Ohio State has beaten Texas twice since January: once in the College Football Playoff semifinal, once in last year's season opener — and controlled both games more than the final scores showed. Now the two teams meet again, this time at Texas's place in Austin, and the early pricing on Kalshi doesn't read like a rematch between a team that's swept the series. It reads like a coin flip. That gap between the recent history and the current market is exactly what makes this one worth watching before kickoff.
Keep reading if you want to know the best picks for Ohio State vs. Texas, and if you want more analysis and picks, don't forget to download the Action Network app.
Ohio State vs. Texas on Kalshi
Who Wins: A Series Sweep Meets a Market That Disagrees
Texas sits as the slight favorite on the moneyline market, roughly matching where sportsbooks have the game: the Longhorns favored by a point and a half to two points at home. That's a thin margin for a team that's dropped the last two meetings, and outside models don't fully agree with it either.
Both quarterbacks opened the year clean: Julian Sayin, who beat Manning as a true freshman making his first career start last season, went 21-of-25 for 320 yards without a turnover in Week 1.
Arch Manning answered with his own strong outing, four touchdown passes included. The gap showed up last year too, when Ohio State's defense forced 15 pressures on Manning in a game Texas managed only seven points to finish.
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has watched Manning's growth up close all the same, saying simply, "he got better and better and better." A market this tight, between two teams both coming off blowout wins, rarely holds still for long.
Texas by Less Than a Field Goal: In the First Half Alone
The first-half spread market has Texas favored by a modest margin through two quarters, and the price sits close enough to even money to matter. Texas opened its season by putting up 59 points, most of them before the starters came out early.
Ohio State, meanwhile, is breaking in a defense that lost seven starters to this year's NFL Draft, with five of them gone before the second round even wrapped up: the most any single college defense has lost that early since the draft moved to its current format. A fast start from Texas against a defense still finding its footing in front of more than 100,000 fans at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is a real scenario, and the market hasn't fully leaned either way yet.
First Team to Score: As Close as It Gets
Few contracts on this board are tighter than the one on which team scores the first touchdown.
Texas and Ohio State are separated by almost nothing, and the option for neither team scoring barely registers at all. Even Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has given credit to what's on the other sideline, saying Ohio State having two former NFL head coaches calling plays is "a nice luxury to have." Whichever offense wins the field-position battle early, or simply gets the ball first, could move this contract fast: which is likely part of why it's already drawing steady interest.
Kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET in Austin, and all three of these markets have already shifted more than once this week. For traders who think the last two results still mean something, or for those who see this as a true even matchup, the next few days of price movement could be the best window to get in before the number settles.
