The Week 5 college football slate continues, and I have four NCAAF picks and predictions for the night slate, including three 'dogs to back, with one being a moneyline play.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 15-10 (60.0%)
- Overall: 184-133-2 (58.0%)
Week 5 NCAAF Picks for Night Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | Florida Atlantic +14 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Penn State -3 |
  | 8 p.m. | Louisiana ML +100 |
  | 10:15 p.m. | Colorado +7 |
Florida Atlantic +14 vs. Memphis
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
We may have arrived at the peak of the market on Memphis after its fairly fortunate win over an Arkansas team it caught in an extremely favorable situational spot (yet still trailed 28-10 at one point).
Memphis' other three victories came over Chattanooga, Georgia State and a Troy team that lost its starting quarterback to an injury early in the game.
And while the Tigers found themselves in an emotional (and physically demanding) battle with Arkansas last week, FAU enjoyed a bye week, which could prove extra beneficial for a completely brand new team under a new regime that implemented new schemes.
The offense, in particular, needed to work on getting the timing down.
So far, the quarterback and receivers have not been on the same page over the first weeks, which has led to a whopping nine interceptions (and subsequently a -8 turnover margin) against the two FBS opponents the snake-bit Owls have faced.
I expect Caden Veltkamp and that side of the ball to look much sharper on Saturday in FAU's pass-heavy Air Raid offense.
If that's the case, they should score enough to stay within two touchdowns against a Memphis defense that's much more vulnerable against the pass.
Notable Nugget
Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield is just 8-16 ATS (33.3%) as a conference favorite.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +14 or Better
Penn State -3 vs. Oregon
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
Yes, I'm really trusting "Small Game James" in a big game. What could possibly go wrong?
While Franklin has turtled up many times in these high-profile games (which could be problematic against the very aggressive Dan Lanning), I do love this spot for the Nittany Lions, who have essentially been preparing for this matchup since spring.
They have essentially shown nothing against three cupcakes and even have had a bye week to prepare for this top-10 showdown. That's especially critical for arguably the top coordinator duo in all of college football.
Expect plenty of wrinkles (and Drew Allar-designed runs) that Oregon will not have seen on tape this year.
Yes, Oregon has looked like the much better team and likely will have shot up most power ratings due to dominant results, but this was essentially a new team with a brand-new quarterback, so it made a ton of sense for it to get the offense rolling and demolish the nobodies of the world.
So far, the Ducks have beaten Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State and Montana State. Color me less than impressed with a team everyone was seemingly down on coming into the year.
Now, everybody has changed their tune because of the destruction of an Oklahoma State team that got blown out on its home field by Tulsa and subsequently fired its long-time head coach?
Additionally, while Penn State played an FCS opponent followed by a bye week, Oregon traveled east for a conference game, then back home for the Civil War before heading back out to the East Coast.
Advantage Nittany Lions from a scheduling standpoint.
I'm personally just sticking more to my priors when it comes to these two teams. And before the season, Penn State would have been at least a touchdown favorite.
Quarterback Dante Moore has looked fantastic, but again, he's played nobody in friendly environments with clean pockets and enormous talent advantages on the outside.
This is a much stiffer test against one of the best defenses in the country, playing in prime time in front of one of college football's rowdiest environments.
I still need to see Moore perform at a high level against a real P4 defense before I buy all the way in, especially after some of the blunders I witnessed when he saw action at UCLA.
Oregon does have talent for days, but two of its most important weapons are true freshmen, who may not quite be ready to shine on this stage against a suffocating defense under the tutelage of Jim Knowles, who shut down this Will Stein attack in the College Football Playoff to end the Ducks' 2024 season with Ohio State.
From a matchup perspective, I do expect Penn State to have plenty of success on the ground, where Oregon's defense remains a bit vulnerable.
That's where everything starts for the Andy Kotelnicki offense, which features one of the best running back duos in the nation.
Maybe Penn State can't just magically turn it on after sleepwalking through its first three games without showing much, and maybe Franklin clams up again in too many big spots, and maybe Allar folds under pressure in a big game again.
But I had to lay it at what I consider a cheap price in a great situational spot.
Notable Nugget
James Franklin is just 5-12 ATS against top-five foes with only one outright victory in those 17 games. However, he has covered nine straight in "White Out" games.
Pick: Penn State -3 or Better
Louisiana ML +100 vs. Marshall
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Well, I think it's time to swoop in with a bargain buy on the Ragin' Cajuns, who have looked downright disgusting to start the season.
They started their 2025 campaign by losing outright as double-digit favorites against Rice (although I'll give them a slight pass against a brand new offense), then didn't look great against an FCS opponent before getting stomped at Missouri, and most recently lost on the road to a previously winless Eastern Michigan squad.
Not great, Bob.
Many of those issues come down to the nonexistent quarterback play after original starter Walker Howard went down with an injury in that aforementioned opener.
Daniel Beale has arguably been the worst quarterback in the country, and dual-threat Lunch Winfield hasn't looked much better in his packages.
With that said, I project Louisiana closer to a field-goal favorite against a downright dreadful Marshall team.
From a matchup perspective, Louisiana can't stop the run, but Marshall can't run it. Plus, the UL cornerbacks and edge rushers can help contain the Thundering Herd passing attack, which has relied heavily on hitting explosives.
On the other side of the ball, Marshall's secondary remains very vulnerable, but Louisiana can't really complete a forward pass — although the aerial attack did show at least some signs of life last time out.
It will be strength-on-strength when Louisiana has the ball with its rush offense against the Marshall defense, which has a clear strength up front.
I'm buying low on the Ragin' Cajuns in a great spot to regroup at home for their conference opener with revenge against the team that embarrassed them in the conference title game last season.
Notable Nugget
After last week's three-point loss, Louisiana has now gone 4-13 straight up in one-score games under head coach Michael Desormeaux.
Pick: Louisiana ML -120 or Better
Colorado +7 vs. BYU
10:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Well, it looks like we'll start things off at noon and hopefully finish up with a winner 13-plus hours later. Aren't college football Saturdays the best?
Yes, Colorado does have revenge for a humiliating bowl loss against BYU to end its season in 2024. More importantly, I just can't get to this number.
This is right around where BYU closed at ECU last week.
While BYU deserved to win that game and probably cover, it certainly did get a bit fortunate with a defensive touchdown (+2 turnover margin) and a couple of red-zone fourth-down stops in a game where the Cougars only had a net 14-yard edge.
After adjusting for last week's results, I still have the Buffaloes power-rated approximately 4.5 points higher than the Pirates without even giving any consideration for the Cougars traveling across the country to the East Coast for a high snap count affair and now back to Boulder.
Therefore, I can't pass up getting the same price as ECU got last week against BYU.
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has looked the part so far in his first three career games, but he's still a true freshman who has only faced Stanford, Portland and ECU.
This will be a step up in class in terms of the talent (and coordinator) faced.
Meanwhile, Colorado has faced a much more difficult schedule to date and finally has appeared to settle on a quarterback with Kaidon Salter, who looked fantastic against Wyoming, throwing for over 300 and adding another 86 on the ground.
I'm not sure what Deion Sanders was doing with the whole Ryan Staub experiment, but his disastrous start at Houston certainly weighs down some of their offensive advanced metrics.
Salter clearly gives the Buffs their best chance, and his legs add dynamism to the ground game.
He certainly looked very comfortable running the offense after some expected growing pains in a brand-new scheme. If he repeats that performance, the Buffaloes should have many opportunities to exploit some matchup advantages on the outside.
It's worth noting that Colorado is in much worse shape injury-wise. The Buffaloes will need someone (likely Teon Parks) to step up at one of the outside cornerback spots due to a pair of injuries at the position.
They'll also have to make do without two of their running backs and continue to deal with injuries along the defensive line, in addition to a first-half suspension for defensive tackle Anquin Barnes Jr..
It does at least appear that stud left tackle Jordan Seaton and the rest of the offensive line will come in at full strength.
Conversely, BYU looks relatively healthy and will even likely see the debut of Oklahoma State transfer Justin Kirkland to bolster the defensive front.
Still, I can't get to this number that I believe should be closer to 4 or 4.5. Keep in mind, the market bet Colorado heavily late against a very good Georgia Tech in the opener, which closed 3.5.
While the Yellow Jackets deserved to win and cover, it still took a late broken run to get to the window.
Notable Nugget
Deion Sanders has gone 9-4 ATS as an underdog, including 4-1 against the closing number at home.
Pick: Colorado +7 (Play to +6 · Shop for a +7, which did pop up on Wednesday night)
