The Indiana Hoosiers take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette on Friday, Nov. 28. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Indiana is favored by 28.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -4500. Purdue, meanwhile, enters as a +28.5 underdog and is +1600 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here’s my Indiana vs. Purdue prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 28.
Indiana vs Purdue Prediction
- Indiana vs. Purdue Pick: Indiana -28.5
My Purdue vs. Indiana best bet is on the Hoosiers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Indiana vs Purdue Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 -108 | 54.5 -108o / -112u | -4500 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -112 | 54.5 -108o / -112u | +1600 |
- Indiana vs Purdue Spread: Indiana -28.5, Purdue +28.5
- Indiana vs Purdue Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Indiana vs Purdue Moneyline: Indiana -4500, Purdue +1600
Indiana vs Purdue College Football Betting Preview
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Blowout Incoming?
Don't look now, Hoosier fans, but Indiana is officially a football school under head coach Curt Cignetti.
Indiana isn't just winning games; it's blowing opponents out. Only two of its games this year have been won by one score (Iowa and Penn State).
The Penn State game is the clearest example that this team is made to win, even when it puts forth its worst performance of the year. However, I don't think the Hoosiers will need a last-second miracle touchdown catch to win this one.
On offense, Indiana ranks:
- 2nd in Success Rate
- 5th in Points Per Opportunity
- 6th in Havoc allowed
- 1st in third-down conversion rate
- 1st in standard down rate
- 2nd in PFF overall offensive grade (7th in passing grade, 10th in rushing grade)
On defense, Indiana ranks:
- 5th in Success Rate allowed
- 1st in Points Per Opportunity allowed
- 1st in Havoc
- 2nd in third-down conversion rate allowed
- 9th in standard down rate allowed
- 2nd in PFF overall defensive grade (yes, the same ranking as the offense)
Look for quarterback Fernando Mendoza to have an absolutely massive day to boost his Heisman campaign. Indiana should move the ball however it wants and stop Purdue nearly every drive.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: At a Big Disadvantage
It has been a rough year for the Boilermakers.
They've dropped nine in a row, including two back-to-back blowout losses to Ohio State and Washington. And they haven't even done a good job of beating low expectations, with just a 40% win percentage against the closing spread.
They've also seen the over hit in just 25% of their games so far this year. So, they've been bad and boring — a rough combo.
One look at their advanced metrics is enough to see why. On offense, Purdue ranks:
- 65th in Success Rate
- 113th in Points Per Opportunity
- 94th in Havoc allowed
- 95th in third-down conversion rate
- 81st in standard down rate
- 111th in PFF overall offensive grade (80th in passing grade, 82nd in rushing grade)
On defense, Purdue ranks:
- 126th in Success Rate allowed
- 81st in Points Per Opportunity allowed
- 82nd in Havoc
- 100th in third-down conversion rate allowed
- 127th in standard down rate allowed
- 131st in PFF overall defensive grade
Now, I'm not saying there's no hope for this program in general.
I'm actually a big Barry Odom guy and think he's a solid program builder. It's just going to take a bit of time, especially in the Big Ten. Not only that, but all of a sudden, it's not the preemptive college football power in the state of Indiana.
However, that long-term optimism certainly doesn't apply to Friday.
Indiana vs Purdue Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm not going to waste anyone's time here. Both the total and the spread will be determined by Cignetti's willingness to call off the dogs. And as we've seen, when he pulls the starters out, the backups still try to run the score up.
We saw last year that he's more than happy to embarrass Purdue (66-0), and I see a repeat of that this year.
I'm not sure there's a team that wants this season to be over more than the Boilermakers after two straight blowouts and a final game against a team that nearly put up a 70-burger on them last year.
It would be a nice story if Purdue could band together here and keep this one close. But I don't see that happening.
Cignetti is willing and able to embarrass an in-state opponent. I think there's a chance he wants to get to 70 this year. This spread could be in the high 30s, and I'd still hit it.
Pick: Indiana -28.5
Indiana vs Purdue Betting Trends
