwing it around at such a high rate, but its Pass Play Success Rate is just 91st nationally and it's 100th in Pass Play Explosiveness.
Hawaii isn't a quick-strike offense, and the Bows are converting just 36% on third down. Red zone trips have stalled routinely, as Hawaii has scored just six touchdowns on 14 red zone trips.
The Bows have a rock-solid kicking operation that they can rely on, so the decision-making for Hawaii inside the opponent's 40-yard line has remained conservative, as head coach Timmy Chang has shown the willingness to just “take the 3”.
Fresno State is going to line up in 12 or 13 personnel with big bodies all over the field, and it's going to run the ball here a ton. Fresno State goes three deep at running back, led by Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke, who both average over six yards per rush attempt.
The pass game routinely features check downs to the running backs and tight ends, which create high percentage throws for Warner and favorable down and distance for this offense.
We should see long, methodical drives that require a high number of plays for Fresno State to move it, and the overall possession count should be lower than average.
Both teams have above-average punting units, and their punt coverage units rarely allow returns. I don’t expect explosives in special teams.
I do expect each of these offenses to have success moving the ball until they cross the opponent's 50-yard line, where the defenses will tighten up, and we'll see punts the other way or field goal attempts.
Stay up late and watch this one as this will be a fun football game. However, I just don’t see the scoring.
Pick: Under 47.5
