JMU vs Air Force Pick, Odds: The Spread Bet to Make
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JMU Dukes vs Air Force Falcons Odds
| JMU Dukes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Air Force Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -135 |
The Armed Forces Bowl takes us down to Fort Worth, Texas, where the James Madison Dukes will take on the Air Force Falcons in what should be a tight one between two teams who bounced into the Top 25 this season.
The Dukes finished their season at 11-1 with their only loss coming in the penultimate week of the regular season against a good Appalachian State team.
Air Force, meanwhile, started 8-0 to begin the year but finds itself on a four-game skid going into bowl season.
Will JMU continue to roll here, or will Air Force right the ship and come away with a win to cap off a solid season?
The Dukes are preparing for this game without head coach Curt Cignetti after he departed for the head-coaching job with the Indiana Hoosiers. With this news comes a whirl of starters entering the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Included in the transfer portal is starting quarterback Jordan McCloud. Although many have entered the portal, they all anticipate suiting up and playing in a Dukes uniform one final time together.
JMU has established some stability regarding the head-coaching job, announcing former Holy Cross head man Bob Chesney as the new coach a few weeks ago.
With some stability surrounding the roster and coaching spots, the Dukes also have some on-field matchups they can exploit.
The matchup James Madison will want to exploit, as it has all year, rests on the shoulders of McCloud and his receiving corps. The Dukes rank fifth nationally in Passing Success Rate. While JMU ranks just 91st in explosiveness, this is still a steady pass attack that takes what the defense gives it.
McCloud has a 32:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season while throwing for over 3,000 yards. He also offers some ability with his legs that has kept defenses guessing all season, as he has picked up eight touchdowns on the ground.
The Dukes’ run game is not very good, coming in at 101st in Rushing Success Rate. They will need to use the run game strategically in this one to keep some sort of offensive balance before Air Force starts dropping everyone into coverage.
Defensively, this Dukes team is excellent. They rank second in Defensive Success Rate and Havoc on the year.
The key news for this defense is that its linebacker trio is expected to play, which has been a key to the Dukes’ ability to stop the run this year. They rank first against the run this season, and they'll need to show out against an Air Force team that relies heavily on the run.
James Madison has a solid secondary that ranks 19th against the pass as well.
Points will be tough to come by for Air Force unless it can create some explosive plays — an area where James Madison ranks just 128th on the year.
Air Force has a bit more stability on the coaching side in this one, as it enters with the staff it's had all season. It also has most of its roster playing in this one with fewer names in the transfer portal, so the Falcons may enter this one a bit more focused than James Madison.
After a sour final four weeks of the regular season, the Falcons will be desperately looking for a positive note to end the year.
In typical Air Force fashion, this team does not want to throw the ball at all unless it absolutely has to. Running the triple option, it ranks 81st in pass rate, opting to wear defenses down instead.
The Falcons' triple option has proven to be tough to stop, as they rank 32nd in Rush Success. However, they don't rip off big plays, ranking 74th in explosiveness.
The triple option is tough to stop, but it's predictable, which typically keeps Air Force from scoring a ton of points offensively. Where the Falcons take advantage is the play-action pass, as they lead the nation in passing explosiveness when they do decide to throw the ball.
They'll need to utilize a few of these plays to pick up some chunk yards and quick points against a stout James Madison run defense.
Air Force also boasts a solid defense that ranks 43rd in Defensive Success Rate.
The area of concern is its pass defense that ranks 65th, which may be an issue against McCloud and that prolific Dukes aerial attack.
The other area of concern is its inability to force a great deal of turnovers. The Falcons come into this game with a -4 turnover margin on the year. They'll need to throw some different looks at McCloud to force him into one or two key mistakes.
Fortunately for Air Force, the Falcons are solid against the run, ranking 34th in Success Rate and 18th in explosiveness allowed.
If Air Force can control the line of scrimmage while dropping eight in coverage, it will have a good chance to slow down this JMU passing attack.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how James Madison and Air Force match up statistically:
James Madison Offense vs. Air Force Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 99 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 72 | |
| Quality Drives | 50 | 26 |
Air Force Offense vs. James Madison Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 7 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 7 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 103 | 5 |
| PFF Coverage | 15 | 10 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 44 | 40 |
| Middle 8 | 33 | 41 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.0 (89) | 31.6 (132) |
| Rush Rate | 51.8% (85) | 86.8% (1) |
James Madison vs Air Force
Betting Pick & Prediction
This one figures to be a defensive slugfest between two teams with great defenses that match up pretty well with each other.
Despite the coaching and portal news at James Madison, the Dukes can keep their historic season moving forward with a big win in Fort Worth this Saturday.
McCloud is just too dynamic for the Air Force defense, and the linebacker trio from James Madison will play a key role in slowing down Air Force's triple option.
I don't trust the Falcons to pick up enough big plays through the air to beat the Dukes, so give me JMU down to -1.5.
Pick: James Madison +2 (Play to -1.5)
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