The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence, Kansas, for college football Week 0. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Kansas is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -485. Fresno State, meanwhile, comes in at +370 to pull off the upset. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here are my Fresno State vs. Kansas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 23, 2025.
Fresno State vs Kansas Prediction
- Fresno State vs. Kansas Pick: Over 50.5 (Play to 51.5) · Fresno State Team Total Over 17.5
My Kansas vs. Fresno State best bet is on both teams to go over the total and the Bulldogs to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Fresno State vs Kansas Odds
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -108 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | +370 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -112 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | -485 |
- Fresno State vs Kansas point spread: Kansas -12.5 (-112), Fresno State +12.5 (-108)
- Fresno State vs Kansas over/under: 50.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Fresno State vs Kansas moneyline: Fresno State +370, Kansas -485
Fresno State vs Kansas Preview
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Fresh Start in the Valley
Week 0 ushers in a new age in Fresno State football. Matt Entz takes over the program with plenty of championship pedigree.
Entz comes from North Dakota State, where he won two FCS National Championships in five years. Expect Entz to implement a more run-heavy approach in the Valley after the Bulldogs rushed on just 44.4% of plays last season (115th).
More run-focused though Fresno State might be, the quarterback position received an upgrade when it brought in E.J. Warner from Rice.
Warner, the son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, brings over 8,800 career passing yards but has thrown at least 12 interceptions in each of his three starting seasons.
Bryson Donelson is expected to be the first running back and could carry the load after averaging six yards per carry on 77 attempts last season. However, the offensive line is completely rebuilt and is far from the strongest unit.
A key hire on the other side of the ball is that of Northern Illinois defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto. Under Benedetto, NIU improved from 112th in Points per Drive allowed to seventh last season.
His defense didn’t create much Havoc, but rather stifled opposing passing games and severely limited explosive opportunities.
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview: Back in Lawrence
When Jalon Daniels took care of the football, Kansas was a pretty darn good football team.
The Jayhawks became the first team ever under .500 to beat three straight ranked teams. In that stretch, Daniels accounted for four touchdowns and no turnovers. KU began the year 0-5 against FBS opponents, and Daniels had more turnovers (10) than touchdowns (nine).
There’s plenty to replace between the backfield and receiving corps, but look for running back Daniel Hishaw Jr. to thrive in Lance Leipold’s system, which is now conducted by quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski.
Iowa transfer LeShon Williams should be another solid option, but he's returning from an injury-plagued 2024.
There are options out wide, but the cast is comprised of transfers. Someone needs to establish themselves as the top option.
Although Daniels and the KU offense stole the headlines in 2023, it was the defense that propelled the Jayhawks to a 9-4 mark.
Last year, that defense was nowhere to be found. The Jayhawks ranked near the bottom of the FBS in Early Down Success Rate allowed, Stuff Rate and explosive plays allowed.
Even when KU won four of its last six, the defense surrendered 28 points or more three times.
Defensively, two starters are back, including All-Big 12 selection Dean Miller at defensive end. The secondary is completely stripped — and likely for the better — but some of the replacements include Utah State transfer DJ Graham II (of ridiculous one-handed pick fame previously at Oklahoma) and those buried on the two-deep last year.
PICKED OFF!@OU_Football's defense comes up with an incredible INT! pic.twitter.com/sKFUa8167A
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 18, 2021
Kansas returns to David Booth Memorial Stadium with significant upgrades after two seasons away. Expect strong fan support early on.
Fresno State vs Kansas Pick, Betting Analysis
Moving the offense away from what’s worked at Fresno State might spring hesitancy on bettors, but it may work early on. Last year, Kansas was one of the worst run defenses in the country, allowing 200-plus yards on the ground five times (and 250-plus three times!).
The re-worked offensive line brings decent size, though the projected starting left tackle stands just 6-foot-3. Fresno returns just one defensive starter in the front seven from a unit that allowed more success on the ground than through the air.
Both teams should find success on the ground, and both roster turnover-prone QBs. While that might, at first, sound like a recipe for an under (the total moved away from the key 52, from 51.5 to 50.5), these are two offenses that should efficiently move the ball on the ground. They also both have QBs capable of throwing the ball downfield.
Action this offseason on the spread has been pretty one-sided. Fresno dropped from its +14 opening mark to +12.5 at the time of writing.
Given Kansas’ offense and returning playmakers, Fresno will have to keep pace offensively.
It should be able to do that on the ground, as the Jayhawks made minimal upgrades to the defensive front, and this is Game 1 under new defensive coordinator D.K. McDonald.
There’s potential for some rain in Lawrence, but as of midweek, it appears that precipitation is set for early in the day, petering out by kickoff. I wouldn’t overreact to the rain potential as of now.
Increased turnover potential means increased scoring potential on short fields. Questions across the board on both defenses has me leaning toward over 50.5 points.
I’m also considering Fresno State to go over its team total of 17.5, as I believe the move to a slower-paced offense that runs the ball was taken too heavily into consideration. This is still an offensive system capable of being extremely efficient.
Pick: Over 50.5 (Play to 51.5) · Fresno State Team Total Over 17.5
