The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes host the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in 1 of 2 college football games on Sunday, Aug. 31.
This marks the 3rd top-10 game of the weekend, and if the spread of 2.5 is any indication, it should be one of the best games of Week 1.
Notre Dame enters as the favorite of -2.5 (-140 on the moneyline), while Miami comes in at +2.5 (+120 on the moneyline). The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 50.5.
Let's take a look at our Miami vs. Notre Dame picks and college football odds for this top-10 clash on Sunday, August 31.
Miami vs. Notre Dame Picks, Best Bets
Catholics vs. Convicts. A rivalry matchup with a ton of history has another chapter to write on Labor Day weekend.
Notre Dame heads down to Miami to take on the Hurricanes in a game that will likely have major College Football Playoff implications down the road.
Both of these teams have high expectations entering the season.
For the Irish, it’s the opportunity to build off of last season’s run to the National Championship game, with the goal of lifting the trophy this time around.
For Miami, there’s a bitter taste in the team’s mouth after a late loss to Syracuse cost it an ACC Championship game appearance, as well as a trip to the playoff.
Redshirt freshman CJ Carr will replace Riley Leonard as the Irish quarterback, and Carson Beck comes over from Georgia to fill the void left by Cam Ward.
We polled our CFB staff and asked them to weigh in with their thoughts on how this game will play out from both a side and over/under perspective. The results are below.
Miami vs. Notre Dame Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Notre Dame -2.5
As a group, there's a lean toward the Irish in this one to win and cover as a short road favorite.
A large reason for that is due to the coaching mismatch in this contest. Mario Cristobal has historically come up short in big games, oftentimes due to some puzzling in-game decisions with clock and fourth-down strategy.
Meanwhile, Marcus Freeman has done a good job of getting the Irish ready for these types of heavyweight bouts in his young head coaching career.
Just last year, Notre Dame toppled Texas A&M at at Kyle Field in opening week, and then took out Georgia and Penn State on neutral fields in the playoff.
Beyond the head coaching clash, Notre Dame has more reliable personnel in a lot of key areas.
The Irish bring back core defensive players from an elite unit a year ago, including defensive back Leonard Moore, linebackers Drayk Bowen and Jaylen Sneed and edge rusher Bryce Young.
That will make it difficult for Beck and company to move the ball down the field, especially when you consider the fact that this will be the first game for a brand new Hurricane offensive core.
On the other side of the ball, CJ Carr will be making his first career start in a hostile environment. But when you have a Heisman Trophy candidate in Jeremiyah Love to hand the ball to, it makes that job a little bit easier to navigate.
We’ll roll with the Irish to get it done in a game that could have some nasty weather.
Miami vs. Notre Dame Over/Under Pick
Over 50.5 | 1 Pick |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 50.5 | 6 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 50.5
Sunday’s highly anticipated Week 1 matchup between Notre Dame and Miami is set with an over/under of 50.5 points. The consensus from our Action Analytics team leans heavily toward a low-scoring game, with a bulk of votes on the under.
Here’s another factor: Notre Dame-Miami is one of PRO Projections' best bets of the entire Week 1 slate, as our models spit out a completely different number than what’s available to bet in general markets.
It could be the toughest spots for both offenses all season long.
It’s Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr’s first start, on the road, which likely means a lot of Jeremiyah Love out of the backfield and clock control. Given Carr’s inexperience and a heavy dose of the run game, the Irish offense may operate at a slower pace.
Adding to that, Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium is an underrated stadium for crowd noise, which could set the Fighting Irish back with any pre-snap penalties.
Meanwhile, Carson Beck steps into the starting quarterback role at Miami.
While he brings valuable SEC experience from Georgia and Miami’s offense under coordinator Shannon Dawson is expected to be effective, matching Ward’s production is a steep task. The Canes often found themselves in barn burners, and Ward could counter at virtually any point last season.
Factoring in this year’s personnel and Sunday’s game script, points will be more at a premium.
Defensively, Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman is regarded as one of the best defensive minds in college football, further tipping the scales toward a low-scoring battle.
With Week 1 jitters, potential rust and other factors, Hurricanes-Fighting Irish looks primed to stay under the total.
Miami vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
