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The Missouri Tigers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on Saturday, Oct. 31. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Missouri is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -375. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri vs. Arkansas prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 31.
Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction
- Missouri vs. Arkansas Pick: Arkansas +10 or Better
My Arkansas vs. Missouri best bet is on the Razorbacks to cover as double-digit dogs at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri vs Arkansas Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -108 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | -380 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -112 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | +300 |
- Missouri vs Arkansas point spread: Missouri -10 (-108), Arkansas +10 (-112)
- Missouri vs Arkansas over/under: 49.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Missouri vs Arkansas moneyline: Missouri -380, Arkansas +300
Missouri vs Arkansas College Football Preview
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview: Inconsistent Offense
Missouri heads to Fayetteville at 5-2 following a bye week, and while head coach Eli Drinkwitz has the Tigers ranked inside the top 25, I'm having a difficult time laying double digits on the road with an offense that has struggled to consistently finish drives.
Missouri is averaging 31.1 points per game and 430.3 yards per game, but those traditional numbers are considerably more impressive than its opponent-adjusted efficiency profile.
The Tigers rank 61st nationally in EPA/Play, while generating just a 40.2% Offensive Success Rate, ranking 93rd.
The rushing numbers are particularly concerning. I know Ahmad Hardy has been absent from the lineup, but some of the underlying metrics are worrisome.
Missouri ranks 111th in EPA/Rush and 118th in Line Yards, with running back Jamal Roberts generating a 34.6% Rushing Success Rate despite averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
That's an important distinction because Roberts has produced 867 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, but the Tigers haven't consistently generated successful plays on early downs.
The overall rushing numbers are inflated, given the lack of a strong Rushing Success Rate.
Quarterback Austin Simmons has been considerably more effective through the air, throwing for 1,773 yards and 14 touchdowns, while wide receiver Cayden Lee has recorded 678 receiving yards.
I'm still skeptical about Simmons, as I believe he has been playing with fire most of the season.
Missouri is generating +0.19 EPA/Pass, ranking 35th nationally, but the Tigers' inability to establish the ground game has created problems in scoring territory.
Mizzou ranks 107th in Finishing Drives at just 3.70 Points Per Scoring Opportunity and 129th in red-zone touchdown rate at 48%.
That's a brutal combination when asking a team to cover double digits on the road.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview: These Pigs Can Fly
Arkansas is 3-4 and certainly hasn't lived up to expectations, but I'm willing to buy low on the Razorbacks against a Missouri team whose offensive efficiency doesn't justify laying this type of number.
Believe it or not, the Hogs are playing a lot better than their record suggests in recent weeks.
Quarterback KJ Jackson has thrown for 1,444 yards and seven touchdowns while adding three rushing scores, and although Arkansas hasn't consistently protected him, the Razorbacks have demonstrated the ability to create explosive plays when the offense stays ahead of the chains.
Wide receiver Chris Marshall has been the primary downfield weapon, recording 633 receiving yards, although his availability is worth monitoring after a leg injury. The more interesting matchup is on the defensive side of the ball.
Arkansas is allowing +0.10 EPA/Play, ranking 89th nationally, but the Razorbacks have been considerably better in high-leverage passing situations.
Arkansas ranks 16th nationally in passing downs Success Rate allowed at 28.1%, which creates an interesting matchup against a Missouri offense that ranks 79th in passing downs Success Rate.
That's particularly important because the Tigers have struggled to establish consistent rushing efficiency, and Simmons is always prone to make a mistake through the air.
This is also a big-time game, and I would argue this is Arkansas’ Super Bowl, which means we should get a full effort.
If Arkansas can force Simmons into obvious passing situations, the Razorbacks should have opportunities to get off the field without necessarily needing to dominate the entire game defensively.
Arkansas is also allowing Havoc on just 17.6% of its offensive snaps, while Missouri's defense is generating Havoc on 19.5%.
That matchup isn't particularly favorable for the Razorbacks, but it's manageable if Jackson can avoid the negative plays that have plagued the offense at times this season. They just need their secondary to contain the Tigers’ passing attack and control the ball on offense.
This screams like a spot where the Hogs can ugly this up.
Missouri vs Arkansas Pick, Betting Analysis
This number opened Missouri -9.5 before moving toward -10, and I'm willing to grab double digits with Arkansas.
The biggest reason is Missouri's inability to consistently finish drives. The Tigers rank 107th in Points Per Opportunity and 129th in red-zone touchdown rate, converting just 48% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.
That's not the type of offensive profile I want when laying double digits on the road. Missouri's rushing efficiency is another concern.
The Tigers rank 111th in EPA/Rush and 118th in Line Yards, while Arkansas has been considerably better on passing downs than its overall defensive numbers suggest.
If the Razorbacks can force Simmons into obvious passing situations and make Missouri settle for field goals, the Tigers could struggle to create the margin necessary to cover. There's also a reasonable situational angle.
Missouri is coming off a bye following a disappointing loss to Ole Miss, while Arkansas returns home with an opportunity to secure a statement SEC victory.
I'm not particularly interested in pretending motivation alone is worth points, but I do think the Razorbacks are being undervalued because of their 3-4 record.
Missouri is the better team, but its offensive inconsistencies leave the door open for Arkansas to hang around. Again, this is essentially Arkansas’ Super Bowl, and I expect a strong effort from the Hogs at home.
This spread should not be double digits.
Pick: Arkansas +10 or Better
