Ohio State vs. Missouri Predictions & Best Bets: Our Top Picks for Over/Under & Spread in Cotton Bowl
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Missouri’s Luther Burden III and Brady Cook. Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka and Denzel Burke.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Missouri Tigers Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
By Dan Keegan
The Cotton Bowl arrives Friday night from Jerry World, featuring two programs that reached this game from vastly opposite perspectives.
The Missouri Tigers are overachievers, a surprise team that took the SEC East by storm, rolling to a 10-2 record. Eli Drinkwitz’s outfit was well-balanced, led by a trio of stars on offense and a defense that loves to create Havoc.
Blue-chip wide receiver Luther Burden III is a matchup nightmare out of the slot. Former Division II transfer and walk-on running back Cody Schrader led the nation in rush yards per game. Breakout junior quarterback Brady Cook is the straw that stirs the drink.
The Tigers lost to two of their strongest opponents — nip-and-tuck affairs against LSU and Georgia — but took care of business against the rest of their slate.
This regular season was a thrilling achievement for the program, and they're excited to cap it off with a matchup against a premier program in a showcase bowl.
They will face off against an Ohio State team that might not share the same level of motivation. For the third year in a row, Ryan Day’s Buckeyes have failed to meet their goals: beat Michigan, win the Big Ten and take home a national title.
Ohio State again played at the level of college football elite and has the advantage on paper against Missouri. But starting quarterback Kyle McCord hit the transfer portal, and star wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. is likely to opt out.
Even without those two, the Buckeyes boast far more blue-chip talent than Missouri and traditionally compete at a higher level of the sport than the Tigers.
But their respective seasons have brought them together to the same level. Will there be a differential in motivation, focus and preparation, too? Or will the Buckeyes' talent edge win out despite a quarterback change?
We polled our team of 13 college football experts to see if we could find a consensus on how to play the game. Let’s get into their picks.
Ohio State vs. Missouri Spread
Missouri +4.5
By Dan Keegan
Our team is locked in on the Tigers and the points.
Without question, motivation is at play for Missouri backers. It's an inexact science, but projecting which team wants to be in this game and wants to compete has become one of the defining factors of handicapping bowl games.
This one is no question. Look at the response from the respective fan bases: Mizzou sold out its entire allotment of tickets in a matter of hours, whereas Ohio State was unable to sell all of its portion and had to return some of the unused tickets to the bowl organizers.
Ohio State will be without quarterback Kyle McCord, who started all season and guided the Buckeyes to an 11-1 record. In his stead will be Devin Brown, a lightly used backup who will be getting his first real experience.
He will have to face a Mizzou defense that will be hungry. Coordinator Blake Baker is known for his creative and frequent blitzes; his charges ranked 13th in Havoc creation this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Tigers arrive in Texas armed with the best set of receivers that Ohio State will have faced this year.
The group is led by Burden from the slot, but Swiss Army Knife Mookie Cooper and jump-ball merchant Theo Wease round out an explosive, veteran corps. The Tigers' pass attack ranks 14th in Success Rate.
It's admittedly hard to look at the various splits and find matchup advantages for the Tigers — Ohio State was a great team in the regular season. But it will be a different, all-new version of itself Friday night in Dallas, and our staff believes the Tigers will be more motivated to claim this trophy.
Ohio State vs. Missouri Over/Under
Over 49 | 10 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 49 | 2 Picks |
Over 49
By Dan Keegan
Our team also strongly favors the over, with 10 out of 13 members of our staff opting for the total going over 49.
Despite Ohio State going with an unproven option at quarterback, Brown was a blue-chip recruit and has impressed in his month of practice leading the team.
In addition, the Buckeyes had bespoke plays in their book during the season to utilize Brown’s mobility.
Missouri struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season; LSU’s Jayden Daniels had a big day on the ground against the Tiger defense (to be fair, he did that against everyone).
Florida’s Max Brown and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson both averaged six yards per carry against Mizzou, as both were utilized as +1 rushers from the quarterback position with designed rushes and option plays.
Brown may not have McCord’s experience operating the passing attack, but he brings a new factor as a runner to the game plan that McCord did not while also being flanked by (most) of the same weapons that fueled this offense in the regular season — TreVeyon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka, Cade Stover, and possibly Marvin Harrison Jr.
It's possible that Brown will unlock a new element to Ohio State’s offense previously unavailable under McCord.
Missouri should get its points, too.
Its wideouts will be the best group Ohio State has had to defend all season. The team will be well-prepared and aggressive, considering the importance of this game to the program, and offensive coordinator Kirby Moore is a rising star as a play-caller.
The Tigers have stared down top defenses before, testing Georgia and exposing good units like Tennessee and Kansas State. The Mizzou rushing attack was not fazed by Georgia, posting a 90th-percentile effort on the ground against the Bulldogs.
Running back Cody Schrader has been one of the stories of this season in college football, and he should have a big day. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry on his way to an SEC-leading 1,489 yards on the year.
Our team thinks both squads will score. Ohio State’s revamped lineup might play right into Mizzou’s weakness, and the Tigers offense has been excellent all season. Expect both teams to light up Jerry World’s famous scoreboard.
More Ways to Bet Ohio State vs. Missouri
The staff lean here certainly resonates with me, but I think if you look at the Ohio State team as a whole, it's the better unit. Now, the question for the Cotton Bowl is, what iteration of the Buckeyes will we get?
Why is Ohio State the better team? I will get to offense shortly, but what I think has been overlooked and discounted far too heavily is how good the Buckeyes defense has been this season.
In a somewhat quiet fashion, Ohio State finished the season as the No. 2 ranked scoring defense in the nation, allowing just 11.0 points per game. After being hired in 2022, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has pieced together one of the best defenses in the nation.
Primarily utilizing a 4-2-5 look, the Buckeyes have been extremely successful against big plays this season, which was their Achilles' heel last year.
With five defensive backs on the field, they have been very successful against the pass, finishing the season as the nation’s top-ranked passing unit, giving up just 147.4 yards per game.
I think the Ohio State secondary will create a very difficult matchup for the Mizzou offense, particularly against the pass.
One might say the Tigers will just go to the ground, and that will likely be where the game plan is headed. However, the Buckeyes are no pushover against the run.
The run game also favors the Buckeyes with their 23rd-ranked rushing defense (112.5 yards per game) being pitted against the Tigers' 54th-ranked rushing offense (169.4 yards per game).
On offense, Ohio State has two key questions that need to be addressed when handicapping and betting this game:
- Is Marvin Harrison Jr. playing?
- How will the team play without former starting quarterback Kyle McCord?
Reports from the Cotton Bowl indicate that Harrison has traveled with the team but isn't practicing. The status of his plans for next season are uncertain, and if he's spotted warming up, this line will widen before kickoff.
Lastly, the Buckeyes will be starting sophomore quarterback Devin Brown. Making his first career start, Brown is the great unknown in his handicapping equation relative to known and unfairly maligned McCord.
We do know that Brown, a former four-star recruit, gave McCord a run for his money during the offseason's quarterback competition, but he missed important spring practices due to injury.
At 3.5 points, I think the spread is too short here given how good the Ohio State defense is. Even though the Buckeyes will be starting a new quarterback, the defense should provide enough cushion for Brown to shake off any rust.
If Harrison does suit up to play in what could be his last hurrah for the Buckeyes, Brown will have a much easier transition to the limelight.
I think the value is on the Buckeyes in this matchup, so I recommend laying the chalk.
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