Mississippi State vs LSU Odds, Prediction & Picks | Saturday SEC Betting Guide

Mississippi State vs LSU Odds, Prediction & Picks | Saturday SEC Betting Guide article feature image

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: LSU’s Jayden Daniels.

Mississippi State vs LSU Odds

Saturday, September 16
Noon ET
Mississippi State Odds
-110o / -110u
LSU Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

The 2023 season did not start off as expected for LSU as it suffered a blowout loss in Camping World Stadium to Florida State. The Tigers carried a lead into the second half, only to see the Seminoles bully their way to 21 points in the fourth quarter for a comfortable 45-24 victory.

LSU regrouped with a 72-10 rout of Grambling State in Week 2.

Mississippi State entered the season with the lowest expectations of all teams in the SEC West because head coach Zach Arnett implemented a change in offensive philosophy. After spending years in Mike Leach's Air Raid scheme, the Bulldogs now run the ball as much as any other team at 63% of all snaps.

Miss State dominated Southeastern Louisiana in the opener before needing overtime to beat Arizona in Starkville in Week 2.

With two games in their new offensive system under their belt, the Bulldogs will look to ramp up the intensity against a Tigers team looking to start conference play on a high note.

Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for LSU vs Mississippi State below.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

New Mississippi State offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay had previous stops at Appalachian State, Central Michigan and Stephen F. Austin. Each of those programs utilized a heavy rush attack, similar to what Mississippi State has displayed through two games this season.

The Bulldogs averaged just 4.3 yards per play on rushing attempts versus Arizona, recording only one explosive run in the process. Jo'Quavious Marks has been the bell cow with 24 rushes for 123 yards against the Wildcats.

Despite the change in scheme, quarterback Will Rogers has been fantastic through two games.

Dawgs take the lead!#HailState🐶 pic.twitter.com/F8qUvVcjbN

— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) September 10, 2023

Rogers has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions this season, posting just a single turnover-worthy play. Receiver Lideatrick "Tulu" Griffin has been the most dangerous weapon on the team with 11 targets and 4.1 yards per route run.

Despite the scheme change, Mississippi State is still a low-risk offense similar to that of the Air Raid era, continuing to rank among the top 30 in Havoc Allowed. However, ranks of 16th in Offensive Quality Drives and 48th in Finishing Drives indicate there have been points left on the table for the Bulldogs offense.

Arnett is in his second season calling the 3-3-5 scheme in Starkville, and the Bulldogs have been excellent in creating chaos by ranking ninth in Havoc, thanks to 14 passes defensed and 12 tackles for loss.

Linebacker Jett Johnson has been clutch, leading the team in tackles and trailing only Nathaniel Watson in creating pressures.

Mississippi State ranks 14th in hard-stop rate, an indicator of defensive domination by causing a turnover, creating a three-and-out or obtaining a fourth-down stop.

Phone With the Action App Open
The must-have app for college football bettors
The best NCAAF betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets

LSU Tigers

The LSU offense and defense have been on different paths through eight quarters this season. The good is wrapped up into an offense that's among the top 20 in Havoc Allowed, Quality Drives and pass explosives.

Jayden Daniels has yet to post a turnover-worthy play and has generated six touchdown passes while dodging 22 pressures.

Brian Thomas Jr. and Kyren Lacy have emerged as dangerous targets behind Malik Nabers. Thomas averages an impressive 3.2 yards per route and has caught three touchdowns in just two games.

Long 75-yard touchdown pass from Jaylen Daniels to Brian Thomas Jr. for #LSU.

Just a little late.


— Lincoln Heimbach (@LincHeimbachTSP) September 4, 2023

The offense has shown plenty of fluidity for coordinator Mike Denbrock, but the challenges come on defense.

Defensive tackle Maason Smith returned to action against Grambling, recording a single pressure and tackle in 35 snaps. Grambling gashed the Tigers on the ground early, a product of the defense starting in the dime package, per head coach Brian Kelly.

Grambling generated seven runs of at least 12 yards for an average of 5.9 yards per play. The LSU defense did catch up after the first few series, but there are plenty of questions after getting dominated by Florida State in the opener.

Mississippi State vs LSU

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Mississippi State match up statistically:

LSU Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Rush Success1353
Line Yards2261
Pass Success6197
Finishing Drives26120
Quality Drives529
Mississippi State Offense vs. LSU Defense
Rush Success7346
Line Yards4183
Pass Success56115
Finishing Drives48110
Quality Drives1695
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling11451
PFF Coverage10714
Special Teams SP+4994
Middle 83333
Seconds per Play23.8 (18)28.4 (87)
Rush Rate51.4% (76)62.9% (9)

Mississippi State vs LSU

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both defenses have significant question marks entering this SEC matchup.

Arizona gained well above the national average in available yards in Starkville, posting two methodical drives and two explosive drives. The Bulldogs allowed Arizona to average six yards per play on standard downs, creating short distances on third- and fourth-down attempts.

Mississippi State ranks 120th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 5.2 points to opponents that cross the 40-yard line. Considering the Bulldogs have produced one of the lowest pressure rates in the FBS, LSU's offensive line will protect Daniels on all throws.

The Bulldogs offense will see similar success against an LSU defense that ranks 110th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

The Tigers have generated pressure from the defensive line, but LSU has allowed a large sum of explosive plays. Coordinator Matt House must build better fundamentals from the defense, which ranks 114th in tackling with a broken-tackle rate that's near dead last in the FBS.

The Action Network projection calls for LSU -8 on the spread with a total of 63. Considering the poor tackling and penchant for giving up explosives, a full-game over bet is in play with consideration to the first half.

Grambling slashed the LSU defense on scripted plays for a score on the first two drives, so a new-look Mississippi State squad should execute at the same level.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.