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The SMU Mustangs take on the Syracuse Orange in Syracuse, N.Y. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN2.
SMU is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. The total is set at 58.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Syracuse prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 31, 2026.
SMU vs Syracuse Prediction
- SMU vs. Syracuse Pick: SMU Team Total Over 34.5 (-112)
My Syracuse vs. SMU best bet is on the Mustangs to go over their team total in this game. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
SMU vs Syracuse Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -105 | 58.5 -108o / -110u | -350 |
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -112 | 58.5 -108o / -110u | +280 |
- SMU vs Syracuse point spread: SMU -10 (-105), Syracuse +10 (-112)
- SMU vs Syracuse over/under: 58.5 (-108o / -110u)
- SMU vs Syracuse moneyline: SMU -350, Syracuse +280
SMU vs Syracuse College Football Preview
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview: Suddenly a Contender
Heading into the year, the ACC title was expected to be a one-horse race, with the rest of the field trailing Miami. While the Hurricanes have been able to take sole possession of first, SMU has been nipping at their heels, tied with Wake Forest for second in the conference standings.
Kevin Jennings' resurgence under center has helped turn the Mustangs into a contender for the conference title, throwing for nearly 300 yards per game while completing 72.6% of his passes. Jennings cutting down on turnovers after a shaky start has also made it easier for SMU to keep drives alive, leading an offense that ranks 23rd in Havoc Allowed.
When Kendrick Raphael gets his number called, the Mustangs' running back has kept the offense ahead of the sticks, posting a 46.3% success rate and averaging 5.3 yards per carry. With both facets of the offense playing at a high level, opposing defenses have been unable to keep them out of scoring position, giving up 4.13 Points per Opportunity.
Speaking of Points per Opportunity, the Mustangs have struggled to find their footing on defense, entering Week 9 ranked 83rd in Finishing Drives and 108th in Explosiveness.
While the defense has fared far better in the middle of the field, with a top-35 Def Success Rate, SMU’s secondary has been vulnerable to getting beaten over the top by an explosive play, flipping field position in the opponent's favor.
Syracuse Orange Betting Preview: Abysmal Defense and Lots of Injuries
While SMU has kept its hat in the ring for the ACC title, Syracuse hasn't had the same success, plummeting to the bottom of the standings with a 1-4 conference record.
A slew of injuries has made it nearly impossible for the Orange to compete, digging them too deep into a hole to climb out of.
Luckily for the Orange, Steve Angeli sparked the offense in his first game back from injury, leading Syracuse to a 31-30 overtime win over North Carolina. While he did struggle to connect with his pass catchers, Angeli still stretched the field, throwing for 256 yards and two touchdowns.
Angeli’s reliance on explosive plays mirrored how the Orange have performed on offense this season, ranking 10th in Pass Play Explosiveness and 90th in Pass Play Success Rate. This unsustainable style of play leaves the Orange prone to stalling out when the offense can't chip away at the distance to gain on early downs.
To make matters worse for Syracuse, the defense has been abysmal, limping into Saturday ranked outside the top-75 in Def Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and Explosiveness.
With the defense struggling to play at a competitive level, the Orange will continue to play in highly volatile track meets while lacking the offensive consistency needed to keep pace on the scoreboard.
SMU vs Syracuse Pick, Betting Analysis
When markets first opened for this weekend’s slate, one of the first bets I placed in the app was on SMU -8.5. Unfortunately, that number is long gone, pounded up to -10.5. With the spread crossing through the key mark of -10, my attention turned elsewhere, landing on the Mustangs team total.
With Jennings cutting down on his Turnover Worthy Plays, the SMU quarterback has methodically moved the ball downfield, leading to an uptick in scoring opportunities. Jennings' success under center also opens up the middle for Raphael to exploit, making it hard for opposing front sevens to slow him before he reaches the second level.
While the Orange back end has been able to defend against the pass, the front seven has been routinely gashed on the ground, ranking 94th in Def Rush Success Rate, 96th in PPA, and 118th in Explosiveness. With Raphael pulling defensive attention to the box, Jennings passing lanes on the outside will widen, reducing the amount of Havoc in his throws.
At 34.5, place a wager on SMU to clear the over on their team total with a stop point at 35. If the spread ticks back down to a flat -10 before kickoff, place a separate wager on SMU to cover the number as well.
Pick: SMU Team Total Over 34.5 (-112, BetMGM)
