The Indiana Hoosiers take on the Maryland Terrapins in College Park, Md. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Indiana is favored by 21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. Maryland, meanwhile, enters as a +21.5 underdog and is +1000 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Indiana vs. Maryland prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Indiana vs Maryland Prediction
- Indiana vs. Maryland Pick: Under 50.5
My Maryland vs. Indiana best bet is for both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Indiana vs Maryland Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
- Indiana vs Maryland Spread: Indiana -21.5, Maryland +21.5
- Indiana vs Maryland Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Indiana vs Maryland Moneyline: Indiana -2000, Maryland +1000
Indiana vs Maryland College Football Betting Preview
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Balance and Precision on Offense
Indiana enters this matchup undefeated at 8–0, led by one of the most efficient offenses in the country — but efficiency doesn’t always mean fireworks.
The Hoosiers rank third nationally in Success Rate and seventh in Finishing Drives, showing they move the ball efficiently and cash in when opportunities come.
However, their style of play is far from fast-paced. Indiana ranks 119th in tempo, preferring to control possession and limit total drives. Its approach is about precision, not pace, wearing defenses down with consistent execution rather than explosive plays.
That control comes with trade-offs. Indiana ranks 107th in offensive explosiveness, meaning it rarely generates chunk plays downfield. The Hoosiers depend heavily on sustained drives, which shortens games and keeps point totals modest.
Adding to that, they’ve been sloppy at times, ranking 133rd in penalties, one of the worst marks in the country. Those mistakes can stall drives and kill scoring opportunities, especially against a disciplined opponent like Maryland.
The Hoosiers offense is built for balance, not chaos. Their elite third-down conversion rate (first nationally) and low Havoc allowed ranking (fourth) mean they can control games, but their pace, inefficiency in big-play creation and penalty issues all suppress scoring.
Combine that with a Maryland defense that thrives at limiting explosive plays, and Indiana’s offense could find itself moving the ball plenty but not necessarily lighting up the scoreboard.
Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview: Sound Defense
Maryland’s offense has been a step behind all year, and the numbers back it up. The Terrapins rank 116th nationally in Offensive Success Rate and 103rd in Finishing Drives.
They struggle to sustain drives and often fail to finish them when they do move the ball. The passing game has been inconsistent, and the offensive line hasn’t provided enough push to generate rhythm.
Defensively, though, this team is much better than its record suggests.
Maryland ranks 19th in Success Rate allowed and 26th in third-down defense, which fits perfectly against Indiana’s efficiency-based style. In fact, the Terps are 18th in PFF defensive grade with a 91.8.
The Terrapins aren’t built to dominate physically, but they’re sound in assignment and rarely give up chunk plays — a critical strength against an Indiana team that ranks 107th in explosiveness.
They also hold opponents to modest field position, sitting 73rd in opponent average start, and are top-30 in defensive hard stops.
Indiana is going to move the ball. The question is, will Maryland bend or break in the red zone?
If it can limit Indiana’s red-zone execution and force field goals instead of touchdowns, it'll do enough to slow the Hoosiers down.
The problem for Maryland will be sustaining offense of its own. Indiana’s defense is elite across the board, ranking fifth in Success Rate allowed, first in Havoc and third in third-down defense.
The Hoosiers thrive on forcing negative plays and keeping opponents behind schedule, and Maryland’s offense has struggled exactly in those situations.
Expect plenty of punts and short possessions early as Maryland tries to find its rhythm.
Indiana vs Maryland Pick, Betting Analysis
This matchup features two defenses perfectly suited to the other side’s tendencies.
Indiana’s offense relies on precision, not explosiveness, while Maryland’s defense specializes in taking away the big play and forcing everything underneath.
On the flip side, Indiana’s defense is one of the most disruptive in the nation, while Maryland’s offense struggles to string together successful plays.
If Maryland can pick up just a few first downs per drive before punting — and avoid giving Indiana short fields — this game could play directly into an under script.
The Hoosiers’ slow tempo (119th nationally) and tendency to play conservatively once ahead make blowouts rare. Even in its dominant wins, Indiana rarely piles on unnecessary points; it suffocates opponents rather than running up the score.
Turnovers and field position will be the swing factors.
Indiana’s defense should win most battles, but Maryland’s punting and situational defense should help it keep the game manageable.
Both teams are top-20 nationally in Success Rate allowed, and both offenses rank outside the top 100 in explosiveness. That combination almost always favors the under with long drives, few chunk plays and a limited number of total possessions.
Expect Indiana to control tempo with its methodical offense, while Maryland’s defense bends but doesn’t break.
The Terrapins offense likely won’t move the ball enough to create a high-scoring affair, but their defense should hold up well enough to keep Indiana in the 24-31 point range.
Unless Maryland suddenly discovers offensive rhythm (which is unlikely against a defense ranked top-five in nearly every efficiency metric), this total feels inflated.
This game has the makings of a grind: two teams content to play slow, two defenses that don’t give up big plays and one offense (Maryland’s) that will struggle to sustain drives.
I think both teams will struggle to score points, especially if it rains as expected.
Pick: Under 50.5
Indiana vs Maryland Betting Trends
