The Nevada Wolf Pack takes on the Fresno State Bulldogs in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Fresno State is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 45.5 points.
Here’s my Nevada vs. Fresno State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Nevada vs Fresno State Prediction
- Nevada vs. Fresno State Pick: Fresno State -13.5
My Fresno State vs. Nevada best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Nevada vs Fresno State Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- Nevada vs Fresno State point spread: Fresno State -13.5
- Nevada vs Fresno State over/under: 45.5 points
- Nevada vs Fresno State moneyline: Nevada +400, Fresno State -550
Nevada vs Fresno State Preview
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Inefficient Offense
Nevada really played well on the road its last time out against Western Kentucky.
The Wolf Pack's defense was able to stifle the Western Kentucky passing attack while holding a lead into the fourth quarter. They have had three strong performances in a row after a season-opening blowout loss at Penn State and are fresh off a bye week in preparation for conference play.
The Wolf Pack's issues have been an inefficient passing attack. Quarterbacks Chubba Purdy and AJ Bianco have split reps, and the pair are completing just 53% of their throws with two touchdowns and seven interceptions on the season.
Nevada hasn't thrown for more than 166 yards in any game this season, and the skill position groups have very little explosiveness. The ground game has been serviceable, but up to this point, the offense has been far too reliant on Purdy creating with his legs.
There will need to be more from the offense in terms of design, play calling and getting others involved for this team to be competitive in league play.
The Nevada defense has done well against the run this season, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. The coverage unit has seen a ton of passing against it, but the Wolf Pack have limited explosive plays and are tackling well after the catch.
The defensive line has performed well in generating sacks and negative plays in recent weeks against two pass-happy C-USA opponents. However, I'll be interested to see how it goes against Fresno State this week.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Aggressive and Improved Defense
Fresno State has looked more and more like the team we thought it would be in the preseason, as the Bulldogs have won four straight games before entering the bye week last week.
The ground game has found some pop to it, and E.J. Warner has thrown the ball a lot better while cutting down on mistakes.
Fresh legs in the backfield will be critical for Fresno State and its run-heavy approach, but the Bulldogs go three deep at running back and have plenty of options for ball carriers.
Defensively, Fresno State has been improving in year one under new defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto, and last time out, we saw the stop unit completely frustrate Hawaii on the Island.
The front seven needs to generate more pressure on opposing quarterbacks, as we saw this group get picked apart late against Hawaii without being able to get to quarterback Micah Alejado.
Creating more pressure will unlock a lot for this defense.
Nevada vs Fresno State Pick, Betting Analysis
Fresno State really needed the bye week after a tough road trip against Hawaii, and I expect this team to look fresh and crisp this weekend at home against Nevada.
While we're paying a premium on the Bulldogs, I did lay it at -13.5.
Fresno State is going to do some things offensively that are schematically different from what recent Nevada opponents have thrown at it. The Bulldogs are going to run the ball a ton and use multiple tight end sets to create numbers advantages in their favor.
This spells trouble for a Nevada defense that ranks 115th in Defensive EPA Per Rush and 120th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate.
The Bulldogs will have a significant size advantage against the Wolf Pack defensive line, and being able to rotate in multiple running backs will create fresh legs in the fourth quarter.
All three of the primary ball carriers for Fresno State average over five yards per carry, and they're all explosive. This will be an issue for Nevada in the second half.
Nevada’s offense has been a mess lately, and I expect the struggles to continue here on the road. The Wolf Pack rank just 98th in Offensive Success Rate and 123rd in Finishing Drives.
They don't generate enough explosiveness from their offense to move the ball quickly, and we're unlikely to see several successful plays strung together for them to move the ball, due to their poor third-down conversion percentage and limited ability to throw the ball.
If Nevada does find its way to the red zone, nothing is assured. Only 8-of-13 red-zone trips have resulted in scores, with only three of those trips being touchdowns.
The Pack don't execute well down around the goal line, and with the personnel they have on offense, I'm betting that this trend will continue in this game.
Fresno State is going to play this game at an exceptionally slow pace. We should see a complete slow grind, with limited possessions and minimal explosives on both sides.
I trust the Fresno State offense to execute in key situations, and I feel it'll do enough to get outside the number and salt away the second half.
Pick: Fresno State -13.5
