The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, Sept. 6. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
The No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (2-0) are favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -175. The Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0), meanwhile, come in at +145 to pull off the upset and take the Cy-Hawk Trophy back to Iowa City. The total sits at 42.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Iowa vs Iowa State Predictions, Picks For Cy-Hawk
- Iowa vs. Iowa State Pick: Iowa +3.5
My Iowa State vs. Iowa best bet is on the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa vs Iowa State Odds, Start Time
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
- Iowa vs Iowa State Spread: Iowa State -3.5, Iowa +3.5
- Iowa vs Iowa State Over/Under: 42.5
- Iowa vs Iowa State Moneyline: Iowa +145, Iowa State -175
Iowa vs Iowa State Cy-Hawk Best Bets
Why Iowa Can Cover
The Mark Gronowski era did not start according to plan in Iowa City.
The highly-touted quarterback from South Dakota State started 8-for-15 in his passing career as a Hawkeye, often underthrowing targets and generating no big-time throws.
Offensive coordinator Tim Lester looked for downfield success in the passing game, but running the ball pulled Iowa out of danger against Albany.
An injury to starting running back Kamari Moulton opened the door for redshirt freshman Xavier Williams. Through zone read option with Gronowski, Williams generated 122 rushing yards on 11 attempts.
Iowa will continue to use the ground game as the backbone of the offense, but Gronowski's numbers must improve for the Hawkeyes to take the next step.
The defense met the expectations of previous Iowa teams, producing 14 pressures against Albany's offense.
Edge Max Llewellyn and Brian Allen have been charged with leading the Havoc-minded defense under coordinator Phil Parker.
Albany was unable to create a single methodical or explosive drive, a positive for Iowa defensively heading into the Cy-Hawk rivalry.
Why Iowa State Can Cover
Iowa State's multiple personnel packages are back after the departure of two explosive wide receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
The Cyclones have used a considerable amount of 12, 13 and 14 personnel through two games, but there are a number of offensive numbers left to be desired.
Quarterback Rocco Becht has seen 12 pressures in 26 dropbacks this season, indicating that the offensive line has struggled in protection against Kansas State and South Dakota.
King-sized tight end Benjamin Brahmer leads the way in targets and touchdown catches on the season.
The bigger question remains on the defensive side of the ball in the 3-3-5 stack.
Nose tackle Domonique Orange has been essential in stopping the zone read, but ISU still allowed the Kansas State rushing attack to average 4.7 yards per play.
In a short sample size for 2025, Iowa State has a low 30% Success Rate against teams using outside zone read concepts.
How To Make Iowa vs. Iowa State Picks
The Iowa offense may need a few games of maturation before a vertical passing attack develops. The good news is the use of inside and outside zone read with Gronowski and a stable of running backs.
Moulton is not expected to be available for Iowa in this game, giving more carries to the explosive Williams against an Iowa State defense that struggles to defend the run.
Iowa State, meanwhile, lost the yards-per-play battle against Kansas State in Ireland.
The Cyclones have a protection issue on the offensive side of the ball. Tackles Tyler Miller and James Neal III have already given up seven pressures on the season, a bad sign against Iowa's edge defenders.
Becht has been careless with the ball, even considering the increase in pressure, producing three fumbles through two games.
The trends point to the road team winning in this series, as the visitor has won the Cy-Hawk Trophy in each of the last five iterations.
Action Network's betting power ratings make Iowa State a favorite by a single point, giving any number over a field goal value to the road team.
Pick: Iowa +3.5 or Better
Where To Watch Iowa vs Iowa State Live
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
- Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
