The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, Minn. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Minnesota is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -112. Mississippi State, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is -108 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my Mississippi State vs. Minnesota prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12.
Mississippi State vs Minnesota Prediction
- Mississippi State vs. Minnesota Pick: Mississippi State +1.5 (-115)
My Minnesota vs. Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Mississippi State vs Minnesota Odds
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -108 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -112 |
- Mississippi State vs Minnesota point spread: Mississippi State +1.5 (-118), Minnesota -1.5 (-102)
- Mississippi State vs Minnesota over/under: 55.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Mississippi State vs Minnesota moneyline: Mississippi State -108, Minnesota -112
Mississippi State vs Minnesota College Football Preview
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: On Kamario Taylor's Back
It has been an uphill climb in recent years at Mississippi State, but the team showed solid improvement in its second season under Jeff Lebby, jumping from two wins to five.
The Bulldogs brought back former head coach and defensive coordinator Zach Arnett to shore up defense, and their offense looks like it could be very good.
In the season opener against ULM, Mississippi State blew out the Warhawks, 62-13. The story coming out was all about star quarterback Kamario Taylor.
A former four-star recruit and top-10 quarterback prospect, Taylor was a huge get for the Bulldogs and is finally getting his chance to be the guy.
Taylor played a little bit as the backup last season but shined in his breakout game as QB1. Taylor finished the opener 22-of-34 with 354 yards and four touchdown passes. He also added 59 yards and a score rushing the ball.
Taylor has an absolute cannon for an arm, and in one game, he has gained national attention as potentially one of the most dangerous dual-threat weapons in the country.
A pair of returning weapons on offense are back to support Taylor. Wide receiver Anthony Evans III was second on the team in receiving last year and appears ready to step up, going for 118 yards and a score on seven catches last week.
Lead running back Fluff Bothwell is also back to provide experience in the Bulldogs' backfield. They also have a lot of depth at the running back position this year, as freshman J.J. Hill looked really good in the opener.
Defensively, I mentioned the Bulldogs bringing back Arnett to help improve a unit that really struggled last season. Mississippi State also brings back four starters on that side of the ball and six of its top-12 leading tacklers, but it will need to be a lot better.
With Arnett’s 3-3-5 defensive scheme, the secondary is expected to be this team’s strength.
They're led by cornerback Kelley Jones and safety Isaac Smith, both returning on the back end to provide stability. Jones was named to the preseason All-SEC second team.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Pass Defense Concerns
The Golden Gophers kicked off their 10th season under head coach P.J. Fleck with a stress-free 59-7 win over FCS Eastern Illinois.
Last season was much the same for Minnesota, as it reached a bowl game for the seventh straight full season under Fleck. It seems like you can just pencil the Gophers in for a 7-5 season and a bowl victory.
Quarterback Drake Lindsey returns for a second full season and has already played himself onto some NFL radars after throwing for 2,300 yards and 18 touchdowns last season.
Minnesota didn’t ask Lindsey to do as much as it probably should have last season, but it needs him to be a guy if it's going to take a step forward.
Running back Darius Taylor also returns after a somewhat disappointing 2025. He went for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024 but took a big step backward last season, finishing with just 670 yards and four scores as he played through nagging injuries.
Minnesota is typically known for its running game but was just 105th in Rushing Success Rate last season. Taylor rushed for three touchdowns in the season opener, but 56 yards on 14 carries is not the kind of efficiency you want against an FCS opponent.
Defensively, the Gophers were strong in their first season under new defensive coordinator Danny Collins. Minnesota was especially strong against the run and should once again be strong up front.
Linebacker Maverick Baranowski is back after leading the team with 103 tackles last season to anchor the middle of the field.
Star defensive end Anthony Smith also returns to Minnesota after leading the Big Ten with 12.5 sacks last season. Cal transfer TJ Bush Jr. will join him on the other edge to create a strong pass rush for the Gophers.
This unit's weakness was the pass defense, and that group took a big blow when star safety Koi Perich transferred to Oregon. Returning starter Kerry Brown will attempt to fill that void, but I have questions about this secondary.
Mississippi State vs Minnesota Pick, Betting Analysis
Obviously, the game in Austin is getting most of the headlines and attention, but don't sleep on this one. Mississippi State vs. Minnesota will also feature a fantastic quarterback matchup between two guys who could be playing on Sundays in a few years.
Lindsey is listed at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds for Minnesota and Taylor at 6-foot-4, 230 pounds for Mississippi State. Both have rocket arms and have the look that NFL scouts will be drooling over.
Neither had much of a test in Week 1, but regardless of who they were playing, it was impossible not to come away wildly impressed with Taylor: 354 yards passing, 59 yards rushing and five total touchdowns is fantastic against anybody.
He looked in sync with his receivers early, especially Evans, and the Bulldogs were hitting explosives all over the field last week. Bothwell wasn't overly productive at running back last season, but they improved their depth at the position.
Hill also looked electric in his debut, going for 118 yards and two scores on just seven carries, including a 57-yard house call.
Lindsey has plenty of talent for the Gophers, but he needs to take a big step forward. He's a smooth passer and shows poise going through progressions, but he lacks mobility and can be inconsistent. He hasn't proven himself to be a real difference-maker who can elevate his game when needed most.
Minnesota finished just 102nd in Success Rate last season and was 125th in Explosiveness. I still have concerns about Taylor and this running game.
We thought nagging injuries were the explanation for the dip in production last season, but Taylor managed just 56 yards on 14 carries in the season opener.
He did score three touchdowns, but I would expect more than 4.0 yards per carry against an FCS defense for a back of his caliber.
I just have a lot more questions about this Golden Gophers offense. I know it was just one game, but after what I saw from Taylor and company last week, I have more trust in the Bulldogs right now.
Mississippi State should show quick improvement on defense with Arnett back at the helm. I like the Minnesota pass rush, but Taylor’s legs should help neutralize that. If the pass rush can't get home, the Gophers' secondary has a lot of questions that Taylor should be able to take advantage of.
We know Fleck and the Gophers are great in bowl games, but they have struggled in these early-season nonconference games against Power 4 teams, losing their first real test in three straight years.
This should be a great matchup and a fantastic test to see if Taylor is for real, but I’m willing to bet on the upside and potential and ride with the Bulldogs.
Pick: Mississippi State +1.5 (-115 · bet365)
