The Idaho Vandals take on the Cal Poly Mustangs in San Luis Obispo, California, on Friday, Aug. 28. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Idaho is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. The total is set at 54.5 points.
Here’s my Idaho vs. Cal Poly prediction and college football picks for Friday, August 28.
Idaho vs Cal Poly Prediction
- Idaho vs Cal Poly Pick: Over 55.5
My Cal Poly vs. Idaho best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Idaho vs Cal Poly Odds
| Idaho Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -106 | 54.5 -113o / -113u | -166 |
| Cal Poly Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 54.5 -113o / -113u | +130 |
- Idaho vs Cal Poly point spread: Idaho -3.5, Cal Poly +3.5
- Idaho vs Cal Poly over/under: 54.5 (-113o / -113u)
- Idaho vs Cal Poly moneyline: Idaho -166, Cal Poly +130
Idaho vs Cal Poly College Football Preview
Idaho Vandals Betting Preview: Return to Glory?
Thomas Ford Jr. had a rough go of things in year one leading the Vandals.
Replacing Jason Eck was never going to be an easy task, but injuries at the quarterback position and a defense that failed to deliver a solid pass rush complicated matters as the Vandals plummeted down the Big Sky standings.
Ford cleaned house in the offseason, changing both coordinators and hiring a new special teams coach.
This is a pivotal season in Moscow for what has long been a very proud FCS program.
Joshua Wood is back at QB for the Vandals and, when healthy, he's one of the best dual-threat players in this league. Wood threw for 1,898 yards last season with 14 touchdowns, while also leading the team in rushing with 663 yards on the ground (before sacks) and seven rushing touchdowns.
Israel Carter transfers in and will be a serviceable backup, giving stability to the position, which Idaho didn't have last year.
The running back position will likely be held by committee this season. Carlos Matheney is the leading returner from last year, while Ferrari Miller and Damonte Bias transferred in from the JuCo ranks and could shine here in the system.
Three of the top five receivers from last season are back, and Zach Card transfers in from Oregon State. This should be a stronger and more productive receiver group.
Idaho returns four on the offensive line, which paved the way for 4.9 yards per carry on the ground last season while the unit surrendered just 17 sacks. They could be stronger this year.
Idaho had been built on a tough, physical defense, but the unit slipped last year, mainly due to having a weaker front. At times, the Vandals struggled to stop the run and registered just 15 sacks.
Both defensive ends need to be replaced and the pass rush could struggle once again early in the season. The interior defensive line could round into a decent group with Mitchel Jaskowiak and Titus Ringor back.
The linebacker room is retooling with Cruz Hepburn and Cincinnati transfer Darrell Gipson Jr. likely to anchor the production of this unit.
Idaho returns just one starter from last year’s secondary and the hope is that transfers from NC State, North Texas and Tulane — along with a pair of FCS transfers — can round out the two-deep.
Cal Poly Mustangs Betting Preview: A New-Look Offense
Cal Poly is coming off another tough season, which effectively ended the Paul Wulff coaching tenure.
In comes Tim Skipper, an excellent locker room manager, who has twice been an interim head coach at the FBS level, with successful stints at UCLA and Fresno State over the past couple of seasons.
Bo Kelly returns at quarterback after splitting reps with two other signal-callers and will be vying for the starting job this offseason.
Kelly threw for 706 yards with seven touchdowns last year and will be competing with returning Anthony Grigsby Jr., who put up similar numbers. Dermaricus Davis also transfers in from Hawaii, and as of writing, Cal Poly has not named a starter.
Whoever starts should play in a revamped offense, as Anthony Soto comes over from Mercer as the offensive coordinator after two successful seasons there.
Tyrei Washington and Kendric Sanders lead the returning running backs, and five productive receivers also return, headlined by Jordan Garrison and Alek Marshall.
Last season, Cal Poly struggled with injuries on the offensive line and as a result, 10 different players started a game for the Mustangs. Six of them are back this year, including both starting guards and center, while transfer Keanon McNally from Old Dominion could strengthen one of the tackle positions.
The defense has been a problem at Cal Poly for years, and last season was no different. The Mustangs allowed 31.5 points and 426 yards per game, which were actually improvements from prior campaigns.
The front was weak, registering just 21 sacks while giving up 4.6 yards per carry on the ground. Just two starters are back and a pair of FCS transfers are in the mix to log snaps.
Mikey D’Amato and Kenny Olson are two seasoned linebackers who return for the Mustangs and should anchor one of the better linebacker rooms in the Big Sky. Also, the Mustangs have some experience in the secondary.
Three experienced safeties return, headlined by DeMel Turner, and transfers from UCLA, MTSU and Fresno State are looking to crack the two-deep in their final years of eligibility.
Idaho vs Cal Poly Pick, Betting Analysis
I expect to see points in this matchup.
Soto revamped the Mercer offense quickly and procured a unit that was 15th in FCS scoring last season.
I like the weapons on the outside and was impressed last season with how Cal Poly competed offensively against Big Sky competition. The Mustangs will move the football on the Idaho defense and will have chances to score.
Cashing in when in the red zone will be critical for Cal Poly, which had decent red zone efficiency last season.
The Vandals are also going to have more consistency offensively and Wood should take another step this season at quarterback. I really like the offensive coordinator hire with Ian Shoemaker coming in from the D-II level.
Shoemaker orchestrated electrifying offenses while at Eastern Washington, and his platoon regularly averaged 42 points and 500 yards per game in the Big Sky.
I think that translates here, and Idaho should have plenty of success against what amounts to a subpar Big Sky defense in Cal Poly.
Pick: Over 55.5
