The Kentucky Wildcats host the Alabama Crimson Tide for a rare college football Week 2 SEC battle. Kickoff takes place at 3:30 p.m. ET at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky.
Alabama is a 10-point favorite, with a moneyline of -410, while Kentucky comes in at +320. The total is currently set at 48.5 points.
I came through with a 3-leg parlay featuring a spread pick, a total prediction and an Alabama player prop. Combine all three, and you get a parlay at over 5-1 odds.
So, here are my Kentucky vs Alabama picks and college football parlay for Saturday, September 12.
Kentucky vs Alabama Picks, Parlay
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Kentucky vs Alabama Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | +320 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | -410 |
Over/Under Pick: Under 48.5
If the weather lines up with the forecast, this has the makings of an ugly, ugly game.
I know Gump Nation got a chill down their spines upon reading that.
Alabama’s recent history with rainy games with lightning delays on the horizon isn’t pretty, especially after the debacle two seasons ago against USF.
Needless to say, I don’t think this Alabama program is the same as that team.
I’ve noticed a tremendous amount of poise from redshirt freshman quarterback Keelon Russell. Sure, there were some operational mishaps, but Russell took responsibility for that. And his ability to extend plays with his legs was crucial.
But because this is a rainy game, I don’t expect many fireworks. Russell has a dynamic arm, but if the rain keeps up, the Tide and the Wildcats will be forced to move this game to the ground.
That could be a problem for Kentucky.
Granted, it was against East Carolina, but Alabama’s run game looked exceptional. Outside of Russell, running backs Daniel Hill, EJ Crowell, and Trae’shawn Brown were the stars of the show.
Meanwhile, Kentucky’s rush defense ranked 91st in Success Rate allowed, 80th in PPA allowed, and 71st in explosiveness allowed.
Spread Pick: Kentucky +10
There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Wildcats, and a lot of it is warranted.
Granted, last week’s win came against FCS Youngstown State, but Kentucky quarterback Kenny Minchey has looked the part.
One of Minchey’s top traits is his pocket presence, but Alabama’s pass rush is dangerous. Yhonzae Pierre is quickly ascending as one of the premier pass rushers in the FBS.
However, Minchey is a dual-threat signal-caller. He isn’t known for being a runner, but when given the space, he's a threat to take off. And last season, Alabama struggled mightily against running quarterbacks.
Players like Tommy Castellanos, LaNorris Sellers and Diego Pavia chewed up the Bama defense when scrambling.
Let’s also address the elephant in the room. Head coach Will Stein wants Kentucky fans to be rocking. Who’s to know if that happens or not, but needless to say, it would be big in Week 2.
With me projecting this to be a low-scoring game, Minchey’s ability to take off, and a possibly rocking crowd, I can see this being close.
Alabama Player Prop: Daniel Hill Over 40.5 Rush Yards
To keep up with the “ugly game” theme, I can see Hill having himself a big game.
Coming into this season, my biggest concerns about Hill were his ability in open space and at one-on-one plays. I didn’t see the explosiveness needed out of an every-down back.
After Week 1, I saw a positive step in his explosiveness and, even more, his willingness to welcome contact as well.
The big question here is if Kalen DeBoer decides to have Hill as the headliner. After the performances of Crowell and Brown, there’s a good enough reason to roll out a committee.
How I see it, though: we did see Hill get a majority of the carries outside of Russell. With this being the first SEC matchup, I would expect a player like Hill, who has experience in SEC battles, to continue to receive the bulk of the carries.
Kentucky vs Alabama Same-Game Parlay
- Under 48.5
- Kentucky +10
- Daniel Hill Over 40.5 Rush Yards
Parlay Odds: +562 (FanDuel)
