The Missouri Tigers take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, Tennessee. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Vanderbilt is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Missouri, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri vs. Vanderbilt prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
Missouri Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Picks
- Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Pick: Missouri +2.5
My Vanderbilt vs. Missouri best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri vs Vanderbilt Odds, Lines, Spread
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
- Missouri vs Vanderbilt Spread: Vanderbilt -3, Missouri +3
- Missouri vs Vanderbilt Over/Under: 52.5 Total Points
- Missouri vs Vanderbilt Moneyline: Missouri ML +130, Vanderbilt ML -155
Missouri vs Vanderbilt NCAAF Preview
Missouri Tigers
Missouri will hit the road for a second consecutive week after two physical affairs against Alabama and Auburn.
The Tigers have remained healthy throughout the SEC schedule, maintaining an offensive line that's top-20 in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.
Tackles Cayden Green and Keagen Trost have been essential to the potent ground attack that features one of the best running backs in the nation in ULM transfer Ahmad Hardy.
Outside zone has been the go-to run concept for Missouri, producing a 58% Success Rate and an explosive on one of every five attempts.
Hardy remains one of the more elusive ball-carriers in the nation, averaging 4.8 yards after first contact.
Those numbers must continue for Missouri to be successful in staying ahead of the chains, as quarterback Beau Pribula has failed to find explosives, ranking outside the top 10o of all passing offenses.
Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon has fielded one of his best squads throughout his career, as Missouri ranks sixth nationally in Defensive Havoc.
The Tigers find themselves in the top 20 nationally in a number of analytics, from opponent quality drives to tackle grading. The 4-2-5 defense has been excellent against man run concepts, producing a negative EPA on opponent attempts.
The Tigers also field one of the best pass-rushing fronts in FBS, as Damon Wilson II and Zion Young have combined for 56 pressures from the edge.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt is riding high after a victory over LSU at home, staking its claim as a true contender for the SEC Championship.
Quarterback Diego Pavia leads one of the most efficient offenses in college football, integrating a heavy dose of ground attack with multiple run concepts.
The Commodores have run at least 30 rushing attempts of zone read, counter, pull lead, man and power run concepts with Pavia and running back Sedrick Alexander.
When Vanderbilt isn't running the ball, Pavia has a platform to contend for the Heisman Trophy.
Vandy shifted defensive play-calling responsibilities from head coach Clark Lea to defensive coordinator Steve Gregory, but it has seen a dip in the numbers.
Vanderbilt sits outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed.
The Commodores rank 70th or worse in allowing opponent quality drives and converting scoring opportunities. The 3-3-5 personnel has been excellent in producing Havoc thanks to a top-20 number in tackles for loss and forced fumbles.
Missouri vs Vanderbilt NCAAF Pick to Bet
This heavyweight matchup of former SEC East members can be considered a College Football Playoff elimination game.
Missouri will have advantages with Hardy in outside zone usage, as Vanderbilt has been tepid against the run concept.
The Commodores have been most vulnerable against the pass, an area in which the Tigers may have an advantage. Pribula leads an offense that ranks second nationally in passing downs Success Rate, ranking sixth in third-down conversions.
The biggest handicap in this game is the ability to stop Pavia in scripted ground attacks and improvised passing downs. Batoon's 2024 defense struggled to contain Pavia on the ground but hammered the quarterback in passing downs.
There's an argument that this Missouri defense is better suited for Vanderbilt's ground game, as the Tigers are excellent against man run concepts. Counter has been the explosive concept for Vanderbilt, but Missouri allows an explosive on just one of 10 attempts.
With a PFF tackling grade of 19th, don't expect Pavia and Alexander to gain many yards after first contact.
Action Network's betting power ratings make this game a pick'em, giving value to Missouri in the market.
Considering Vanderbilt's struggles in defensive passing downs, the Tigers' ability to stop Vandy's most-used rush concepts will be the difference in this game.
Pick: Missouri +2.5 or Better
Missouri vs Vanderbilt Trend to Know
