All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Huntington, West Virginia, and Hartford, Connecticut.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money you can win on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are five games I have circled for Week 11. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, Nov. 8.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | James Madison -13.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Temple +7 |
  | 3 p.m. | Louisiana Tech -5.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UConn +9.5 |
  | 6 p.m. | Over 65.5 |
James Madison -13.5 at Marshall
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
James Madison finally stopped the quarterback musical chairs after a few weeks, and the offense has taken off.
The Dukes have rattled off six straight wins and positioned themselves as a College Football Playoff contender if the American cannibalizes itself.
Bob Chesney’s team has scored more than 50 points in back-to-back games, and quarterback Alonza Barnett III is playing his best football of the season. Barnett got off to a slow start as he recovered from a torn ACL. However, he has nine touchdown passes and five rushing scores over the past three games.
The offense is just hitting its stride, but the defense is still the star of the show.
James Madison once again has the best defense in the Group of 5 and ranks sixth nationally in Success Rate allowed. The Dukes sit in the top 10 against the run and the pass, and also create Havoc at a top-10 rate.
James Madison has allowed more than 290 total yards to an opponent just once all season. It has allowed just a single rushing touchdown since September.
At the same time, Marshall ranks 135th nationally in Success Rate. The offense is likely to struggle mightily on Saturday.
Although Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has been accurate, the Herd still dont’ push the ball down the field — he boasts the second-lowest ADOT in the Sun Belt.
James Madison is 24-24 (64%) ATS since joining the Belt and 12-7 (63%) under Chesney.
To make the playoffs, the Dukes need to win out in statement fashion.
Pick: James Madison -13.5 (-110, bet365)
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Temple +7 at Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Temple has already taken a massive step in the first season under K.C. Keeler.
The Owls are 5-4 on the year, and that record doesn’t even do the quality of play justice. They lost to Oklahoma and Georgia Tech in the nonconference and dropped a game to Navy that they dominated and should have won.
Quarterback Evan Simon has been a completely different player for the Owls. He leads the American with 21 touchdown passes and has thrown just one interception.
The running game has also been stellar with Javyon Ducker and Hunter Smith, along with Simon’s mobility.
The Department of Defense might need to increase the training at West Point, given how bad this Army team has been at preventing Explosives. The Black Knights rank 105th nationally in big plays allowed, an area the Temple offense will take advantage of.
Last week was the worst Temple has looked this season in its loss to East Carolina. The Pirates beat the Owls through the air all game, an area Army won’t be able to expose.
This is a great spot to buy low on Temple in a bounce-back spot, whereas Army is coming off a thrilling win as time expired on the road against rival Air Force.
Temple has already faced a Service Academy this season, a game it should have won against Navy. The Owls outgained the Mids by 130 yards and lost on a 50-yard touchdown run followed by a brutal missed call on the winning two-point conversion.
Pick: Temple +7 (-115, BetMGM)
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Louisiana Tech -5.5 at Delaware
3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
After starting the year with Trey Kukuk under center, Louisiana Tech quickly pivoted to Blake Baker — the Bulldogs are 4-2 since, while averaging 33 points per game.
Baker leads the conference in yards per attempt and is an effective runner along with Clay Trevenin and Omiri Wiggins, who split the backfield carries.
But this is a defense-first squad. After fielding Conference USA’s best defense last season, they are once again at the top of the conference, especially against the run. Linebacker Mekhi Mason leads the way from his linebacker position and is a Havoc machine.
The Bulldogs' defense ranks fourth nationally at creating Havoc. Mason and Sifa Leota get into the backfield and make tackles for loss, while cornerbacks Jhamal Shelby and Cedric Woods rack up PBU’s, along with safeties Jakari Foster and Jacob Fields. This secondary is nasty and ranks second nationally in passes defended.
Delaware ranks 129th nationally in rush rate, meaning it will entirely be on the arm of Nick Minicucci to beat this defense and move the ball against elite defensive backs.
That is a tough ask for the Blue Hens.
Pick: Louisiana Tech -5.5 (-112, FanDuel)
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UConn +9.5 vs. Duke
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is a perfect spot for the UConn Huskies.
For starters, UConn is a good team. Jim Mora’s squad is 6-3 and has yet to lose a game in regulation this season. The Huskies have already beaten ACC Boston College and took Syracuse to overtime on the road.
Quarterback Joe Fagnano has been brilliant. He has thrown 22 touchdown passes with a single interception, the best ratio in the country. Skyler Bell has been a monster on the outside, leading the nation with 74 catches and 11 touchdowns. Even the running game has been dominant, led by Camryn Edwards.
The Huskies rank 15th nationally in scoring, averaging 36.9 points per game. They are not a team to be slept on, and they catch Duke in a situation that is easy to overlook.
Duke is coming off a massive last-minute win, getting a victory at Clemson for the first time since 1980. Next week, the Devils will host Virginia in a game that likely determines if they reach the ACC Championship game.
This game is meaningless for the Blue Devils.
Even if Duke is focused on this game, the defense ranks 124th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and will struggle to slow down Fagnano and Bell, who have been as good as any duo in the nation.
UConn lost by just five points last season on the road against Duke, and this Huskies team is playing much better than last year’s. Now the Blue Devils head up to Connecticut in a super sleepy sandwich spot? Give me the points with the Huskies.
Pick: UConn +9.5 (-110, BetMGM)
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Air Force at San Jose State Over 65.5
6 p.m. ET ⋅ Fox Sports 1
Simple handicap: These two defenses are putrid.
Air Force has arguably the nation’s worst defense, surrendering 35 points per game while ranking 135th nationally in Success Rate allowed. They’ve allowed a whopping 7.5 yards per play, the FBS’s worst mark.
It’s ironic how poor Air Force is at defending the air, but the Falcons boast the nation’s worst PFF Coverage grade.
San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget leads the Mountain West in passing yards and touchdowns and will pick apart the secondary all game.
Danny Scudero has been the best receiver in the Group of 5 and leads the entire country in receiving yards. The Falcons have no answer for him.
For San Jose State, its defense hasn’t been much better, ranking 126th nationally in yards per play allowed (6.4). The Spartans are a poor tackling team, ranking 119th in PFF’s Tackling grades. They haven’t even played the top teams in the Mountain West, but they’ve allowed 35 points to teams like Wyoming and Hawaii.
Air Force suddenly has one of the most electric offenses in the country with quarterback Liam Szarka. He is averaging 152.4 passing yards per game and 102 rushing yards per game. He leads the Mountain West with 11 rushing touchdowns and has the Falcons sitting second nationally in Success Rate.
Both of these defenses are abysmal, and the offenses have plenty of juice to rack up the points behind two of the better quarterbacks in the Mountain West. This should be a fun one.
Pick: Over 65.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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