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Middle Tennessee vs. UTSA Odds, Sharp Betting Pick: Late Pro Action Moves Spread

Middle Tennessee vs. UTSA Odds, Sharp Betting Pick: Late Pro Action Moves Spread article feature image

Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Asher O’Hara

Middle Tennessee vs. UTSA Odds

Middle Tennessee Odds +6
UTSA Odds -6
Over/Under 59
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network

Check out our new College Football PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

Much like last night’s lone college football matchup, tonight’s unaccompanied matchup entered the day with a spread of 6.5 points — just under the all-important touchdown line.

And also like last night’s matchup, this game has seen some late line movement by drawing in some action from sharp bettors.

But unlike last night’s matchup, that late line move has hasn’t resulted in this line hitting the 7-point mark. Let’s examine it using our new PRO Report feature.

Middle Tennessee vs. UTSA PRO Report

For much of the week, this line had been seeing some back-and-forth movement. Essentially, UTSA, as the popular side (74% of bets), would reach -7, and then sharps would buy the number back, which is part of why it came into gameday at -6.5.

Just after 4 p.m. ET, the line saw another move off the 6.5-point spread. This time, though, it came in the other direction, resulting in several books moving down to -6.

The reason? Big bets from sharps.

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Sharp Action

There was never too much question over which side sharps preferred here, but much of that action came early in the week when the line would reach +7 or even +7.5.

This afternoon’s wave of pro action, however, made things a lot more clear.

Evidenced by a Sports Insights Bet Signal triggered at +6.5, it’s now determined that Middle Tennessee doesn’t even need a full touchdown’s worth of points to attract sharp bettors.

Sharp Action edge: Middle Tennessee

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Big Money

Part of the reason we could tell that sharps were leaning this way throughout the week is the discrepancy between bets and actual money landing on MTSU.

While the Blue Raiders have attracted just 26% backing, that has generated an impressive 69% of actual money.

And while big bets can technically come from anyone, they’re far more likely to come from sharps over a large sample, so a significant discrepancy — such as this one — can certainly be used as a hint toward the pro side.

Big Money edge: Middle Tennessee

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