In an ever-changing college football landscape, one thing hasn't changed: Kirk Ferentz roaming the sidelines at Kinnick Stadium. He's in his 28th season as Iowa's head coach, which means he has been involved in a lot of Cy-Hawk Trophy battles.
Ferentz has gone 14-12 against Iowa State, but the Cyclones have won three of the last four meetings.
Iowa State is a program that's more than 100 games below .500 in its history. It just lost one of its most successful coaches in school history, Matt Campbell, after he led the program to eight winning seasons in 10 years.
New head coach Jimmy Rogers stepped in with big shoes to fill after many of Campbell's players followed him to Penn State.
As a result, most aren't expecting much from the Cyclones this season, and they're two-touchdown underdogs in this game. Will they continue their success over their hated in-state rival, or will the Cy-Hawk Trophy return to Iowa City?
Here's my Iowa vs. Iowa State picks and college football parlay for Saturday, September 12.
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Iowa vs Iowa State Picks, Parlay
- Kamari Moulton 100+ Rushing Yards + Anytime Touchdown
- Tony Diaz 50+ Receiving Yards
- Under 42.5
Parlay Odds: +856 via FanDuel
Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa vs Iowa State Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -105 | 41.5 -102o / -118u | -600 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -114 | 41.5 -102o / -118u | +450 |
Iowa Player Props: Kamari Moulton 100+ Rushing Yards (-106) + Anytime Touchdown (-290)
In 2024, Kaleb Johnson nearly reset the Iowa record books, rushing for the third-most rushing yards in school history (1,537) while setting the record for rushing touchdowns (21) and total touchdowns (23).
Kamari Moulton was the understudy then, nearly rushing for 500 yards before almost rushing for 900 yards last season. From Week 3 on, Moulton rushed for at least 75 yards in every game.
While he didn't have a 100-yard game, he posted five games between 90 and 99 rushing yards.
However, last week, Moulton needed only 11 carries to rush for 183 yards and two touchdowns. It was the second 100-yard game of his career, and that's now his rushing line for this week.
While the Hawkeyes step up in competition this week, they're a comfortable favorite at home, and I like them to win this week.
If Iowa has a lead in the second half, Moulton should get a lot of work trying to salt the game away. He recorded at least 14 carries in each of his final 10 games last season and a season-high of 23 carries against Oregon.
He averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season, so if he approaches 20 carries this week, he should cash 100 yards and find the end zone.
Iowa Player Prop Pick: Tony Diaz 50+ Receiving Yards (-114)
At UT Rio Grande Valley, Tony Diaz hauled in 67 passes for 884 yards and 11 touchdowns. He led all FCS freshmen in receiving yards and had an Alabama offer in the transfer portal.
After he arrived in Iowa City, hype started to build. He was a standout in team workouts, so much so that longtime supporters of the program began to wonder why a receiver with his ability would choose an Iowa team rarely known for its passing game.
Then, in Week 1, he proved the hype was justified, going for seven receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown on the first drive of the game.
Diaz commanded 15 targets, the most of any Iowa wide receiver in their debut during the Ferentz era. He also drew two pass interference penalties.
With that in mind, both Diaz and his quarterbacks likely feel there's a lot of meat left on the bone.
Last week's blowout allowed the Hawkeyes to get reps for three quarterbacks. Hank Brown got the start and connected with Diaz for his touchdown reception. Whoever is under center for the Hawkeyes will be looking for Diaz early and often.
Over/Under Pick: Under 42.5 (-142)
While I like Moulton and Diaz this week, it's hard not to like the under of any Iowa game, particularly when the Cy-Hawk Trophy is involved.
Over their last 10 games, Iowa has gone 6-4 to the under, while Iowa State is 7-3.
Head-to-head, the under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings, and six of the last seven meetings have gone under 42 points. If Week 1 is any indication, points may be at a premium again.
Iowa pitched a shutout (40-0) and held Northern Illinois to 120 total yards. Iowa State's game against Southeast Missouri State saw 48 points, but it still went under a total of 52.5 points.
This may be a week where the Cyclones don't find as much success offensively.
In terms of returning production, Iowa State ranks near the bottom across the country, losing 55 players, many of whom followed Campbell to Happy Valley. There's not an offensive returnee who had more than 87 yards from scrimmage or took more than 48 snaps on the offensive line.
While the new group of Cyclones has a game under their belt, they now have to face a Hawkeyes defense that's typically among the nation's best.
Under Campbell and Rocco Becht, ISU had some pretty offenses, yet they scored between seven and 20 points over the last four meetings in the Cy-Hawk game. That's fitting because they are projected for 13 points this week.
If they hang around there again, this game should go under 42. I moved back from 40.5 to get on the right side of the key number. Plus, we benefit from negative correlation with the Hawkeyes' props.
Iowa vs Iowa State Same-Game Parlay
- Kamari Moulton 100+ Rushing Yards and Anytime Touchdown
- Tony Diaz 50+ Receiving Yards
- Under 42.5
Parlay Odds: +856 via FanDuel
