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If you like upsets, then last weekend was the perfect college football weekend for you. Five of the top eight teams lost in the same weekend. It was one of the best weekends of college football in years. How could anyone not love this sport?
We had a 1-2 week on the team totals selections a week ago. I deserved a losing week with the handicaps last weekend. The BYU offense really proved me wrong against Notre Dame, as the Cougars' offensive coaching staff absolutely outcoached the Irish in that contest.
It’s been a good season thus far, and hopefully we get back on the winning track in Week 8! Let's dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week's team totals.
Baylor vs Kansas Pick
The Baylor defense is on a completely different level than it was a year ago. There was a lot of talk about the new faces the Bears brought in during the offseason, and Dave Aranda has also been doing more work with the defense directly this season.
All of the changes are paying off in a big way. The Bears have yet to allow more than 19 points in a game this season while ranking 13th in the nation in Success Rate allowed and second in PPA/Rush allowed.
The defensive front is the strength of this Baylor defense.
Kansas relies heavily on the run game. Quarterback Isaiah Marshall makes some poor decisions in the passing game, and Lance Leipold and the Kansas offensive staff have increasingly leaned on the ground attack in recent weeks.
The Jayhawks rank 15th in Rushing Success Rate, but Baylor is 5th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. The Bears are giving up only 2.6 yards per carry on the season.
Kansas sits 79th in the nation in Points Per Opportunity. Well, Baylor’s defense has been elite in the red zone, ranking fifth in the nation in Points Per Opportunity allowed.
Baylor plays quickly, but its games have a tendency to be quite sloppy. These teams don’t like each other much, and I think this will be a physical battle.
Pick: Kansas Team Total Under 25.5
Confidence Rating: A-
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Virginia Tech vs Clemson Pick
Clemson's offense has been terrible so far this season, ranking 126th nationally in Offensive Success Rate and 129th in PPA/Pass.
The Tigers also sit 132nd in QBR, so the passing game has been anemic. The Clemson run game has been slightly better, but it's only 96th in the nation in yards per carry.
Clemson wants to run the football, but that plays into the strength of the Virginia Tech defense. The Hokies lead the nation in Offensive Line Yards allowed and Stuff Rate while coming in at 14th in yards per carry allowed.
The Tigers are only 89th in Offensive Line Yards, and they're likely to have a hard time pushing around this Virginia Tech defensive front.
Clemson ranks 124th in the nation in Points Per Opportunity on offense. The Tigers have scored a touchdown on only 40% of their trips into the red zone this season.
Virginia Tech is weaker in the secondary on defense, ranking 100th in PPA/Pass allowed.
Clemson quarterback Tait Reynolds hasn’t been able to stretch the field at all, though, and I don’t expect that to change overnight.
Pick: Clemson Team Total Under 26.5
Confidence Rating: B
Boston College vs Georgia Tech Pick
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are money in the bank as an underdog under head coach Brent Key, but they have struggled mightily in the favorite role.
Georgia Tech is lacking a run game. It ranks 112th in Offensive Line Yards, and it's just 87th in the nation in yards per carry. Quarterback Alberto Mendoza and the passing attack have gotten going some in recent weeks. Can they have a big day here?
The Boston College defense has been pretty impressive in recent weeks and held SMU to just 3.5 yards per play. The Eagles then held Pitt to 21 points despite the defense being put in some terrible situations.
Boston College's secondary ranks 27th nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed and 13th in pass explosiveness allowed. The safeties are the strength of this Eagles stop unit.
BC plays slowly on the offensive side and wants to run the football. Georgia Tech ranks 102nd in the nation in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
I think Boston College should have some drives that take a good amount of time in this game. The lack of tempo is helpful for unders.
Georgia Tech has yet to top 28 points in a game against an FBS opponent this season. I don’t think it'll top 28 this week either.
Pick: Georgia Tech Team Total Under 28.5
Confidence Rating: B-
