College Football Playoff National Championship Betting Odds: Sharp Action Moving Lines In Ohio State vs. Alabama

College Football Playoff National Championship Betting Odds: Sharp Action Moving Lines In Ohio State vs. Alabama article feature image
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Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Mac Jones

  • Sharp bettors don't always hit the most biggest college football games, but with only one game left in the season, that's exactly what they did.
  • After the National Championship lined opened at Alabama -7, sharp bettors hammered the Crimson Tide to move the line to as much as Alabama -9 at some books.
  • Danny Donahue breaks down what this means for betting the National Championship below.

Ohio State vs. Alabama Odds

Ohio State Odds +9
Alabama Odds -9
Over/Under 75
PRO Projection BAMA -5 | O/U: 75
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
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For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, a national championship game spread will (probably) close greater than a full touchdown.

Alabama is a 9-point favorite across much of the market as of Monday morning, which is significant given that it means Ohio State would cover even in the case of a loss by a touchdown.

But Bama wasn’t always quite that big a favorite. Opening numbers came in closer to the key number, with most books releasing a 7-point spread, and some of the earliest to market even breaking in at -6.5.

Those didn’t last very long, though, thanks in part to the action from sharp bettors.


Ohio State vs. Alabama Sharp Action

As of Monday morning, the distribution across the betting public has been fairly even, with Alabama holding just a 53% to 47% edge in terms of spread tickets. All else equal, that would give no reason for a line move, but obviously that’s not been the case.

Instead, the 53% of bets on Alabama have generated 68% of the actual money hitting this spread.

Of course that puts a monetary liability on the favorite for which sportsbooks need to account, but perhaps more importantly, the discrepancy between bets and dollars reveals Bama to be receiving the bigger wagers — the ones more likely to come from sharps.

Confirming that indication, three Bet Signals from Action Labs — indicators of market-wide line moves caused specifically by sharp action — have been triggered on Alabama (at -7.5 and -8.5). And as of this morning, no such signals have reported professional action going the other way.

Unlock all the sharp action in the NFL Playoffs!

All the professional sides and totals

Our model’s projections for every game

Profitable data-driven system picks
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