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The Louisville Cardinals take on the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Louisville is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 58.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. NC State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026.
Louisville vs NC State Prediction
- Louisville vs. NC State Pick: NC State +3.5
My NC State vs. Louisville best bet is on the Wolfpack to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisville vs NC State Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -184 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +152 |
- Louisville vs NC State point spread: Louisville -3.5 (-115), NC State +3.5 (-105)
- Louisville vs NC State over/under: 58.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Louisville vs NC State moneyline: Louisville -184, NC State +152
Louisville vs NC State College Football Preview
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: QB Uncertainty
Louisville is undoubtedly the more talented team in this matchup. But there are a lot of questions entering the matchup with the Wolfpack, specifically on the injury report.
The Cardinals’ offense has been legitimately excellent, generating +0.34 EPA/Play with a 50% success rate while averaging 10.2 yards per attempt.
QB Lincoln Kienholz has been the engine of the offense. He’s completed 68.8% of his passes for 1,140 yards, seven touchdowns, and only one interception while adding six rushing touchdowns, and he threw for 324 yards against Wake Forest.
There’s only one problem: we don’t know if he’s playing. Kienholz injured his left leg on Louisville’s final offensive snap against Wake and is officially questionable on the ACC availability report.
Jeff Brohm has called him a game-time decision, but the market movement tells me he probably will not give it a go.
Louisville’s defense also hasn’t matched the offense, particularly through the air. The Cardinals are allowing +0.38 EPA/Pass, which ranks 124th nationally, and Wake just generated multiple explosives in a 30-27 upset.
This is an atypical get-right spot after a big loss, but with Kienholz's injury uncertainty, I can’t take Louisville. The Cardinals' defense is a complete disaster, so if their offense isn’t at full strength, there’s no way they can cover this number.
North Carolina State Wolfpack Betting Preview: Moving the Ball
NC State isn’t an easy team to trust, like in the Vanderbilt game, but that’s why we’re getting +3.5 at Carter-Finley.
The Wolfpack nearly blew a 28-7 lead against App State last week before responding with a late touchdown drive to win, 41-31. But the offensive performance was much better than the fourth-quarter collapse suggests.
CJ Bailey threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, while Duke Scott shredded the Mountaineers for 148 rushing yards. NC State finished with 459 total yards, 26 first downs and controlled possession for over 36 minutes.
The season-long efficiency is solid, too. NC State owns a 48.8% success rate and +0.22 EPA/Play offensively while converting 53.6% of its third downs (11th nationally).
The Wolfpack are also averaging 4.68 points per scoring opportunity, which ranks 25th. That matters against a Louisville defense that's been vulnerable to explosives and just surrendered 30 points at home to Wake Forest.
Would I be running to bet NC State if Kienholz was healthy? No, but given the state of Louisville’s defense and the Wolfpack’s ability to move the ball, I’m all in.
Louisville vs NC State Pick, Betting Analysis
Hold your nose. This is NC State or a pass for me, but there's certainly a path to a cover.
Louisville opened around -7.5, but the market has hammered this thing through a key number all the way to -3.5, as Kienholz’s status has become increasingly uncertain. That’s a massive move, and I still want the 'dog before it crosses the key number of 3.
Even if Kienholz plays, there’s a meaningful difference between being medically cleared and having full mobility, particularly for a quarterback with six rushing touchdowns whose legs are a legitimate component of Brohm’s offense.
If he doesn’t go, West Georgia transfer Davin Wydner would be making his first Louisville start in a hostile conference road environment.
NC State also has an offensive path regardless, which is why I'll wait to bet this number in case Kienholz plays.
Bailey and Scott get a Louisville defense allowing +0.38 EPA/Pass, while the Wolfpack’s 48.8% success rate and 53.6% third-down conversion rate should allow them to sustain possessions.
Louisville has also been its own worst enemy, averaging nine penalties and 93 penalty yards per game.
Give me the healthier quarterback situation and the hook above three. I know it’s gross, but Bailey will keep the Wolfpack in this game regardless of who’s at QB for the Cardinals.
Pick: NC State +3.5
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