The North Texas Mean Green take on the Western Michigan Broncos in Kalamazoo, Michigan, on Saturday, Sept. 6. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
North Texas is favored by 10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -384. Western Michigan, meanwhile, comes in at +290 to pull off the upset. The total is set at 58.5 points.
Here’s my North Texas vs. Western Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
North Texas vs Western Michigan Prediction
- North Texas vs. Western Michigan Pick: Under 58.5
My Western Michigan vs. North Texas best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
North Texas vs Western Michigan Odds
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -384 |
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
- North Texas vs Western Michigan point spread: North Texas -10, Western Michigan +10
- North Texas vs Western Michigan over/under: 58.5 (-110o / -110u)
- North Texas vs Western Michigan moneyline: North Texas -384, Western Michigan +290
North Texas vs Western Michigan College Football Betting Preview
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: Improved on Both Sides?
North Texas comes into this one off a dominant 51-0 victory over FCS Lamar last week. The revamped Mean Green defense was the story in this one, as the stop unit yielded just 119 total yards on 2.2 yards per play to the Cardinals.
North Texas had all the answers defensively under new defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity. His unit played with intensity and attitude while flying to the football all night.
Lamar went 3-for-13 on third-down conversions, achieved only eight first downs, and didn't run a play in the red zone all game.
The Mean Green offense looked sharp as well. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker — who won a highly contested quarterback battle in fall camp — completed 75% of his passes for 329 yards and three touchdowns.
He looked comfortable in the pocket, made the correct reads and spread the ball around nicely to nine different pass-catchers.
Overall, the offense executed on all cylinders, racking up 462 total yards on 6.2 yards per play.
Western Michigan Broncos Betting Preview: Offense Needs to Step Up
Western Michigan was on the wrong end of a 23-6 bout at Michigan State last week.
The Broncos defense really hung in there despite being overmatched by the Spartans. WMU made it difficult for MSU to operate offensively most of the night.
Western Michigan wasn't expected to have a very strong defense this season, but it held Michigan State to just four explosive plays and less than five yards per play overall while securing four sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
The Broncos offense was the issue here. WMU recorded only 10 first downs and 217 total yards on 57 plays.
Western Michigan rotated between quarterbacks Brady Jones and Broc Lowry, who combined to complete 16-of-33 passes for 188 yards. As a team, WMU ran for 29 yards on 24 attempts with one explosive rush.
WMU struggled to sustain drives, going 4-for-14 on third down without running a play in the red zone.
North Texas vs Western Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm going to split my wager in this game two ways for 0.75 units each. I'm taking the full-game under at 60.5 and the Western Michigan team total under 24.5.
North Texas has completely changed its team DNA with this revamped defense under Cassity. This team plays with cohesiveness, solid communication, and it flies to the ball more intently than we've seen from a North Texas defense in many years.
In prior seasons, we would have seen UNT give up 400-plus yards and 30 points to an FCS team. The defense was a weakness that cost this team dearly in prior seasons, but we saw a different bunch in Week 1, and I think this group has significant advantages in this game.
Western Michigan had far too many negative plays against Michigan State, giving up four sacks and 12 TFLs. The ground game never got going, and I can't see it happening here against a Mean Green defense that surrendered just 31 yards on 27 attempts last week.
Using two quarterbacks rarely works, and it appears the Broncos are still unsettled under poscentertion here. I'll be watching closely to see how much of the workload each of the WMU quarterbacks receives in this matchup.
North Texas has a potent passing attack, but most of the passing explosiveness came after the catch, with many of the throws being short, quick passes.
I was impressed with the WMU defense and how it held up against Michigan State and its group of receivers, allowing only two pass plays to exceed 20 yards.
I think WMU will create some problems for UNT offensively and make the Mean Green work methodically to move the ball down the field, just as it did against Michigan State.
The weather forecast is one to watch here, as we should see sustained 15-plus MPH winds with gusts up to 26 MPH — enough to affect the passing offense and kicking operations for both teams.
The Mean Green will run the ball in the second half with this game under control and salt this one away in the fourth quarter. I expect WMU to struggle offensively and UNT to control the pace of this game with its defense on the road.
Pick: Under 58.5
