The LSU Tigers take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford, Mississippi. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ole Miss is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 55 points.
Here’s my LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27, 2025.
LSU vs Ole Miss Prediction
- LSU vs. Ole Miss Pick: Ole Miss -1.5 (Play to -2)
My Ole Miss vs. LSU best bet is on the Rebels to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
LSU vs Ole Miss Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- LSU vs Ole Miss point spread: Ole Miss -1.5
- LSU vs Ole Miss over/under: 55 points
- LSU vs Ole Miss moneyline: LSU +100, Ole Miss -120
LSU vs Ole Miss Preview
LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Defense Has Improved But Offense Inconsistent
LSU is off to a 4-0 start for the first time since that 2019 National Championship team. The Tigers are ranked No. 4 in the nation, although you would hardly realize it based on Brian Kelly’s always grumpy demeanor.
It's not usually the offense that's causing Kelly headaches, but that's been the case this season. Despite a Heisman-caliber quarterback, the Tigers rank just 70th in total offense and 89th in Success Rate.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been pedestrian, with six touchdown passes and two interceptions in four games. The most alarming stat is that Nussmeier has an average depth of target of just 6.9 yards. That ranks 15th in the SEC for the quarterback with one of the strongest arms.
The wide receiver group is made up of Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas, plus tight end Bauer Sharp. This is a talented group that hasn't been able to create separation down field.
I'm not overly concerned about the passing attack, as they have too much talented not to figure it out and improve as the season progresses. I am, however, very worried about this rushing attack.
LSU hasn't had a running back eclipse 800 rushing yards in a season since 2021. Caden Durham is averaging just 53.5 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry on the season. He ranks 40th in the SEC in yards per attempt. That's not going to get it done for a team with playoff aspirations.
The one thing Kelly is happy about is no longer having to answer questions about his defense. Second-year defensive coordinator Blake Baker has this unit playing excellent football, and their improvement has been the main reason for this positive LSU start.
LSU’s defense sits 37th in the country in success rate allowed and is third in the SEC in yards per play allowed (4.2). Linebackers Davhon Keys — plus West and Whit Weeks — have done a great job in the middle of this defense, allowing Harold Perkins to move around and operate out on the outside again.
The secondary has seen a big boost thanks to the additions of Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech) and A.J. Haulcy (Houston) from the transfer portal. Delane has been excellent at cornerback, allowing just a 22.2% completion rate with four passes broken up.
He has the highest Coverage Grade in the SEC at Pro Football Focus.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: High-Powered Offense With Dual-Threat QB
Ole Miss is also off to a 4-0 start and has climbed to No. 13 in the polls. The Rebels' offense is also the subject of many questions, despite ranking 20th in Success Rate and fourth in the SEC.
Those questions are all about the quarterback controversy in Oxford.
It appears as though starting quarterback Austin Simmons has been Wally Pipp’ed. After starting the first two games for the Rebels, an injury sidelined Simmons for the Arkansas and Tulane games, opening the door for Trinidad Chambliss.
The largely unknown Chambliss transferred to Ole Miss from Ferris State after leading it to a Division II National Championship. He got his opportunity against Arkansas and has thrown for over 300 yards in both games with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Chambliss gives this Rebels' offense a higher ceiling due to his rushing ability. He already has 195 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
His dual-threat ability is a big reason Lane Kiffin has named him the starting quarterback against the Tigers. Ole Miss is averaging 43 points per game with Chambliss at quarterback.
Regardless of who's at quarterback, we know Kiffin’s offense is going to put them in a position to succeed and scheme guys open.
The wide receiver room has reloaded with Harrison Wallace III from Penn State and Deuce Alexander from Wake Forest. Daq’Quan Wright is also a weapon at tight end for the Rebels.
Everybody always thinks of Ole Miss as a high-flying passing attack, but this has been — and remains — a run-first offense. The Rebels are third in the SEC in rushing rate and are averaging 218.5 yards per game on the ground.
Sophomore Kewan Lacy leads the conference with 79 carries and is second in the country with seven rushing scores on the year. Lacy — plus Chambliss’ rushing ability — give the Rebels one of the most dangerous rushing attacks in the SEC.
Defensively, the Rebels have taken a step back with all the talent they lost from last year. Just two starters returned for the Ole Miss defense, linebackers Suntarine Perkins and TJ Dottery.
The pass defense has been excellent thanks to a deep secondary and edge rushers Kam Franklin and Princewill Umanmielen putting pressure on the quarterbacks. However, Taylen Green is the only above average quarterback the Rebels have faced, and Arkansas put up over 300 yards passing.
The run defense has been a major problem, though. Ole Miss is allowing 5.1 yards per carry and 190.5 yards per game on the ground — both rank worst in the SEC.
The tackling has been a nightmare, and the Rebels are allowing way too many chunk runs.
LSU vs Ole Miss Pick, Betting Analysis
This is going to be a strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness matchup in Oxford between two top-15 teams.
LSU has taken a major step forward on defense and Baker has his unit as the strength of this Tigers' team right now. However, the offenses they've faced look worse and worse with each week.
Saturday will definitely be the most challenging test for this defense. Ole Miss ranks top-25 in the country in Success Rate in the air and on the ground. The Rebels are averaging 43 points per game with Chambliss at quarterback and his dual-threat ability takes this offense to a whole new level.
On the other side of the ball, I have major questions about this Ole Miss defense. They've been absolutely torched on the ground this season and are allowing too many big plays. The question is, can this LSU offense exploit the Rebels’ weaknesses?
The Tigers rank 94th in the country in explosiveness. This offense hasn't been pushing the ball down the field, with just 11.7% of Nussmeier’s passes traveling more than 20 yards.
The biggest weakness for the Ole Miss defense is its run defense, but LSU can't run the ball at all. The Tigers rank 119th in the country in Rushing Rate and 121st in Rush Success Rate.
So, the question is, will LSU’s weakness be able to exploit the Ole Miss weakness? Or can Ole Miss’ strength beat the LSU strength?
I feel stronger about the second option. As concerned as I am about the Rebels' defense, I am less confident that LSU can take advantage of it as I am that Ole Miss will be able to beat this Tigers defense.
Chambliss rushing ability alongside Lacy makes this backfield incredibly dangerous. They'll be able to have success on the ground against the LSU defense that while vastly improved, still ranks just 73rd in the country in rush success rate allowed.
The Rebels have a deep and talented wide receiver room that can make big plays down the field. Ole Miss will be able to spread this defense out in a way Clemson and Florida couldn't. Kiffin is able to scheme guys open against any defense.
Lane already told us to take the over as he looks to run the score up on his daughter’s new boyfriend Whit Weeks and this LSU defense.
Take Ole Miss to cover the spread and win the game as well.
Pick: Ole Miss -1.5 (Play to -2)
