Purdue vs. Iowa Betting Odds & Pick: Fade the Hawkeyes With a New Quarterback? (Oct. 24)

Purdue vs. Iowa Betting Odds & Pick: Fade the Hawkeyes With a New Quarterback? (Oct. 24) article feature image
Credit:

Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Rondale Moore.

Editor’s Note: This article was published before Purdue’s Rondale Moore was ruled out for an undisclosed reason.

Purdue vs. Iowa Odds

Purdue Odds +3 [BET NOW]
Iowa Odds -3 [BET NOW]
Moneyline +140/-167 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 52.5 [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Big Ten Network

Odds as of Saturday at 2:40 p.m. ET and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

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Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes will feature plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball in their return to play this weekend, following an unsettling offseason of roster turnover and program turmoil. A 25-point victory in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl kicked off the offseason on a positive note until an investigation unearthed racial bias within the program. As of this week, eight former players are suing the school for $20 million and want Kirk Ferentz to resign over racial discrimination.

If the off-field distractions weren’t enough, Iowa must replace plenty of holes. Quarterback Nate Stanley departs an offense that returns 50% of its starters and ranked 45th in Success Rate last season. Spencer Petras takes over the reins under center with a promising pedigree but only a handful of snaps from 2019 to serve as experience. Ihmir Smith-Marsette returns at wide receiver after collecting 76 targets and five touchdowns last season.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette goes 98-yards to the 🏠!

Iowa (+1.5) go up 21-14 🚀

pic.twitter.com/t4C1Ahcfuq

— PointsBet Iowa (@PointsBetIA) December 28, 2019

Iowa finished last season ranked 108th in seconds per play with an offense that ran as much 12 and 21 personnel as 11. Offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs moves along to the NFL, but the Hawkeyes have six players that received at least 100 snaps in the trenches in 2019.

The defense ranked 35th in Success Rate last season and returns 56% of its production. AJ Epenesa has moved on to the NFL, leaving behind 11.5 sacks and 41 hurries. The defense still returns plenty in the front seven, with Chauncey Golston forcing 26 hurries and defensive back Jack Koerner being the top tackler last year.

Chauncey Golston (@2live57) continues to be a nightmare for opposing offensive lines. After 2.5 tackles for loss and an interception, Golston is now up to 6 tackles for loss on the season.#WNSFilm pic.twitter.com/dP1j8xMP9b

— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) October 28, 2019


Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue’s biggest offseason news was Rondale Moore opting back in to play for the Boilermakers. Limited in action due to injury in 2019, Moore became a household name in the college football world with an upset of Ohio State in 2018.

if any non-quarterback can win the 2020 Heisman, it's Purdue WR Rondale Moore: https://t.co/OdQxJDY0Mi pic.twitter.com/cnLVR6QcTZ

— Anthony Treash (@PFF_Anthony) May 4, 2020

The standout wide receiver returns to a loaded roster with two quarterbacks that have each logged significant playing time. Both Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell had over 100 attempts in a season lost to injury up and down the roster.



With wide receiver David Bell also in the fold, Purdue has the returning production to be the most explosive passing attack in the Big Ten.

The Boilermakers also return 73% of their 2019 production on the defensive side of the ball. Edge rushers George Karlaftis and Derrick Barnes return, along with their combined 14 sacks and 60 hurries. The defense needs to improve, or Purdue may be a weekly over target. The Boilermakers ranked 115th in Success Rate against the rush, 107th in Havoc and 101st in Sack Rate.


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Betting Analysis & Pick

The news of Jeff Brohm testing positive for COVID-19 is worth a minimum of two points to the spread. Other coaches have tested positive, and it has been an auto-move on the point spread. When a coach like Nick Saban is sidelined with COVID-19, it may not have the impact the market expects. Saban does not call plays on either side of the ball, but Brohm has called every play at every stop of his career. Offensive coordinator Brian Brohm is up for the challenge for the first time in his career.

The handicap relies on whether or not the Iowa secondary can contain two of the best receivers in the conference. The Hawkeyes will be without defensive backs Michael Ojemudia and Geno Stone, who combined for 98 opponent targets last season. In 67 targets against Ojemudia, opponents scored just one touchdown and netted only 76 yards after catch.

A bet on Purdue is backing Brian Brohm’s play-calling to get the ball in the hands of Moore and Bell against a relatively inexperienced Iowa secondary.

Pick: Purdue +3

Editor’s Note: This article was published before Purdue’s Rondale Moore was ruled out for an undisclosed reason.

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