Stuckey’s Arizona State vs. Michigan State Betting Odds & Preview: Will Spartans Roll in Revenge Spot?
Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michigan State defensive tackle Raequan Williams
Arizona State vs. Michigan State Betting Odds & Pick
- Odds: Michigan State -14
- Over/Under: 42
- Date: Saturday, Sep. 14
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Location: East Lansing, Mich.
>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get live win probabilities on your bets.
Last season, Michigan State got off on the wrong foot in a trip to Tempe in Week 1 when the Sun Devils pulled off a 16-13 upset.
I think this game could once again go under, but with a much different result. This sets up as a potential Sparty party at home for Michigan State.
Both teams come in at 2-0 on the season but Arizona State hasn’t looked pretty, especially on offense.
After losing quarterback Manny Wilkins and receiver N’Keal Harry (first-round draft pick), ASU expected to lean heavily on star running back Eno Benjamin this season.
A year after setting the school record with 1,642 rushing yards, Benjamin came back as one of the best returning backs in the nation. He was supposed to have the luxury of running behind an experienced offensive line comprised of five seniors.
Offensive Line Woes
However, the offensive line play has not gone according to plan, as the Sun Devils now have two freshman starters and only one OL playing the position he played last season.
So, what happened?
Well, projected starting LT Zach Robertson has missed time due to personal reasons, which forced Arizona State to move star center Cohl Cabral out to tackle. Cabral’s replacement at center, Cade Cote, then broke his foot.
They’ve had to move a number of pieces around to make due, including senior Steve Miller (who also got banged up against Sacramento State) from guard to right tackle.
The results have been bleak.
After playing two home games against significantly inferior teams in Kent State and Sacramento State, Benjamin is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. He averaged 5.5 yards per rush in 2018.
Both opponents lived in the backfield, which is a worrisome sign ahead of a trip to East Lansing to take on one of the best defenses in the country.
Rush Defense Devils
Michigan State allowed a ridiculous 2.6 yards per carry last year, finishing only 0.1 yards behind national champion Clemson for tops in the nation.
After returning a ton of production on defense, Sparty has picked up right where it left off. Two games into the 2019 season, Michigan State leads the nation with an almost unbelievable -0.1 yards per carry. You read that right; it has allowed -6 total yards on the ground through two games.
I just can’t envision Arizona State getting anything going on the ground. If it couldn’t run it against Sacramento State, good luck against the best run defense in the NCAA.
That will leave it up to true freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels getting it done through the air. And that’s if his makeshift offensive line can give him time in the pocket. This has disaster written all over it against a Michigan State defense that should have its ears pinned back.
Bets to Watch
Michigan State -14, Under 42.5
Michigan State should get its revenge in dominating fashion this weekend.
I can’t see Arizona State moving the ball at all but head coach Herm Edwards will still most likely try to establish the run on the road. That will at least keep the clock moving.
When the Sun Devils have to punt, which I anticipate them doing plenty, they’ll at least have Michael Turk, who’s been the best punter in college football so far this season. ASU currently leads the nation with a ridiculous average of 52.8 net yards per punt. The nephew of former NFL punter Matt Turk can absolutely boom the ball, which will certainly help the under.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan State should have more success than it did last year in Tempe. Not only did it see Arizona State’s rare 3-3-5 defense last season, it also saw it against Tulsa in this year’s season opener.
The Arizona State defense is its strength and the scheme will force Michigan State to run the ball, which will again help the under. Sparty hasn’t excelled on the ground in recent years but should be improved in that department with Elijah Collins. The redshirt freshman, recently named the starter by Mark Dantonio, brings much more explosive to the backfield.
Without flukes, this looks like an easy Spartan win that could finish around 31-7.