The North Carolina State Wolfpack take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, North Carolina. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Duke is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 58 points.
Here’s my NC State vs. Duke prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
NC State vs Duke Prediction
- NC State vs. Duke Pick: Duke -3 or Better
My Duke vs. NC State best bet is on the Blue Devils to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
NC State vs Duke Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 58 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 58 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- NC State vs Duke point spread: Duke -3
- NC State vs Duke over/under: 58 points
- NC State vs Duke moneyline: NC State +145, Duke -170
NC State vs Duke Preview
It's time to buy the dip on Duke following two losses against Illinois and Tulane. If the Blue Devils want even to sniff some of their high preseason expectations, they absolutely need this game.
Well, I believe they will at least get back on track against an NC State team that has raced out to a 3-0 start, but has looked shaky at times in all three close victories against East Carolina, Wake Forest, and Virginia.
I've liked some of the things I've seen from the Wolfpack offense. Still, the defense has taken a major step back after the talent drain in the offseason, in addition to the loss of highly respected defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who left to take the Marshall head coach position.
It's also worth noting the Wolfpack will have to make do without stud defensive end Sabastian Harsh in the first half due to a targeting suspension. That's a big loss.
Duke has had a more challenging schedule and has been the unluckier team in terms of turnovers, fourth-down variance, and other areas. The Blue Devils finished with a -5 turnover margin against Illinois and even had three failed field goal attempts (one blocked and one failed snap) in a seven-point loss at Tulane.
The Blue Devils do not have the same coverage chops as last year, as they haven't found adequate replacements for cornerback Josh Pickett (now with the Broncos) and future NFL safety Terry Moore (currently injured). Still, they should at least slow down running back Hollywood Smothers, the engine of NC State's offense.
I'm buying low on a desperate Duke effort that may have some overdue regression headed its way.
I project Duke as four-point favorites, and it's worth mentioning that NC State hasn't won in Durham since 2008.
Pick: Duke -3 or Better
