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The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Ohio State is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -630. Iowa, meanwhile, enters as a +14.5 underdog and is +450 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 total points.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
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Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction
- Ohio State vs. Iowa Pick: Ohio State -14 or Better
My Iowa vs. Ohio State best bet is on the Buckeyes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Iowa Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 +100 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -630 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -122 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
- Ohio State vs Iowa Spread: Ohio State -14.5 (+100), Iowa +14.5 (-122)
- Ohio State vs Iowa Over/Under: 45.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Ohio State vs Iowa Moneyline: Ohio State -630, Iowa +450
Ohio State vs Iowa College Football Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Poised for Redemption
Ryan Day is no stranger to Iowa City. In the head coach's first season as offensive coordinator at Ohio State, the Buckeyes traveled to Kinnick Stadium for one of the biggest blowouts in Iowa history.
Day expressed feelings of horror at Big Ten Media Days this past summer, as Ohio State hasn't visited Iowa since that 55-24 loss in 2017. Nearly a decade later, Ohio State will face an Iowa team coming off a miracle finish against Michigan.
The connection between quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been elite in 2026.
Coming in as the second-most efficient passing attack in the nation, Sayin has committed just one turnover-worthy play this season despite an uptick in drops and pressure rate.
Smith is improving on his first two seasons as well, averaging the highest average depth of target and highest contested catch rate of his career.
On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes defense has struggled against the run in Year 2 under coordinator Matt Patricia. Ohio State ranks 100th in defensive rush efficiency and outside the top 60 in opponent Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Offenses electing to run man, counter, or inside zone are finding success against the Buckeyes' defensive front.
However, Ohio State's defense is having no issues defending the pass against a top-25 strength of schedule. The Buckeyes rank top-25 in Havoc, as a huge chunk of success has come from 26 pass breakups through four games.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: Old Fashioned Success
Iowa secured a last-second victory over Michigan despite a 7% post-game win expectancy.
The Hawkeyes are firing on all cylinders in the most Iowa way possible, ranking 16th in SP+ Special Teams, along with a Phil Parker defense that sits top-10 in opponent Quality Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives.
The 4-2-5 personnel is powered by linebacker Cam Buffington, who's nearly doubling every other player in tackles.
Interior defensive lineman Bryce Hawthorne has also produced eight pressures, giving Iowa elements of a top-20 pass rush and ranking in opponent rush efficiency.
The Iowa offense has generated the second-most 20-yard rushes in the country while facing the Iowa State and Michigan defenses. The downside is that the rush explosives from Kamari Moulton, Braeden Jackson, Xavier Williams, and Nathan McNeil all came against the defenses of Northern Iowa and Northern Illinois.
The Hawkeyes' rushing attack lives on outside zone, producing a high 58% Success Rate with a positive EPA.
Iowa's passing attack has been impotent so far this season, ranking 136th in Pass EPA.
Quarterback Hank Brown has yet to throw an interception, but two turnover-worthy plays have been logged against an average depth of target under nine yards.
The 50-50 balls have also not favored Iowa's passing attack, as pass-catchers Tony Diaz, DJ Vonnahme and Evan James have combined to haul in just 5-of-15 contested catches.
Ohio State vs Iowa Pick, Betting Analysis
Iowa's ability to move the ball on offense will boil down to success with outside zone. The Hawkeyes are using different personnel, but the run concept accounts for more than 85% of Iowa's rushing attempts.
That may translate to a struggle against the Buckeyes, who have a 66% Success Rate against outside zone while producing nearly a negative half-point of EPA against the concept.
Another edge for Ohio State will come in the passing game with Sayin. The Buckeyes will see quarters coverage with a small mix of Cover 3 from the Hawkeyes defense.
Sayin has been elite against quarters coverage dating back to 2025. Ohio State has overperformed against quarters since the beginning of last season, averaging a 66% Success Rate and a positive EPA of nearly a half-point on each attempt.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for the Buckeyes to be favored by 17 points, so any number at two touchdowns or less is a wager on Ohio State.
Pick: Ohio State -14 or Better
Ohio State vs Iowa Betting Trends
