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Nebraska vs Michigan Odds & Predictions: The Team Total to Bet

Nebraska vs Michigan Odds & Predictions: The Team Total to Bet article feature image
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Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Michigan running back Donovan Edwards.

Nebraska vs Michigan Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
3:30 p.m. ET
ABC
Nebraska Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+30.5
-110
49.5
-110o / -110u
+2500
Michigan Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-30.5
-110
49.5
-110o / -110u
-25000
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Michigan came in at No. 5 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. However, its National Championship hopes were briefly put in doubt when it trailed Rutgers, 17-14, at the half last week.

The Wolverines eventually pulled away for a 52-17 victory after using a 28-point third quarter to blitz the Scarlet Knights.

Michigan improved to 9-0 (6-0 Big Ten) and propelled itself to No. 3 in the most recent CFP rankings. The Wolverines return home this week and will welcome Nebraska to the Big House.

Nebraska jumped out to a 10-0 lead over Minnesota last week but scored just three points after the first quarter. The Golden Gophers eventually rallied for a 20-13 victory. It was Nebraska’s third consecutive loss, as the Huskers now sit 3-6 overall ( 2-4 in Big Ten).

Michigan leads the all-time series, 6-4-1, and holds a 3-2 edge since Nebraska joined the Big Ten. Michigan won last season in a game that included 61 total points. Will Michigan do most of the scoring this year?


Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska quarterback Casey Thompson has completed nearly 63% of his passes this season to go along 12 touchdown passes and the fifth-best mark in the conference in passing yards per game with 252.9

However, he suffered an elbow injury against Illinois and is now dealing with nerve issues. He’s considered doubtful as of writing. Thompson missed the Minnesota game, and if he can’t go again, the Huskers will turn to Chubba Purdy.

Without Thompson, Nebraska generated just 267 yards of total offense against Minnesota.

Running back Anthony Grant accounted for 115 of those yards on the ground. For the season, Grant has 858 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 4.8 yards per carry. He ranks fifth in the Big Ten in rushing yards, and Nebraska ranks 48th in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate.

However, it will face a tall task running against Michigan this week.

Wide receiver Trey Palmer is one of the top receiving threats in the Big Ten, and he can line up in the slot or the perimeter. He’s tied for second in the conference with 53 receptions and ranks third with 819 receiving yards. Palmer has five touchdowns and is on pace for a 1,000-yard season.

Fellow wide receiver Oliver Martin has just nine catches on the year. However, he began his college career at Michigan before transferring to Iowa and then Nebraska. Now, he will look to have a big day against his former team.

The Huskers held the Gophers to just 20 points and 300 yards of total offense, but it has been a struggle on that side of the ball this season. Nebraska ranks 91st in scoring defense (29.4) and 113rd in total defense, allowing 441 yards per game.

Nebraska has struggled equally against the run and pass, ranking 107th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 104st in Passing Success Rate Allowed. The Huskers are also 118th in Havoc, 94th in Finishing Drives and 91st in Line Yards.

To make matters worse, Nebraska will be without starting safety Myles Farmer, who is suspended following a DUI arrest. Farmer ranks second on the team with 62 tackles.

His replacement will be walk-on Phalen Sanford, who along with DeShon Singleton, has played just 74 combined snaps at safety this season.

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Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is led by Heisman candidate Blake Corum, who enters this week third in Heisman odds at +600 at FanDuel.

Corum ranks fourth in the FBS with 1,187 rushing yards and is tied for the nation’s lead with 16 touchdowns. Corum has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season and has two touchdowns in five games, including each of the last three.

He’s joined in the backfield by Donovan Edwards, who is one of the best dual-threat backs in the country. In seven games, Edwards has 458 rushing yards and four touchdowns, along with 14 receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns.

Corum and Edwards run behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, as Michigan ranks 15th in Line Yards and third in Rushing Success Rate.

Quarterback J.J, McCarthy is a threat to run as well, as he has 203 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

As a passer, McCarthy has been efficient in his first season as a starter. He ranks sixth in the country in completion percentage at 70.9% and has thrown for 1,615 yards, 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Though McCarthy hasn’t put up eye-popping numbers, Michigan ranks 11th in Passing Success Rate.

The sophomore signal-caller could have had a big day through the air against Rutgers with a little more help from his receivers.

Fifth-year senior Ronnie Bell is often on the receiving end of his passes, leading the team with 41 receptions for 525 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Luke Schoonmaker sits second on the team with 30 receptions for 315 yards and two scores. He could be called upon often to exploit Nebraska’s inexperienced safeties.

Michigan hasn’t been a team that has forced a lot of turnovers, but that wasn’t the case against Rutgers. The Wolverines picked off three passes, including two in the third quarter by linebacker Michael Barrett. The senior returned one of them for a touchdown and received the second-highest grade among defensive players from Pro Football Focus.

Michigan’s defense has been among the stingiest in the country this season, ranking third in the FBS in scoring defense at 12.1 points allowed per game. The Wolverines are third in the FBS in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 10th in Rushing Success Rate and eighth in Line Yards.

The Wolverines are also 25th in pass rush grade and 10th in sacks. Versatile defensive lineman Mike Morris leads the team with seven sacks and has started to receive first-round NFL Draft buzz of late.


Nebraska vs Michigan Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nebraska and Michigan match up statistically:

Nebraska Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 48 10
Line Yards 34 8
Pass Success 67 3
Pass Blocking** 105 25
Havoc 84 31
Finishing Drives 65 41
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Michigan Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 3 107
Line Yards 15 91
Pass Success 11 104
Pass Blocking** 25 43
Havoc 17 118
Finishing Drives 14 94
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 55 1
PFF Coverage 82 4
SP+ Special Teams 101 9
Seconds per Play 24.3 (28) 29.7 (124)
Rush Rate 54.7% (59) 62.5% (12)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Nebraska vs Michigan Betting Pick

Michigan scored 32 points against Nebraska last season and will now face a weaker Huskers defense. This year, Michigan ranks fifth in the FBS in scoring offense at 42.2 points per game.

The Wolverines can improve in converting touchdowns with 34 touchdowns in 51 red-zone trips. However, Michigan still ranks fifth in the FBS in red-zone offense and 14th in Finishing Drives.

The Wolverines have scored 40 points five times this season, including two of the last three games. Michigan’s team total is set at 39.5, so exactly 40 points will do this week.

The forecast is expected to be in the low 40s with winds about 14 MPH at kickoff — a typical November forecast for a Big Ten game. However, McCarthy’s arm is strong enough to cut through the wind.

Additionally, Michigan is capable of putting up points on the board by strictly running the football. In fact, it’s just a few weeks removed from running for 418 yards and scoring 41 points against Penn State.

I like its chances of putting up 40 against a weaker Nebraska defense this week.

Pick: Michigan Team Total Over 39.5

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